September 12, 2024
Dale Zanine/Imagn Images
The Eagles have won four of their last five matchups against the Falcons, including a pretty big one during the 2017 playoffs.
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 2 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Bills at Dolphins (-2.5): The Bills got off to a shaky start Week 1 against the Cardinals, but once they woke up they dominated. They're still better than the overrated Dolphins, who won't have the advantage of sticking their opponent in the unsufferable Miami sun during a night game.
Raiders at Ravens (-9): It feels like the Ravens were going to put it on whoever they played Week 2 after they took a frustrating loss to the Chiefs Week 1, and the Raiders will be lambs for the slaughter.
Also, Antonio Pierce doesn't know what he's doing. Dude punted on 4th and 1 at the Chargers' 43 yard line, down 6 with 7:15 left in the game... in 2024.
Saints at Cowboys (-5.5): The Saints blow out bad teams, but lose to good ones, and for now the Cowboys are a good team. The Saints probably have a little bump right now because of their 47-10 rout over the entirely inept Panthers Week 1, but in my opinion this line should be higher than 5.5 points. I'll lay the 5.5 with the Cowboys, who should win a bunch of games until the attrition of a long season starts setting in.
Buccaneers at Lions (-7.5): A 7.5-point spread feels a little high for the Lions over the competent Buccaneers. Are we getting a little ahead of ourselves considering the Lions some sort of elite team? Because that feels like an "elite team" type of spread this early in the season against a legitimate playoff contender. Give me the Lions to win, but I'll take the Bucs with the points.
Colts (-3) at Packers: If you read my picks last week, you know that the Colts are my "underrated team to ride" during the beginning part of this season. They covered last week, but lost, which means they'll still be overlooked a bit by the oddsmakers. The Packers have one of the shakiest backup quarterback situations in the NFL, so it's especially painful for them to have lost Jordan Love for 3-6 weeks. They'll will roll with Malik Willis, who has 67 career pass attempts, and a 48.7 career passer rating. Willis also just joined the team, after the Packers traded a seventh-round pick for him a little over two weeks ago. Will he even know the offense?
Browns at Jaguars (-3): Deshaun Watson is garbage. It's never a good sign for a team when one could reasonably say, "They're better off starting Jameis Winston," but, uh, they're better off starting Jameis Winston.
49ers (-6) at Vikings: The Niners were missing Christian McCaffrey, and they still rolled 9/11 denier Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. They'll do the same to the Vikings Week 2.
Seahawks (-3.5) at Patriots: After watching the Patriots be woefully unable to protect the quarterback during joint practices with the Eagles this summer, I was kinda shocked that they pulled off a road win in Cincinnati Week 1. That was probably a fluke. The Seahawks will take care of them Week 2.
Jets (-3.5) at Titans: Haason Reddick is getting fined heavily while also probably hurting his value on the open market next year. Meanwhile, the Jets' pass rush was non-existent against the 49ers Week 1:
Jets have pressured Purdy twice on 28 dropbacks per @nextgenstats.
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) September 10, 2024
Everybody loses.
Still. "lizard people" enthusiast Aaron Rodgers and the Jets should get right against a really bad Titans team Week 2.
Giants at Commanders (-1.5): I'll consider writing an obituary for the loser of this matchup.
Rams at Cardinals (-1.5): The Rams suffered a bunch of injuries Week 1 in Detroit, most notably to Puka Nacua and a couple of offensive linemen, which is why the Cardinals are favored.
Meh. I'd be more concerned if the Cardinals had any sort of pass rush. I'll take the Rams and the points.
Bengals at Chiefs (-5.5): I picked the Bengals in my survivor pool, and was a Week 1 knockout. In hindsight, I probably should have remembered that they start slowly every year. Here is how the Bengals have fared in their first two games of the season during the Zac Taylor era:
• 2023: 0-2
• 2022: 0-2
• 2021: 1-1
• 2020: 0-2
• 2019: 0-2
Steelers (-2) at Broncos: I like Rich Eisen, but this was one of the odd tweets from Week 1:
Seattle outlasts Denver but there’s a lot to like about Bo Nix
— Rich Eisen (@richeisen) September 8, 2024
I only have to lay two points with this Steelers defense against that guy? Yes, please.
Bears at Texans (-6): If Week 1 was any indication, Caleb Williams does not look like he will have a C.J. Stroud-like rookie season, while C.J. Stroud looked a lot like C.J. Stroud.
Falcons at Eagles (-6.5): This line opened up at Eagles (-4.5), and rose two points.
As noted in our five matchups to watch, Kirk Cousins, who suffered an Achilles tear last season, could barely move in the pocket, or step into throws Week 1. He was a sitting duck against the Steelers' pass rush.
The Falcons were one of the least impressive offenses in the NFL to start the season, and it's hard to imagine things immediately getting substantially better. The Eagles' defense wasn't exactly a juggernaut Week 1 in Brazil against the Packers, but they made enough plays against a good up-and-coming team to leave with a win.
On the other side of the ball, the Falcons don't have much of a pass rush, and they only have one good cornerback. That's not an ideal recipe against A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, who remain one of the best WR tandems in the NFL. Give me the Eagles, comfortably, 34-19.
• Last 10 seasons, ATS: 399-340-20 (0.539)
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