September 15, 2016
Michael Perez/AP
Connor Barwin and the Eagles' edge rushers should be able to do some damage against the Bears' offensive tackles.
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 2 NFL picks. To note, the helmets indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Jets at Buffalo (-1.5): Playing on the road on Thursday night is difficult, and the Bills have owned the Jets recently, as they have won each of the last five matchups in this rivalry. Still, the Jets are simply the better team.
Titans at Lions (-6): The Titans are a bottom 5 team, and the Lions are coming off an impressive Week 1 win in Indy.
Chiefs at Texans (-2.5): The Chiefs absolutely spanked the Texans in the playoffs last year, 30-0. Kansas City won't have Brian Hoyer to beat up on this time around, but they're a team that has the look of a Super Bowl contender.
Dolphins at Patri*ts (-6.5): The Dolphins put a scare into the Seahawks in Seattle Week 1, but gave up the lead late, and had to fly all the way back to Miami with an L. It doesn't get any easier Week 2, when the Fins have to travel to New England to take on the Pats, who got surprisingly good play from Jimmy Garoppolo in an impressive road win in Arizona. To be determined what new cheating initiatives the Patri*ts will roll out in their home opener.
Ravens (-7) at Browns: Robert Griffin III suffered a shoulder injury that will keep him out of commission for a while, which will actually be an improvement, as Josh McCown is a better player. Ravens win, Browns cover.
Bengals at Steelers (-3): The Steelers' offense is really freaking good. They're going to be a favorite play of mine this year, especially on smaller lines, as I think they have more blowout potential than most, even over good teams like the Bengals.
Cowboys at Redskins (-3): Oof, I know both of these teams really well, and I have no idea what to think of this game. Kirk Cousins looked like a rookie Week 1, but that Dallas D is just so bad. I'll guess that the Skins bounce back a little, with no conviction whatsoever.
Saints at Giants (-5): Giants minus five? Really? Are odds-makers overrating the Giants themselves, or their win over a weak Cowboys team Week 1? Tough to say.
49ers at Panthers (-14): The 49ers looked "impressive" against what might be the worst team in the NFL (Sorry, Browns), but their winning ends here for a while, as they play in Carolina and then head to Seattle Week 3.
Buccaneers at Cardinals (-7): The Cards dropped their opener to the Brady- and Gronk-less Patri*ts, and I'm not sure they're as good as everyone thinks, but we'll take them to recover in Week 2.
Seahawks (-3.5) at Rams: The Rams' quarterback is Case Keenum. And their head coach is still Jeff Fisher. And this:
All of Rams offensive drives today:
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) September 13, 2016
-Punt
-Punt
-Punt
-Int
-Punt
-Punt
-Punt
-Punt
-Punt
-Punt
-Int
-Punt
-Turnover On Downs
-End of Game
Colts at Broncos (-6): The Colts' secondary is just so banged up that it's going to be difficult for them to stop teams with good wide receivers, which the Broncos have.
Falcons at Raiders (-5): Matt Ryan is the worst quarterback in the NFC South.
Jaguars at Chargers (-3): The Jaguars have won four road games the last five years.
Packers (-2) at Vikings: Hmmmmm... Aaron Rodgers or Sam Bradford. Rodgers... Bradford. Bradford... Rodgers. Tough decision here.
Eagles at Bears (-3): The Bears were better in 2015 than many thought they'd be, and they still only won six games. For the second straight week to begin the season, the Eagles will face a very flawed team that lines up nicely for a rookie quarterback in Carson Wentz trying to get his feet wet.
Like the Browns a week ago, the Bears don't have much in the way of proven pass rushers. The Bears' starting front seven has a combined 23 years of NFL experience and just 54.5 career sacks.
The Bears' lack of pressure in 2015 led to a lack of takeaways, as they had just 8 interceptions on the season. To put that in perspective, last year Kurt friggin' Coleman had 7 interceptions on his own.
Offensively, the Bears' offensive line sorely needs upgrades at both tackle spots, where Bobbie Massie and Charles Leno are replacement level players, at best. The Eagles win this game in the trenches, and therefore, on the scoreboard, 26-16.
• Picks against the spread: Jets (+1.5), Chiefs (+2.5), Saints (+5), Buccaneers (+7), Eagles (+3). All road underdogs this week.
• 2016 season, straight up: 9-7 (.563)
• 2016 season, ATS: 3-2 (.600)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
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