December 30, 2023
Each week during the NFL season we lay out a rooting guide for non-Eagles games on the schedule. This week, it's not so obvious which teams you should be rooting for around the league.
The standings:
| NFC East | Record | Division | GB |
| Eagles | 11-4 | 4-1 | - |
| Cowboys | 10-5 | 4-1 | 1 |
| Giants | 5-10 | 2-3 | 6 |
| Commanders | 4-11 | 0-5 | 7 |
The NFC East is a two-team race between the Eagles and Cowboys, as usual. If the Eagles win their next two games, they will win the division because they will have a better record than the Cowboys (duh). They will not win any tie-breakers over the Cowboys if it comes to that. Should we show the work on that? Alright, fine.
As a reminder, the tiebreakers for the division are as follows:
1) Head-to-head games: They split. This won't come into effect. ❌
2) Division record: The Eagles and Cowboys are both 4-1. If the Eagles lose to the Giants Week 18, and the Cowboys win out to force a tiebreaker, the Cowboys will have the better divisional record.
3) Record against common opponents: The Eagles are 4-3 in games against common opponents. The Cowboys are 4-4. A look at their common opponents:
| Common Opponent | PHI | DAL |
| 49ers | Loss | Loss |
| Cardinals | Loss | |
| Rams | Win | Win |
| Seahawks | Loss | Win |
| Bills | Win | Loss |
| Dolphins | Win | Loss |
| Jets | Loss | Win |
| Patriots | Win | Win |
If the Eagles lose to the Cardinals Week 17, the Eagles and Cowboys will both be 4-4 against common opponents, and it will go to the next tiebreaker, conference record. The Eagles and Cowboys are both 7-3 in the conference. A loss to the Cardinals would give the Eagles a fourth conference loss, so the Cowboys would win that tiebreaker if they win out.
Again, the Eagles don't have to worry about tiebreakers if they simply beat two horrid teams in the Cardinals and Giants to close the regular season.
Now, let's take a look at the rest of the NFC, and where the Eagles stand there:
| Seed | NFC standings | Record | Conf record |
| 1 | 49ers | 11-4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | Lions | 11-4 | 7-3 |
| 3 | Eagles | 11-4 | 7-3 |
| 4 | Buccaneers | 8-7 | 6-4 |
| 5 | Cowboys | 10-5 | 7-3 |
| 6 | Rams | 8-7 | 6-4 |
| 7 | Seahawks | 8-7 | 6-5 |
| 8 | Vikings | 7-8 | 6-4 |
| 9 | Falcons | 7-8 | 4-6 |
| 10 | Packers | 7-8 | 5-5 |
| 11 | Saints | 7-8 | 4-6 |
| 12 | Bears | 6-9 | 5-5 |
| 13 | 5-10 | 4-6 | |
| 14 | 4-11 | 2-8 | |
| 15 | 3-12 | 2-8 | |
| 16 | 2-13 | 1-10 |
Because the 49ers beat the Eagles Week 13, they hold that tiebreaker. The 49ers will also win any three-way tiebreaker between any combination of NFC teams because they'll have the best conference record.
If the Eagles and Lions both win out and the seeding is only between those two teams, the Lions will have the higher seed based on a better record against common opponents, as shown here:
| Common opponent | Eagles | Lions |
| Chiefs | Win | Win |
| Seahawks | Loss | Loss |
| Buccaneers | Win | Win |
| Vikings | Win | Win |
| Vikings | N/A | Win (hypothetical, Week 18) |
| Cowboys | Win | Win (hypothetical, Week 17) |
| Cowboys | Loss | N/A |
| TOTAL | 4-2 | 5-1 |
Side note: You may have noticed in the NFC standings above that we have the Lions currently holding the 2 seed, and the Eagles currently holding the 3 seed, whereas sites like ESPN, for example, have the Eagles holding the 2 seed. Some of you have asked why mine is different. The Eagles are 4-2 in games against common opponents. The Lions are 3-1 against common opponents. 3-1 (0.750) > 4-2 (0.667), so I have the Lions ahead. I (think?) ESPN and others have the Eagles ahead because they are not counting the Cowboys as a common opponent because the Lions haven't played them yet, which to me is illogical, because, I mean, they're going to play them, are they not?
Anyway, if you don't count the Cowboys as a common opponent, then both teams are currently 3-1, and then the Eagles would win the next tiebreaker, "strength of victory." If you want to ignore the Eagles' loss to the Cowboys Week 14 and feel all warm and fuzzy inside by trivially seeing the Eagles atop the Lions in the standings when in reality they're behind in most tiebreaker scenarios, go to ESPN.
If the Lions and Eagles both lose one more game down the stretch and finish 12-5, then they will finish with the same common opponent record, at 4-2. The next tiebreaker would then be "strength of victory," which the Eagles would win in most scenarios. If you want to go deep down the rabbit hole on the strength of victory scenarios, you can go through all that mess here. However, that's probably a waste of time, because if the Eagles lose one more game, they likely won't even win the NFC East, in which case a tiebreaking scenario with the Lions wouldn't even come into play.
OK, so, you got all that above? Good? Good. Let's move onto the game of highest intrigue to the Eagles, which will be played Saturday night:
• Lions at Cowboys: As noted above multiple times, if the Eagles take care of business against a couple of awful teams in the Cardinals and Giants, then what the Cowboys do in their final two games does not matter. If the Eagles win out and the Lions lose at least one game, the Eagles will be no worse than the 2 seed. Having the 2 seed is likely to be a major advantage in the divisional round, should the Eagles advance that far. It's the difference between (likely) playing the Lions in a dome in Detroit as the 3 seed vs. playing a quarterback with questionable arm strength in Jared Goff having to come to Philly and playing in the cold.
Of course, if the Cowboys lose to the Lions and the Eagles beat the Cardinals, they will clinch the NFC East, which would be something of a consolation prize, I suppose, but the Eagles should win the division on their own anyway. And if they can't, I mean, they may as well just pack it in.
Update: Actually, a tie is the best result here, as it would push the Eagles further ahead in the standings over both teams, and eliminate tiebreakers.
Update update: It appeared that the Cowboys were about to lose this game, but the officials were like, "Nah, I don't think so." So not only did Eagles fans get to see the Cowboys rightfully deserve to lose at home, they also got the benefit of the better result.
• 49ers at Commanders: A Niners loss in either of the next two weeks would open up the possibility for the Eagles to earn the 1 seed. The Niners' Week 18 game is at home against the Rams, who obviously are a much better team than the Commanders. Assuming the 49ers beat the woeful, checked-out Commanders, the Eagles need the Rams to want to win that game, which brings us to the following two games:
If the Rams win and the Seahawks lose, the Rams clinch a playoff berth, as noted by Deniz Selman. They would then either be the 6 seed or the 7 seed. There is no clear advantage having one of those seeds over the other, in my opinion, so the Rams would be almost certain to rest starters Week 18 against the 49ers. The Eagles would then need Rams backup Carson Wentz (!) and a bunch of backups to beat the Niners on the road. Spoiler: That ain't happening.
• Packers at Vikings: Deniz also makes the point that if the Vikings lose and both the Rams and Seahawks win, the Vikings are eliminated. It's better for the Eagles if the Vikings have a playoff berth on the line when they play the Lions Week 18.
• Saints at Buccaneers: If the Buccaneers beat the Saints they win the NFC South, and the Saints would be eliminated from the playoffs. The Eagles own the Saints' second-round pick, which would be no worse than 47th overall (but likely better) with a Saints loss.
As an added bonus, if the Buccaneers clinch the NFC South Week 17, they would be locked into the 4 seed, and would likely rest starters Week 18 in advance of their wildcard round game, which would be against the 5 seed, likely to be the Cowboys. (Of course, the 5 seed could also be the Eagles if the Eagles lose in devastating fashion to the Cardinals or Giants).
As always, let's fire up the PFF mock draft simulator!
• Round 1: Graham Barton, OT/OG/C, Duke
• Round 2 (from Saints): Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
• Round 2: Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU
• Round 3: Javon Bullard, S, Georgia
• Round 4: Ray Davis, RB, Kentucky
• Round 5: Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama
• Round 5: Jaheim Bell, TE, Florida State
• Round 5: Justin Eboigbe, DL, Alabama
• Falcons at Bears: And I guess it's best if the Falcons stay alive in the NFC South as well in case the Bucs don't close out the Saints Week 17.
To note, some of those games could matter to the Eagles in terms of draft order or "strength of victory" tiebreakers against the Lions. If your eyes haven't already glazed over reading all of the above, I'm not looking to ensure that they do by getting into all that.
There are no more byes.
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