December 29, 2024
For the gambling degenerates, here are the rest of our Week 17 NFL picks (Wednesday to Saturday picks here). To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Cowboys at Eagles (-7.5): Yes, the Eagles are starting Kenny Pickett, a very clear downgrade from Jalen Hurts (as shown here). They'll also be without Dallas Goedert, Brandon Graham, and likely Nakobe Dean. Those are significant losses, but they're nothing compared to the Cowboys' injury carnage. Dallas will be without their starting quarterback (Dak Prescott), their best offensive player otherwise (CeeDee Lamb), their nine-time All-Pro RG (Zack Martin), their No. 1 CB (Trevon Diggs), a dynamic, young starting linebacker (DeMarvion Overshown), and their version of Graham (DeMarcus Lawrence).
The Eagles are the better team at full strength, in my opinion, while the Cowboys have much worse injuries than the Eagles and nothing to play for other than pride. Let's not overthink this.
Colts (-7) at Giants: How bad are the Giants? Well, the Colts have a point differential of -41 and a yardage differential of -615 and they're road touchdown favorites. With a loss, the Giants will clinch at least a share of the worst record in the NFL.
There's a certain indignity to having the No. 1 overall pick, and there isn't really a quarterback in the 2025 draft who is worthy of that pick.
Raiders (-1) at Saints: I'm trying to finish with at least a 0.700 record picking games straight up, and I have to worry about this garbage game screwing that up.
Titans at Jaguars (-1): See my Raiders-Saints analysis above.
Jets at Bills (-10): Jets quarterback records since 2000, minimum 10 starts:
| Jets QBs | Wins | Losses | Winning % |
| Brett Favre | 9 | 7 | 0.563 |
| Mark Sanchez | 33 | 29 | 0.532 |
| Chad Pennington | 32 | 29 | 0.525 |
| Vinny Testaverde | 23 | 24 | 0.489 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 13 | 14 | 0.481 |
| Geno Smith | 12 | 18 | 0.400 |
| Zach Wilson | 12 | 21 | 0.364 |
| Sam Darnold | 13 | 25 | 0.342 |
| Josh McCown | 5 | 11 | 0.313 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 11 | 0.313 |
As you can see, Conspiracy Boy is tied with Josh McCown for the worst Jets winning percentage (again, minimum 10 starts) over the last 25 years. And really, he got credit for the Jets' Week 1 win last season when he tore an Achilles on like the fourth play (or whatever it was), so he's really 4-11, not 5-11. He'll officially have sole possession of worst Jets QB of the millennium after they get wrecked by the Bills.
Panthers at Buccaneers (-8): The Panthers have played hard down the stretch, but they'll be without Chuba Hubbard on Sunday in Tampa. The Bucs need to win this game to continue to put pressure on the Falcons for the NFC South title, and should take care of business.
Dolphins (-3) at Browns: The high in Cleveland on Sunday will be a balmy 58 degrees, so the soft Dolphins should be unaffected in this matchup by cold weather.
This game will likely be Tyler Huntley (Dolphins) vs. Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Browns). Give me Huntley.
Packers at Vikings (-1.5): This is the game of the week. In these two teams' first matchup way back in September, the Vikings went up 28-0, but the Packers made it a game, and ended up losing 31-29. They seemed to figure out Brian Flores' defense in the second half of that game, and it will be interesting to see if they'll be better prepared from the outset in this matchup.
Early in the season Jordan Love was beginning to earn a reputation as a guy who made his share of impressive plays, but would also make his share of dumb mistakes as well. Over the Packers' last five games, Love has thrown for 8 TDs and 0 INTs. The impressive plays remain, but the dumb mistakes have gone away. The Packers scored at least 30 points in each of those five games.
The Packers got hot to close the season in 2023, and they seem to be doing the same in 2024. I think they're better than the Vikings and I like them to win outright.
Falcons at Commanders (-3.5): This moron held up this sign at times during the Commanders' win over the Eagles last Sunday, often blocking my view.
Like, who do you think is looking at your sign, guy? You're in the last row of your section. I want nothing more than for him to go home sad in the Commanders' (likely) final home game of the season, but that's probably not happening. PSA, by the way: It's totally unacceptable to hold up signs at games unless you're like 7 years old, and even then there should be a parent there keeping that crap to a minimum.
Otherwise, this could be a fun matchup between a couple of flawed playoff contenders with rookie quarterbacks. I trust the Commanders' rookie quarterback way more.
Lions (-3.5) at 49ers: The Niners have lost five of their last six games. They beat up on the Bears in their lone win, but the combined score of those five losses was 134-60. The Lions are banged up, but they'll be eager to put a beating on the team that they felt they should have beaten in the NFC Championship Game last season.
• Last 10 seasons, ATS: 444-375-22 (0.541)
MORE: Eagles power ranking roundup
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