Week 10 NFL picks

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 10 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Bengals at Ravens (-6): After stubbing their toe on the road against the Browns, the Ravens rebounded and trounced the Broncos at home. 

The Bengals are 4-1 against teams with losing records, 0-4 against teams with winning records.

Giants (-6.5) "at" Panthers (in Germany): The Giants are too classy to tank.

Bills (-3.5) at Colts: Each season I like to identify a team that is being undervalued for one reason or another and ride them for as long as possible. This year that team for me was the Colts, mainly because of how much I like their offensive line, which is often something that gets overlooked. You'd never know it because they're 4-5 and they have all kinds of problems at quarterback, but they're 7-2 against the spread this season. But... with their starting C (Ryan Kelly) and RG (Will Fries) now on injured reserve, I think it's time to get off of them.

Another team that I felt was undervalued heading into the season was the Bills, who I believed had a good defense and the second- or third-best quarterback in the NFL, and thus remained Super Bowl contenders. I am very much not yet off of them as one of my undervalued teams. They have the second-best point differential in the NFL (+87), and a four-game winning streak. They have also scored at least 30 points in 6 of their games, which means that they can cover spreads. I'll lay 3.5 points on the road here.

Vikings (-4.5) at Jaguars: The Vikings have the No. 2 run defense in the NFL. I like their chances of getting the Jags into long downs and distances and forcing Trevor Lawrence to make mistakes while throwing to backup receivers.

Steelers at Commanders (-3): The Commanders' most obvious weakness was at corner, and they went a long way toward fixing that at the trade deadline when they dealt for Marshon Lattimore. However, one of their weaknesses that hasn't really been exposed just yet is at offensive tackle. They're starting a rookie third-round pick in Brandon Coleman at LT and a player I've never thought much of as a starter in Andrew Wylie at RT. Those guys have been decent enough so far this season, but they'll face their biggest test this season against T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith. They're due for a tough game.

Falcons (-3.5) at Saints: The Saints have lost seven straight games, including an embarrassing loss to the Panthers Week 9 that finally got Dennis Allen fired. I'm wary of the "fired head coach bump," but this line is too inviting to pass up.

Broncos at Chiefs (-8): The Chiefs have won 16 of the last 17 games in this "rivalry."

49ers (-5.5) at Buccaneers: The Bucs are 0-2 since losing Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to injury, even if they haven't been completely hopeless on offense. That offensive hopelessness is coming soon enough. 

Patriots at Bears (-6): This Bears team isn't good, and they're going to lose a lot of games down the stretch when their schedule gets harder. This is their last easy game of the season.

Titans at Chargers (-7.5): Pencil in the Chargers for a wildcard berth. Pencil in the Titans for a top 10 pick in the draft.

Eagles (-7) at Cowboys: Defensively, the Cowboys can't stop the run, and their ability to create turnovers has dried up this season after losing Dan Quinn to the Commanders and a bunch of their best players to injuries. Offensively, they can't run the ball, and now they're going to be without Dak Prescott for at least several weeks and possibly for the rest of the season.

The Cowboys were already a very bad football team this season. They're in the bottom 10 in point differential (-54), and they're ranked 25th in DVOA. That was with Prescott. Now they're going to have to try to navigate an extended stretch with Cooper Rush, who in my opinion is a lower-tier No. 2.

The Eagles haven't won in Dallas since the 2017 season. That streak will end on Sunday.

Jets (-1) at Cardinals: As a reminder, the Cardinals are my official "Fraudometer™️ team of the 2024 season. What's the Fraudometer™️? Well, if you can beat the Fraudometer™️ team, you might not be frauds. If you can't, you are. I think the Jets are frauds.

Also, I've been asked if it's pronounced "fraud-OH-meeter" or "fraud-ahm-it-ter." It's the latter.

Lions (-3.5) at Texans: C.J. Stroud is obviously a very talented quarterback who had one of the best rookie seasons in NFL history in 2023, but I've been fairly underwhelmed by what I've seen from him in 2024 so far, at least relative to expectations. Of course, he is getting no protection whatsoever from the interior of his offensive line and he's got a bunch of hurt receivers.

Meanwhile, the Lions are on fire, and I don't see any reason why they won't just keep rolling.

Dolphins at Rams (-1): This line indicates that the Dolphins are more highly valued than the Rams. Hard disagree there. The Dolphins have been trash with or without Tua Tagovailoa. I'll gladly lay a point.