April 25, 2024
Eric Hartline/USA TODAY Sports
The Sixers' defense on New York Knicks All-Star point guard Jalen Brunson has been terrific through two games, but they may add yet another option to the mix: De'Anthony Melton, who has not played more than five minutes in a game since April 9, has a chance to return in Thursday night's Game 3.
You know the whole story right now: the Sixers are entering Game 3 Thursday night at home at the Wells Fargo Center trailing the New York Knicks in their first-round series, 0-2. They were decimated on the glass in a frustrating Game 1 loss that featured a severe injury scare to reigning NBA MVP Joel Embiid. They led Game 2 by five points with fewer than 30 seconds remaining on the clock when unmitigated disaster unfolded.
But now Game 3 is hours away, and the Sixers must look forward. If they lose this game, they will be facing an 0-3 deficit that no NBA team has ever overcome en route to advancing past the series.
The Sixers are two losses away from elimination: exactly where they stood during last week's Play-In Tournament, when they beat the Miami Heat. Pressure makes diamonds; last week Nico Batum authored a legendary two-way masterpiece that may have saved the team's season.
As they return to their home floor, the Sixers have a tall task in front of them: win four out of five games against a 50-win Knicks team. Here is what to watch for in Game 3:
The most significant news out of Sixers practice from Camden, NJ on Wednesday: Melton -- who missed 39 out of 42 games between Jan. 15 and April 9, returned for two contests and then missed the Sixers' final regular season game as well as the Play-In Tournament game against Miami and the two opening games in New York City -- appears prepared to give it a go in Game 3.
Melton has logged just over 21 minutes of total NBA action since the end of February, so expectations for his workload and production should be very limited. One could craft a solid argument that the team should not even worry about reintegrating an injured role player right now given the enormity of these games. But the the Sixers' bench has largely been abysmal so far against New York, and Melton is an elite reserve when healthy (if not a solid starter, as he was for the first few months of this season).
If Melton does indeed return, the biggest question is how much he will play. That is, for the most part, likely going to be determined by the team's medical staff. But the next-biggest question surrounding Melton's return to the rotation is one that has to be answered by Sixers head coach Nick Nurse: will he simply insert Melton into his rotation and expand that rotation to nine players, or will Melton's inclusion lead to the exodus of one of their current eight regular playoff rotation pieces -- and if it is the latter, which current rotation member would be on the outside looking in?
The most popular answer might be for Nurse to stick to eight guys, with Batum replacing Tobias Harris in the starting lineup, Melton filling in for Batum off the bench and Harris to being removed from the rotation. Like it or not, that just is not happening. Harris' pedigree and improved energy in Game 2 likely have him more than in the clear for now. The much more realistic (and reasonable) player to be excised from the action is Buddy Hield.
Hield's play as a Sixer has been mostly disappointing since his ridiculous four-game heater to begin his Sixers tenure, and it has culminated in him looking useless in the playoffs. Hield has scored just two points across 26 playoff minutes, including an 0-3 shooting line from beyond the arc.
It is natural for coaches to give longer leashes to excellent three-point shooters -- and Hield's track record makes him one -- given the natural ebbs and flows that come with knocking down shots from deep over the course of a season. Patience is often a virtue, but at some point soon Nurse may have to pull the plug on Hield, who is just not giving the Sixers even close to enough production.
The Sixers did an impressive job limiting the Knicks' first-time All-Star guard as a scorer across four regular season games, but Brunson's extreme struggles through two games have been staggering. Brunson has combined to shoot just 16-55 (about 29 percent) from the field across the two contests. Kelly Oubre Jr., Batum, Harris and even Tyrese Maxey have all battled and hung in there against the NBA's fourth-leading per-game scorer this season.
It is a testament to the Knicks' team effort that they have won two games despite their offensive engine experience such extreme woes. It certainly makes them look like they would be an even more impressive playoff team than expected if Brunson gets right. It is difficult to imagine him struggling to this degree for much longer. But the Sixers' rotation includes several players who have proved to be apt when it comes to handling the Knicks' best player, and it is not remotely challenging to imagine Brunson continuing to shoot considerably below his typical percentages for much or all of the series.
The Knicks are thrilled to be up 2-0 despite their offense buffering for much of the 96 minutes that have been played, but that should not overshadow the fact that they will likely need to tighten up their performance on that end of the floor to at least some degree in order to finish off the Sixers. That does not start and end with Brunson alone, but just like the Sixers' offense often goes as Embiid goes, the emerging superstar from Villanova's performance will have a massive impact on how the Knicks look as an overall unit.
I hate to write about this yet again, but as I just said: in most cases, the Sixers' offense goes as Embiid goes. They have averaged just 103.3 points per game across their three contests thus far in the postseason (they averaged 114.6 points per game in the regular season, which was in the middle of the pack league-wide); Embiid has made only 38.2 percent of his field goal attempts during that span.
The Sixers have been able to keep games close thanks to impressive defense on Brunson and co. as well as timely scoring from Maxey. But had they gotten blown out in each of their last two games -- as they easily could have given their collective offensive performances -- Embiid's inefficiency would be a much bigger story.
This is not to say Embiid is even necessarily at fault: his mobility is extremely limited due to his knee injury, particularly after he appeared to aggravate it near the end of the first half of Game 1 against the Knicks. If not for injuries he would have been the three-time consecutive reigning NBA scoring champion, and playing at that level while your mobility is hampered borders on impossible.
There is a world where the Sixers sneak by the Knicks despite a subpar offensive showing from Embiid, but there is not one in which they get to where they truly want to go -- genuine championship contention -- without Embiid being his best self on that end of the floor, no matter how stellar his defense is.
If the Sixers want to consider themselves actual title contenders, they do not just need Embiid to be better, or even to be great. If the Sixers want to claim they have a real chance of being the last team standing, Embiid needs to be outright dominant; a destroyer of worlds similar to what we have seen in the regular season for so many years now. Is that likely? At this point, probably not. The better question is whether or not it is feasible.
