March 26, 2025
Nick Turchiaro/Imagn Images
The biggest game left on the Sixers' schedule: their final game against the Toronto Raptors on Saturday.
Welcome to Sixers tank watch 5.0, as we prepare for what could be the most pivotal week left on the Sixers' schedule in their attempt to safeguard a top-six protected first-round pick despite similar efforts from the Brooklyn Nets and Toronto Raptors. It is a big week not just because the Sixers host the Raptors on Sunday night in their final matchup against either of their main lottery adversaries, but because all three teams have genuine toss-up games this week.
As always, let's get into the current state of the lottery and preview how it may change in the next seven days:
As we have been predicting here for over a month, the Raptors are continuing to win too many games for their own good (despite doing a hell of a job keeping key players out of games). The Sixers and Nets remain tied for the No. 5 slot in the lottery with identical records, but they have a two-game cushion on the Raptors, who sit in the No. 7 slot:
What are the differences between No. 5, No. 6 and No. 7? For the Sixers, it is more significant than most, as their chances of holding onto their first-round pick and avoiding it conveying to the Oklahoma City Thunder rise dramatically with every spot they can climb from No. 7 and upwards.
These odds, as always, assume the Sixers do not end up tied with any other teams with the same record at the end of the season.
| Lottery position | Chance of keeping pick |
| 1 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 100.0% |
| 3 | 93.0% |
| 4 | 81.1% |
| 5 | 64.0% |
| 6 | 45.8% |
| 7 | 31.9% |
| 8 | 26.3% |
| 9 | 20.2% |
| 10 | 13.9% |
| 11 | 9.4% |
| 12 | 7.1% |
| 13 | 4.7% |
| 14 | 2.4% |
These odds, as always, assume the Sixers do not end up tied with any other teams with the same record at the end of the season. But it is easily conceivable that such a thing happens, especially as the Sixers and Nets have largely been knotted up for the last few weeks. Look out for some analysis of how these numbers change based on hypothetical ties in the next few days.
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Let's preview each team's slate over the next week:
Sixers: Wednesday vs. Washington Wizards (15-56), Saturday vs. Miami Heat (31-41), Sunday vs. Toronto Raptors (25-47), Tuesday @ New York Knicks (45-26)
Only the last game of this stretch, Tuesday's game at Madison Square Garden, feels like a surefire loss for the Sixers, even with superstar Jalen Brunson currently out for a Knicks team trying to find its identity without him. The Wizards have actually played a lot better since acquiring a few veterans at the trade deadline in salary dumps, but have recently returned to their losing ways. They are now in an intense battle with the Utah Jazz for the No. 1 slot in the lottery, so they should take every chance to lose seriously. The Heat, meanwhile, have completely blown up in the aftermath of the Jimmy Butler trade, only hanging around the Play-In Tournament picture because of how dreadful that region of the Eastern Conference is.
And then there is arguably the most important game left on the Sixers' schedule, when they host the Raptors the night after facing the Heat. Quentin Grimes rested on the second leg of a back-to-back on Monday night in New Orleans; expect something similar on Sunday as the Sixers look to pull out all the stops and put the dagger in the Raptors' chances of passing them in the lottery standings.
While the Sixers will play in Miami and Washington in April, this week is unquestionably their easiest in terms of schedule for the remainder of the season. A week full of losses would be a massive development for their chances of landing in that No. 5 slot and maximizing their odds of holding onto the draft pick that has become everyone's focus.
Nets: Wednesday vs. Toronto Raptors (25-47), Friday vs. Los Angeles Clippers (40-31), Saturday @ Washington Wizards (15-56), Monday @ Dallas Mavericks (35-38)
The Nets finally appear to be completely embracing the necessary tank, but they also have some winnable games on their schedule this week. As the Sixers face the Wizards on Wednesday, Brooklyn will be hosting the Raptors in the final matchup of the season series between those two teams. The Sixers are glad to know one team must lose that game.
While the Nets will have trouble against the Los Angeles Clippers amid a playoff pursuit, they also have to face the Wizards and injury-devastated Mavericks. However, Anthony Davis is back for the Mavericks, returning in a win in Brooklyn on Monday night. Davis' availability may remain limited for the time being, but he might be good enough on his own to drag the Mavericks past the Nets again. That game could certainly go either way, though.
Raptors: Wednesday @ Brooklyn Nets (23-49), Friday vs. Charlotte Hornets (18-54), Sunday @ Sixers (23-49), Tuesday @ Chicago Bulls (32-40)
The Raptors out-tanking the Sixers and Nets was just never going to be feasible with their schedule, which for the last six weeks of the season is so easy it is almost comical. Their two games against the Sixers and Nets will be the most crucial, but it would also do them a lot of good to bank a loss against Charlotte, one of the few teams worse than the three we have been focusing on here. Chicago's record is not good, but they have actually played quite well in recent weeks, with the Zach LaVine trade paving the way for excellent stretches for Josh Giddey and Coby White. If the Raptors want to lose that game, they should able to. Can the same be said for their games in Brooklyn and Philadelphia, though? Their chances of finishing the season higher than No. 7 in the lottery standings hinge on it.
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