One of the common assumptions about the Philadelphia Eagles' upcoming 2022 draft is that the team will trade back and pick up an extra first-round pick in 2023, when better quarterback prospects could be available.
The Eagles would certainly be open to trading back and acquiring future picks. Howie Roseman even said as much in January when asked about the ability the possibility of fortifying the team's 2023 draft capital by way of trading one of their three first-round picks in 2022.
"It depends on who is on the board," he said. "It's always an equation of if there is a guy on the board we think has incredible value for that pick, whether it's in the first round or second round, if we have a group of guys that we value similarly and we can move back, and I think because of the amount of picks that we have in this draft — maybe even getting picks for 2023 and getting in a situation similar to this year where we have a lot of picks, we have a lot of value, that would be good."
But how realistic is such a scenario? Out of curiosity, I looked at the last 10 drafts, and found all the instances in which a team traded back in the draft order and received a future first round pick for their trouble. It happened 10 times in 10 years. To note, these trades do not involve players who were already in the league at the time.
• The Dolphins traded the third overall pick in 2021 (Trey Lance) to the 49ers for the 12th overall pick in 2021, first- and third-round picks in 2022, and a first-round pick in 2023.
• The Eagles traded the sixth overall pick in 2021 (Jaylen Waddle) and a fifth-round pick in 2021 to the Dolphins for the 12th overall pick in 2021, a fourth-round pick in 2021, and a first-round pick in 2022.
• The Giants traded the 11th overall pick in 2021 (Justin Fields) to the Bears for the 20th overall pick in 2021, a fourth-round pick in 2021, and a first-round pick in 2022.
• The Packers traded the 14th overall pick in 2018 (Marcus Davenport) to the Saints for the 27th overall pick in 2018, a fifth-round pick in 2018, and a first-round pick in 2019.
• The Bills traded the 10th overall pick in 2017 (Patrick Mahomes) to the Chiefs for the 27th overall pick in 2017, a third-round pick in 2017, and a first-round pick in 2018.
• The Browns traded the 12th overall pick in 2017 (Deshaun Watson) to the Texans for the 25th overall pick in 2017 and a first-round pick in 2018.
• The Titans traded the first overall pick in 2016 (Jared Goff), as well and fourth- and sixth-round picks in 2016 to the Rams for the 15th overall pick in 2016, second- and third-round picks in 2017, and first- and third-round picks in 2017.
• The Browns traded the second overall pick in 2016 (Carson Wentz) and a conditional fifth-round pick to the Eagles for the eighth overall pick in 2017, as well as third- and fourth-round picks in 2017, a first-round pick in 2017, and a second-round pick in 2018.
• The Browns traded the fourth overall pick in 2014 (Sammy Watkins) to the Bills for the ninth overall pick in 2014, as well as first- and fourth-round picks in 2015.
• The Rams traded the second overall pick in 2012 (Robert Griffin III) to Washington for the sixth overall pick in 2012, a second-round pick in 2012, and first-round picks both in 2013 and 2014.
Takeaways
• In half of the above instances, the team moving back originally held a top five pick. In seven of the 10 instances, the team moving back held a top 10 pick. In fact, the lowest pick that a team moved back from while still being able to acquire a future first-round pick was at 14th overall, in 2018. Of course, the first of the Eagles' three first-round picks is 15th overall.
• In seven of the 10 above instances, the team moving up targeted a quarterback. The entire impetus for moving back would be to score more picks in 2023 because the 2022 quarterback draft class isn't believed to be of high quality. Hence, logic would dictate that other teams won't be willing to mortgage their future by moving up for one in this draft. Maybe some team would move up for some other positional player, like the Saints' moronic trade for Marcus Davenport in 2018? Eh.
So to conclude, if you're hoping that the Eagles are able to trade back with one of their three first-round picks and score a first-round pick in 2023 in the process, it's possible, I suppose, if you can find some dumbass trade partner, but I wouldn't get your hopes up.
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