October 06, 2021
Kate Frese/for PhillyVoice
PHILADELPHIA, PA - APRIL 17: Andrew McCutchen #22 of the Philadelphia Phillies looks on during the game against the St. Louis Cardinals on April 17, 2021 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.
For the 10th straight October, the Phillies are turning the page early and skipping the postseason, as their 82-80 season was not nearly enough to get them into the tournament.
And so the clock has begun ticking for the team to determine how much of their roster to run back, and how much to turnover.
The Phillies expensive core will remain in place next season, with J.T. Realmuto ($23.9 million), Jean Segura ($14.9m), Didi Gregorius ($15.9m), Bryce Harper ($27.5m), Odubel Herrera ($11.5m), Zack Wheeler ($26m) and Aaron Nola ($15.5m) combining for more than $135 in payroll. Those seven players get the Phillies around two thirds of the way to the luxury tax.
So the Phillies have to make the right decisions with the rest of their personnel. With Realmuto, Harper, Wheeler and others in their primes (or post prime?) the Phils have a ticking clock during which they must contend.
How in the world will Dave Dombrowski, Sam Fuld and the rest of the front office turn a team that barely finished above .500 into a force that can compete against the Braves, Dodgers, Giants and other powerhouses in the NL? It'll start with making the correct choices with regard to their expiring contracts, and players who have possible arbitration retention for 2022.
Here's a brief look at the major players on whom the Phillies must decide what to do over the next few weeks:
Knapp actually offers the Phillies a tougher decision than you might think. While he will be reasonable to retain via arbitration, Philly's lone farm system strength is at catcher. Will they elect to give Rafael Marchan the reigns as J.T. Realmuto's backup? Two of their other top 10 prospects as of October are catching prospects as well. Knapp's return as a back up is likely a coin flip.
Hoskins has been frustrating in his inconsistency, but he has shown he can be a productive cleanup hitter who can protect Bryce Harper. His injury to end the season is one of the reasons the team fell short of the playoffs, as Harper's MVP-caliber finish to the year was all but wasted without much talent around him in the batting order. Aside from a trade — which is possible but not likely — Hoskins will be back on a reasonable deal for 2022.
Miller certainly provided some pop off the bench this year for a team plagued with injuries. In just 377 at-bats, Miller slammed 20 homers, but he hit just .227. His roster spot would in theory be better served by having a younger player develop and contribute there, but with a subpar farm system, the team could bring the veteran back. This is another coin flip.
Harper was the Phillies MVP, but Torreyes was probably the most underrated player on the team this year, as he filled in all over the field as Phils players hit the injured list left and right. He played six defensive positions, including pitcher, and hit .244. He will be back for the spring on a cheap arbitration deal.
Here's the toughest question on the board. McCutchen has been a leader in the clubhouse during some pretty ugly years in Philly. He'll be 35 in 2022. Will his diminishing defense and .222 batting average be enough for the Phillies to say farewell? Or will they lean on his character, and 27 homers and 80 RBI from this past season as reasons to keep him around? The issue is, most of their other outfield options have been absolute duds. Adam Haseley, Mickey Moniak and Roman Quinn (more on him in a second) have been more than disappointing. There isn't really a young outfielder waiting in the wings. So the Phils can try and allocate the funds they would have paid Cutch on another free agent, or they can bring him back for what is definitely a higher than market price deal.
The thinking here is they'll cut him loose and agree to a buyout, as they'll no doubt want to find a better way to spend that $18 million. They then could still consider him to come back at a lesser rate — but not before they try and find a younger outfielder with some upside this winter.
Phillies fans will surely be frustrated to learn that with three years of arbitration ahead, the Phillies are likely to bring back Quinn for at least one more year. And with no real outfield depth behind Harper, he may be on the big league team in 2022.
Jankowski was okay in small doses, hitting .252 with just one homer and 10 RBI in 157 at-bats. He's got a good chance at being a camp body in March with an opportunity to make the 26-man roster.
Eflin is under team control for one more year, and assuming he bounces back from a season-ending injury, he'll be back in a rotation that is locked in to feature Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Kyle Gibson in 2022. They'll have to find not only a fifth starter but some real depth this offseason, and decide if Ranger Suarez can do it for an entire year as a SP.
The Phillies bullpen utilized 32 different pitchers in 2021 — and the results are known to all. They had one of the worst pens in baseball once again, blowing a franchise record number of saves. One could argue, convincingly, that the Phillies relief pitching staff may have been the biggest reason for them missing the playoffs again.
How much Dombrowski and the front office decide to rebuild the bullpen will be an interesting facet of the offseason. The Phillies do have a handful of relievers under team control — meaning they are on their original minor league deals pre arbitration eligibility — such as Sam Coonrod, Connor Brogdon and JoJo Romero. But they will also need to make decisions on quite a few important arms.
Bradley, Kennedy and Neris will command relatively lucrative free agent deals while they can keep Alvarado and Dominguez under team control for cheaper arbitration deals. The team has not exactly had good luck spending big money on bullpen arms of late, but they are also lacking on reliable in-house options. We'll see how they address the pitching staff, but expect to wave goodbye to more than a few familiar pitchers over the next few months.
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