April 18, 2024
Kyle Ross/USA TODAY Sports
Ranger Suárez after his complete game shutout of the Rockies back in April.
The Phillies are 11-8, fresh off their first three-game win streak of the season.
It's early, but the trends are both troubling and encouraging, depending on how you look at things. The offense has been extremely up and down– mostly down though – all while the starting pitching has helped to keep an unreliable bullpen from making things too ugly.
With an off day to let things settle before 14 straight games without any rest, here are five thoughts on the Phils so far this season...
The Phillies swept the lowly Rockies this week and should be able to do the same against the 3-15 White Sox, who are coming to South Philly for a series this weekend. This is a good thing. There will be plenty of battles against contenders to come this summer, but the Phillies need to pad the standings with wins against the worst teams in the majors if they want to be in the mix for the NL East (they are currently two games behind the Braves).
After Chicago, the Phils will face the Reds (9-9), the Padres (10-9), the Angels (9-9), and the Giants (8-11), all four teams with fringe postseason hopes. They also play the Marlins (4-15) and the Nationals (8-10) before the month of May is over.
There is a really good chance the Phillies are in, or still close to first place by the end of this month. They just have to continue to lean into how much more talented they are than most of the other squads they'll be facing.
Submitted for your approval: The Phillies starting rotation is the best in the National League, and is in the top 3 in the entire majors in all of the categories below:
| Category | Stat | NL Rank |
| ERA | 2.54 | 1st |
| Wins | 7 | 1st |
| BAA | .208 | 1st |
| Quality starts | 11 | 1st |
| Pitches per start | 92 | 1st |
| IP | 109.2 | 1st |
| Strikeouts | 117 | 1st* |
With Taijuan Walker nearing his return, it will be interesting to see what the Phillies decide to do. Not only have Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suárez — fresh off a complete game shutout earlier this week — pitched like aces so far, but Cristopher Sánchez and Spencer Turnbull have also pitched extremely well during their turns with the baseball.
The Phillies are somehow 11-8 despite scoring fewer than four runs per game (the fourth fewest in the NL). The rotation is likely the biggest reason for this.
Baseball is a sport that very often relies on numbers to tell its stories. The Phillies' approach at the plate has not been a good one so far — the numbers make this clear. No team in the National League has made weaker contact — 87 MPH average exit velocity — than Phillies hitters. They have also seen the second-fewest number of pitches per at-bat of any team in the NL.
Add those together and you get what the eye test sees: a team that isn't putting together good at-bats.
The Phillies swing at the first pitch 35.9% of the time, second behind the Braves. They also swing and miss 20% of the time, one in every five pitches seen, fourth most in the NL.
After entering spring training dead set on becoming better at their pitch selection at the plate, it looks like there's a lot of work left to be done.
One more knock on the offense: They have not been efficient on the base paths. They've made outs trying to steal bases eight times this season, in contrast to 17 successful stolen bases. That 68% rate is one of the worst in baseball. It's one thing if the offense is hot, and you're getting lots of chances. This unit currently isn't. Which might be why they're pressing more when they are on base.
Rob Thomson is a guy who likes being aggressive and he likely has no problem with the decisions his veterans are making. But better situational baseball — and awareness — is required all around.
It's early, but there is one MVP candidate in town right now: shortstop Trea Turner. He's turned it on over the past couple of weeks and leads all Phils hitters in batting average (.329), on-base rate (.386), extra-base hits (tied with eight), steals (tied with four) and is second in runs scored and slugging percentage.
Bryce Harper has been extremely up and down so far this season. Kyle Schwarber has been his home run or bust self. Nick Castellanos has been about as bad as it gets.
Brandon Marsh has been excellent and is worth shouting out for his offensive performance so far, but the team really needs to have multiple of the $20+ million a season stars hitting well at the same time if they want to truly dominate.
Turner is doing his job. We'll see how long it is until another guy steps up.
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