January 08, 2025
The Phillies don't intend to sit and wait for Andrew Painter. They learned that lesson the hard way.
A few seasons ago, with Painter mowing down hitters in Spring Training, many were already slotting the organization's top prospect into a rotation slot for the 2023 regular season. But the then 20-year-old had some seemingly minor issues in his elbow that led to his getting shut down, and eventual Tommy John surgery — a procedure and recovery that had the hurler sidelined for over a year.
Painter returned to the field a few months ago under the radar in the Arizona Fall League where he appeared in six games, throwing 15.2 innings with a 2.30 ERA, 18 strikeouts and four walks. It was enough to impress.
Over at MLB.com, 30 league executives were polled and there was a ton of love — and some exceedingly high expectations — put on the 2021 first round pick.
When asked who is the best current pitching prospect in the sport, 10.4% of respondents said Painter. Detroit's Jackson Jobe, Cincinnati's Chase Burns and Pittsburgh's Bubba Chandler were the only pitchers receiving more votes.
Who is the most likely breakout prospect for 2025? The third most votes went to Painter. Which prospect has the best fastball? Painter got nearly 20% of the vote, the most of any pitcher.
This isn’t only about who lights up the radar gun the most. These days, metrics come into play, with life, command and the ability to miss bats with it all figuring into the equation. Andrew Painter may have missed two years following Tommy John surgery, but anyone who saw him in the Arizona Fall League should have no problem with him topping this list. It was up to triple digits, it was explosive and outside of one or two outings in which he didn’t have pinpoint control of it, he threw it where he wanted to. [MLB.com]
Painter also got the third most votes for "most pitchability," at 9.8%.
There is a clear plan for Painter's 2025 season. He is expected to be in Clearwater, and then chill for the early part of the season. Phillies' president Dave Dombrowski said he wants to see Painter ramping up mid-summer so that he can pitch the rest of the season with no innings limitations.
"The basic way I would describe it is, he'll throw, but not plan on pitching him in spring training," Dombrowski said on NBC Sports Philly back in December. "We're going to push the innings back — I don't think our plan is going to change and Andrew understands the plan, we think its a good plan — he'll build up at some point in the minors, in an extended program but we're going to save a lot of his innings until we get to July-ish at the big league level. But of course, if you're going to pitch him in July, it might be June, it might be August, you can't use too any of them at the minor league level."
It's possible he makes a leap to the Phillies rotation in the second half of the season if there is a slot open (if any of the expected starters — Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Cris Sánchez or Jesús Luzardo is hurt down the stretch, Painter could "Willy Pip" them).
Two other prospects got some love, in the category of "most underrated." Both Aidan Miller and Justin Crawford were among nine youngsters who got multiple votes in the poll.
Crawford also got 14.6% of the vote when front officers were asked which prospect had the best speed — the third most votes. Crawford had 89 steals over the last two seasons in the minors.
Former Phillies prospect, Starlyn Caba, was the choice for best defensive prospect in the poll. He was sent to the Marlins in the Luzardo trade earlier this offseason.
Miller, Painter and Crawford are the Phillies current top three prospects respectively.
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