August 11, 2024
Joe Camporeale/USA TODAY Sports
Bryce Harper appears to have gotten things back on track over the last week after what might have been his worst slump since joining the Phillies.
Looking to build on the momentum they created with an impressive series victory in Los Angeles last week against the Dodgers, the Phillies traveled to a place where many of their recent memories are not good ones — Chase Field in Arizona — for a four-game set against the Diamondbacks.
The Phillies won the series opener on Thursday night, 6-4, thanks to five strong innings from Kolby Allard and some timely hitting. They scored two runs late in Friday's game, but the struggling Jeff Hoffman allowed a walk-off home run in the ninth inning as the Phillies fell, 3-2. Saturday quickly turned from shaky to disastrous for the Phillies, as a lackluster Aaron Nola start and eventual bullpen blowup led to an 11-1 loss. In the series finale, the Phillies jumped out to an early lead before Cristopher Sánchez got knocked around en route to a 12-5 loss.
After their first night in Arizona, the Phillies had a three-game winning streak. They departed on a three-game losing streak.
Here is what jumped out most from these four games:
J.T. Realmuto recorded an out in each of his first three plate appearances on Thursday night, and it felt as if things could not get any worse for the Phillies' veteran catcher, whose slash line of .242/.303/.365 in that moment represented career-worst marks in all three major hitting categories.
Realmuto, who missed nearly six weeks of action with a knee injury before returning on July 20, had not record and extra-base hit since May 28. But in his fourth at-bat on Thursday, he finally broke through:
Sheeeeesh J.T.#RingTheBell pic.twitter.com/Ift0BhJzQA
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) August 9, 2024
Realmuto doubled in his next at-bat to put icing on the cake, showing the exact signs of progress that the Phillies were hoping to see. If his final two plate appearances on Thursday did signal the beginning of a resurgence, it could not be coming at a better time: Nick Castellanos has had a strong month, but nearly all of the team's other middle-of-the-order bats have struggled mightily. In Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm, Phillies manager Rob Thomson has a group of four hitters at the top of his lineup who will be feared by all pitchers regardless of their recent performance. But that lineup will not do enough damage to win at the highest levels if players like Realmuto, Castellanos, Brandon Marsh and Bryson Stott fail to produce at the plate.
When Orion Kerkering allowed a two-run home run to Diamondbacks outfielder Jake McCarthy in the sixth inning of Thursday's win, it was not just another sign of a young player running into trouble and struggling in recent weeks: it was the end of a marvelous streak.
It marked the 212th time that Kerkering was facing a major-league hitter in the regular season or postseason when McCarthy stepped up to the plate,. But when the ball flew off his bat and landed in the right field seats, McCarthy became the first big-league batter to ever hit a home run against Kerkering. All it took was 53 appearances for one of Kerkering's nasty sliders to be crushed.
There is no doubt that Kerkering has sputtered a bit over the last month or so, but the significance of the McCarthy homer underscores how excellent the rookie reliever has been since his rush to the majors in September of 2023.
When the Phillies returned from the All-Star break with a road trip, Kerkering had poor command of his pitches and continually stumbled on the mound. Kerkering made three appearances during that road trip, allowing five earned runs and only recording six outs. But he seemed to right the ship in his next five outings, in which he allowed five hits and just one unearned run.
It appeared as if Kerkering was reverting back to the shakiness he had hoped to leave behind Thursday: after allowing two runs on the McCarthy homer, Kerkering put the next pair of batters on base. But then he responded, inducing a fielder's choice to nab the first out and then striking out consecutive batters with runners on the corners to end the inning and keep the Phillies ahead.
Kerkering does not look nearly as strong right now as he did during his blazing start to the season, and for a team with World Series aspirations, that is somewhat concerning. But even after the brutal road trip and the first home run allowed of his career, Kerkering owned numbers that any team would gladly take out of a key bullpen arm — let alone one in his first full major-league season: following Thursday's setback, he still sported a 2.47 ERA with a 2.56 FIP and opposing slash line of .237/.313/.308.
Kerkering received another chance to rebound on Sunday. He struck out the first two batters he faced, but the next one reached on an error by Bohm and the following pair of hitters got on base. Kerkering escaped the jam Bohm put him in by notching a third strikeout. The run was officially unearned.
As the Phillies' prolonged skid reached rock bottom, so did their most accomplished hitter, as Harper endured a slump that might have been worse than any he had ever experienced in a Phillies uniform prior to 2024. The two-time National League MVP had a nine-game stretch in which he went 2-38 at the plate with 14 strikeouts to three walks. In the team's final game at the Seattle Mariners last week, though, Harper collected three hits — including a home run. But despite the Phillies winning the following series — a crucial three-game road set against the Dodgers — Harper went just 3-14 with a double in Los Angeles.
While many of the Phillies' key hitters came up short for much of this series, Harper did his part. In the series opener, he hit two singles and a double, then accounted for one of the team's two runs the next night with a solo home run hit the opposite way. He drove in their only run during a two-hit game the following night as well.
It goes without saying that the Phillies need Harper clicking at the plate to be World Series contenders — though, of course, many other issues remain. Harper is prone to massive hot streaks after slumps, and the Phillies could sure use a heater from him soon.
When Yunior Marte took the mound on Saturday night, the Phillies were down, but not out. It was the bottom of the seventh inning, and the Diamondbacks had a 4-1 lead — formidable, but not insurmountable — after Aaron Nola surrendered a two-run homer to McCarthy that spoiled what would have otherwise been considered a good start.
Marte walked the first batter he faced on four pitches. Then he allowed a single, a two-run double, a two-run homer, a single, another single and a three-run homer. Things went from bad to worse incredibly quickly for Marte and the Phillies, who went from having a slim chance at coming back to having their doors blown off by the team that eliminated them last season.
Marte's final line on Saturday: 0.2 innings pitched, six hits and seven earned runs. In one appearance in which he only recorded a pair of outs, Marte's ERA rose from 4.63 to 7.13. In his last six outings, Marte has now allowed 13 earned runs in 6.2 innings pitched -- good for a 17.55 ERA.
Clearly, Marte is not going to be someone Thomson relies on for crucial innings down the stretch of the season and in the postseason. He could very well be optioned as soon as Tuesday after the Phillies take advantage of a travel day on their way back home. But his continued blowups highlight the problematic depth of this bullpen.
On the left side, two high-leverage options in Matt Strahm and José Alvarado — with Tanner Banks as a viable candidate to face lefty pockets of opposing lineups -- is surely satisfactory. But on the right side, despite having three strong weapons in Kerkering, Hoffman and Carlos Estévez, there is a glaring hole for one more arm who is at least serviceable.
When October arrives, let's say the Phillies need to use a right-handed reliever other than the three aforementioned options: who is Thomson summoning from the bullpen?
It certainly will not be Marte. José Ruiz profiles as a long reliever, not someone who should be in games in crucial spots. Spencer Turnbull returning from injury and being effective out of the bullpen is perhaps their best bet, but his rehab process was delayed after he reported soreness, Corey Seidman of NBC Sports Philadelphia reported on Saturday. Max Lazar, who was called up from Triple-A on Friday, made his major-league debut the next night in relief of Marte and retired all four hitters he faced, but could very well be optioned back to Triple-A on Tuesday when the team is expected to active Taijuan Walker from the Injured List. Walker himself is far away from proving to be a genuine candidate to pitch in October. Tyler Phillips will likely remain stretched out as a starter for the time being.
The only other right-handed pitchers on the Phillies' 40-man roster are Dylan Covey, Seth Johnson, Michael Mercado, Michael Rucker and Freddy Tarnok and Kyle Tyler (who was claimed from the Miami Marlins, placed on the 40-man roster and optioned to Triple-A on Sunday afternoon). Of those six, only Covey and Mercado have ever taken the mound for the Phillies in a regular season game, and neither has been particularly successful.
The most important aspect of a bullpen in October is the quality of its trusted arms. But even if Thomson's preferred options perform well in the postseason, he will very likely need at least one more right-handed relief pitcher who can take down three outs in the middle innings of a game. Right now, it is unclear if that player exists in the organization.
Bohm drove in Turner and Harper with his league-leading 43rd double of the year in the top of the first inning on Sunday afternoon, and there was a sigh of relief: the Phillies had an early two-run lead, and if they could just take this game and escape a stadium that has continued to haunt them with a split, they could have a pleasant cross-country flight and have a bit of momentum when they return home.
But with the way this team has played for the last month and change, it was never going to be that simple. Cristopher Sánchez, who had possibly been the team's most consistent pitcher during this lengthy downturn, had a rough outing at the worst possible time. The Phillies' lead shrunk and then evaporated before the Diamondbacks jumped out it front and -- again -- poured it on.
For as good as he has been in 2024, Sánchez has had a few brutal starts this season. Sunday's game, though, was his worst of the year when factoring in both his performance and the context.
Sánchez's final line was ugly: 4.2 innings pitched, 12 hits (career high) and seven earned runs (tied for career high). His season-long ERA rose from 3.27 to 3.63.
Up next: The Phillies will now finally return to Philadelphia, and they'll be back in action on Tuesday when they host the first of two games against the Miami Marlins before the Washington Nationals come to town for four games. Getting back on track against the two National League East teams who are out of the playoff race is essential, as the Phillies' schedule really heats up for a couple of weeks following this six-game home stand.
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