December 12, 2022
Is Jalen Hurts on his way to being the first NFL MVP in Philadelphia since Norm Van Brocklin in 1960? The betting markets say yes.
MVP odds have shuffled between Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen over the course of the 2022 season. Over the last 4-6 weeks, it's increasingly become a two-QB race between Hurts and Mahomes. I thought Mahomes may have been pulling away with the award, but after three-straight dominant offensive performances from Hurts and the Eagles, Hurts is currently the favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
A look at the odds on DK:
| Player | Team | Odds |
| Jalen Hurts | Eagles | -115 |
| Patrick Mahomes | Chiefs | +150 |
| Joe Burrow | Bengals | +750 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | Dolphins | +2000 |
| Josh Allen | Bills | +2000 |
We do not live in a world where I have an MVP vote (yet!), but I'd go Hurts here. I thought Mahomes was distancing himself from Hurts for a bit, but this torrid three-game stretch from Hurts that's coincided with some decidedly non-Mahomes performance from Mahomes has shifted me. It's Hurts' award to lose right now. If the Eagles end up 14-1 and rest their starters the final two weeks of the season, gift wrap that thing and ship it to Philly and save everyone some time.
A statistical comparison between the two:
| Stat | Hurts | Mahomes |
| Record | 12-1 | 10-3 |
| Completion % | 68.0 | 65.8 |
| Pass Yds | 3,157 | 4,160 |
| Pass TDs | 22 | 33 |
| Yds/Attempt | 8.1 | 8.1 |
| INTs | 3 | 11 |
| Passer RTG | 108.4 | 103.4 |
| Rush Yds | 686 | 280 |
| Rush TDs | 10 | 2 |
While Mahomes' raw passing numbers are better, Hurts has improbably been just as efficient of a passer as Mahomes, if not slightly more so. If the Eagles hadn't been in so many blowouts this year, I'd imagine Hurts would be closing in on 4,000 yards through the air in his own right. For all the fanfare that surrounds Mahomes' outrageous flip passes and the like, Hurts can match him with his singular highlight-reel runs, too.
The narrative here for Hurts as a guy continuously written off in his collegiate and pro career turning into this caliber of a QB while possessing game-breaking abilities in the run game is a huge factor at play for voters, coupled with the Eagles' league-best record.
I saw some MVP tickets for Hurts in the offseason in the +1800 to +2200 range. If you hopped on that, great shop.
I'm sure Hurts himself ultimately cares more about ending his season like the 1960 Eagles did, winning the championship, rather than picking up the personal accolades that Van Brocklin did along the way to a title.
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