December 31, 2024
Week 17 of the NFL season is in the books, and 14 teams in the NFC are either in the playoffs or eliminated. We have one new obituary this week, the mediocre Seattle Seahawks.
The Seahawks will miss the playoffs for the third time in four seasons. The one year they made it they were the 7 seed and they got stomped by the 49ers in the wildcard round.
25 active quarterbacks have at least one playoff win:
Not listed above: 34-year-old Geno Smith, who the Ringer thinks is the 8th-best quarterback in the NFL, lol. With the season on the line Week 17, Smith's offense scored 6 points against the dreadful Bears. I mean, they won, 6-3, but they deserved to be eliminated from playoff contention after that performance, which they eventually were after the Rams won on Sunday.
Interestingly, Smith has a lot to play for Week 18, even though the Seahawks are eliminated:
There's a lot on the line for Geno Smith in Week 18 although Seattle can't make the playoffs. His $10M 5th day of 2025 league year roster bonus can increase by as much as $6M. It's $2M each for a 10th win, 185 more passing yards & his 70.2 completion % staying above 69.755%.
— Joel Corry (@corryjoel) December 30, 2024
Geno Smith would earn the $2M escalator for his completion percentage being above 69.755%. The $2M for 10 wins would still be in play because his offensive playtime for the season would be at least 80%. He would fall short of the 4,282 passing yards for the other $2M. https://t.co/YHgLGfrBk5
— Joel Corry (@corryjoel) December 30, 2024
Of course, the Seahawks can just not pay those escalators at all if they cut or trade him before the fifth day of the new league year in March.
Smith threw for 17 TDs vs. 15 INTs this season. Beyond avoiding paying Smith those above bonuses if they cut or release him, the Seahawks can also save a substantial amount of money off of their 2025 cap. That feels like a no-brainer to me, but teams will often latch onto mediocre quarterbacks rather than braving the unknown. See Daniel Jones.
The Seahawks made the playoffs 14 times from 2003 to 2020. They were consistently contenders during those years. More recently they've become mostly harmless — a team that has a chance to maybe make the playoffs with a lucky bounce here or there, but no threat at all to do big things. That's a bad place to be in any sport.
8) Falcons (8-8): 2nd quarter, 46 seconds to go, Falcons up 14-7, ball at the WAS 36, all 3 timeouts in their pocket...
Michael Penix completes a pass to Darnell Mooney for 12 yards to the WAS 24. Cool! Call timeout. Tick tick tick. Call timeout. Tick tick tick. Call timeout. Tick tick. Are you kidding me? What f*** are they doing? 26 seconds run down, and Penix completes a pass to Kyle Pitts for 3 yards, out of bounds at the WAS 21. 16 seconds left.
Two incomplete passes and a field goal later, and the Falcons jogged into the locker room with all three of their timeouts. Awful.
OK, so that's bad enough.
But then...
4th quarter, 40 seconds to go, tied up at 24, ball at their own 19, 2 timeouts in their pocket...
Penix completes to Mooney for 25 yards to the 44. Cool! Call timeout. Tick tick tick. CALL TIMEOUT! Tick tick Tick... LOL REALLY? AGAIN? This time, 23 seconds run down, and Penix throws incomplete to Mooney. They then take two shots down the field, both incomplete, followed by a gift WAS offsides penalty and a WAS pass interference penalty.
They're now at the WAS 38, and they still have their two timeouts, but there are only two seconds left. And so they're forced to try a 56-yard field goal, which is short.
And then they lost in OT.
Fire everyone.
Last week: 8
7) Buccaneers (9-7): The Bucs' yardage totals over their last six games:
Six game average: 464 yards per game. I mean, it's not as if they played the '85 Bears during that stretch, but that's still pretty impressive nevertheless. This is an explosive offense.
6) Commanders (11-5): Excitement for this team is through the roof at the moment, as it should be given their last 30 years of incompetency, but it's fair to note that they would be 9-7 and on the outside of the playoffs looking in if DeVonta Smith doesn't drop an easy pass and the Falcons' game clock management were at least on a Pop Warner level. And that's not even mentioning the Hail Mary.
Prior to their matchup with the Falcons on Sunday Night Football, I noted on social media that a Commanders win would put them in the 6 seed slot, and knock the Packers down to the 7, which would be a bad draw for the Eagles. I was surprised by the level of disagreement I received in return, that the Packers would be the more ideal opponent. A very common sentiment was that "the Packers can't beat the good teams," seeing as they are 0-5 against the Lions, Vikings, and Eagles.
Uh, OK. The Commanders have beaten one team that has clinched a playoff berth, the Eagles (duh), who were without their starting quarterback.
Last week: 65) Rams (10-6): The Rams have three straight wins without scoring 20 points:
The Rams clinched a playoff berth Week 17 after starting the season 1-4, but their recent success won't be sustainable in the playoffs if their offense doesn't wake up.
4) Packers (11-5): As noted above the Packers are currently the 7 seed in the NFC. If they beat the Bears on Sunday and still remain in the 7 seed spot, the Packers will be the best 7 seed in NFL history by record and likely also by DVOA. Of course, the NFL only expanded to a 14-team playoff in 2020, so it's a small sample size, but let's take a quick historical look at past 7 seeds, with their records and DVOA:
| 7 seed | Record | DVOA |
| 2024 Packers (pending) | 11-5 | 4 |
| 2022 Dolphins | 9-8 | 8 |
| 2020 Colts | 11-5 | 9 |
| 2023 Steelers | 10-7 | 9 |
| 2022 Seahawks | 9-8 | 11 |
| 2023 Packers | 9-8 | 13 |
| 2021 Eagles | 9-8 | 15 |
| 2020 Bears | 8-8 | 24 |
| 2021 Steelers | 9-7-1 | 24 |
Last week: 4
3) Eagles (13-3): Of course, if indeed the Packers are the 7 seed, the Eagles will have to play them in the first round, again, as noted above. And oh by the way, remember the last time the Eagles played the Packers in the playoffs and the Packers were the lowest seed?
With 38 Days Until Packers Regular Season Football....
— Cream City Central (@CreamCityCtral) July 29, 2019
Throwback ⬇️
Tramon Williams (@HighRizer22) picks off Michael Vick’s pass in the 2010 NFC Wild Card Game to seal the victory! #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/mdWNamapx3
Anyway, I remain resolute that Green Bay would be an awful first-round draw. It's not as bad as finishing 14-3 and only getting the 5 seed though, which is what is going to happen to either the Vikings or Lions.
Last week: 3
2) Vikings (14-2): This happened after the Vikings' win over the Packers:
THAT’S OUR FREAKING QUARTERBACK pic.twitter.com/pEo4aqPHen
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) December 30, 2024
Football is very different than baseball in that regard. In the NFL, there aren't usually raucous celebrations unless you win it all. Like, the players are certainly giddy and loud and happy after big wins, but you don't typically see anything like in the above video. In baseball, tarps are erected and guys are getting wrecked in the locker room after they clinch the division, and after every playoff series win on the way to the World Series.
Which one is right? I really don't know. On the one hand, maybe the Vikings just have a great team culture and the players really like each other? If so, that's a good thing. On the other hand, it's a regular season win over a team you've already beaten, that doesn't even clinch anything. Maybe act like you've been there before? Curious where you all stand on this:
Last week: 2
Last week: 1
MORE: Sirianni is 'still not there' on decision to play Barkley, Eagles starters Week 18
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