January 02, 2024
A wild Week 17 of the NFL season is in the books, and the NFC playoff picture is coming into clearer focus. We have one new obituary this week, the Minnesota Vikings.
In 2022, the Vikings played an easy schedule and finished with a 13-4 record despite a point differential of -3 and a DVOA ranking of 28 (!). As such, they were about as good a candidate for regression as imaginable. And sure enough, they'll finish with at least five fewer wins than they did in 2022. It's fair to note that Kirk Cousins was lost for season with a torn Achilles, and the Vikings finished up with guys like Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens, and Jaren Hall, but it's also fair to note that the Vikings were still only 4-4 in Cousins' starts.
Here are the last 10 playoff teams that had a negative point differential and what they did the following season (not including 2022):
| Team | Point differential | Record the next season? |
| 2021 Steelers | -55 | 9-8, no playoffs |
| 2021 Raiders | -65 | 6-11, no playoffs |
| 2020 Browns | -11 | 8-9, no playoffs |
| 2019 Texans | -7 | 4-12, no playoffs |
| 2017 Titans | -22 | 9-7, no playoffs |
| 2017 Bills | -57 | 6-10, no playoffs |
| 2016 Lions | -12 | 9-7, no playoffs |
| 2016 Dolphins | -17 | 6-10, no playoffs |
| 2016 Texans | -49 | 4-12, no playoffs |
| 2014 Panthers | -35 | 15-1, playoffs |
So, you know, nine in a row. There were actually three other teams in 2022 that made the playoffs with a negative point differential — the Dolphins (-2 in 2022), Giants (-6), and Buccaneers (-45). The Dolphins are in, the Giants are out, and the Bucs... we'll see.
The Vikings will have to decide this offseason if they want to pay Cousins big money to come back or start over with a young guy. I sympathize with their beat writers on that boring-ass main offseason storyline.
10) Falcons (7-9): Last week we noted that all of the following had to happen for the NFC South to be won by a team with a losing record:
The Bears did indeed beat the Falcons and the Saints beat the Bucs. Halfway there!
(Oh, and if that happens the Falcons will win the NFC South.)
Last week: 10
9) Saints (8-8): The Saints and Falcons will be playing each other, while also watching the score of the Bucs-Panthers game. If the Bucs beat the Panthers, the Bucs clinch and the Saints and Falcons are out. If the Bucs lose, the then the winner of the Saints-Falcons game will win the NFC South.
Last week: 9
8) Seahawks (8-8): It's been a roller coaster season for the Seahawks. At one time they were 6-3 and in first place in the NFC West. Then they lost four straight, looked like they might miss the playoffs, and heads would roll. Then they won two straight nailbiters against the Eagles and Titans to get them back into playoff position.
And then this past weekend at home against the Steelers... they lost to Mason Rudolph. Oof.
The Seahawks can still get in, but they're at the mercy of the Packers.
Last week: 6
7) Packers (8-8): If the Packers beat the Bears Week 18, they're in the playoffs.
On the one hand, this season feels like a success for the Packers, in that Jordan Love had a bunch of good games and made a lot of really impressive plays, even if he was inconsistent. The Packers are a very young team and can feel good about the direction of their franchise after transitioning from Aaron Rodgers to Love. On the other hand, if they lose to the Bears, it sure won't feel that way.
Love played collegiately at Utah State, so it's not as if he has a lot of big game action under his belt. Getting into the tourney and getting one playoff game under his belt could be beneficial down the road, even if the Packers have no reasonable chance of going to the Super Bowl.
Last week: 7
6) Buccaneers (8-8): The Bucs had a chance to close out the Saints for the NFC South title on Sunday. They did not. Baker Mayfield took some big shots in that game, and Tampa is only a 5.5-point favorite in Carolina Week 18. Earlier this season in Tampa, the Bucs escaped with a 3-point win, so, you know... we'll see.
On a personal note, my preferences of cities to visit for a wildcard trip would be:
Last week: 5
5) Eagles (11-5): I think that one of the logical fears that arose after the Eagles promoted Matt Patricia was that the defense's performance would look significantly better under his watch than it did under Sean Desai's simply because they were playing Drew Lock, Tommy DeVito, and the freaking Arizona Cardinals, while Desai had to face the hardest schedule in the NFL. And perhaps those artificial improvements would spur the team to keep Patricia on full time as the defensive coordinator going forward in 2024.
And yet somehow, the defense has been even worse since the Eagles made the switch. So at least there's that, if you're into crappy silver linings.
Why are the Eagles still as high as 5th in the hierarchy, you may ask. Well, during his postgame press conference, Nick Sirianni reminded us all that the Eagles have clinched a playoff berth, which is something a lot of other teams haven't done.
"We are in the playoffs," he said. "A lot of teams want to be in the playoffs. We are in the playoffs. We still can do some things here and our goals are still in front of us. Can you get the 1-seed? Can you win the division? I know you can't get the 1-seed now, but can you still win the division? Yes. Stick together because we still have goals, and we still have things that we want to accomplish."
He's right! The Eagles are certainly in the playoffs, and other teams are not, so we'll keep them at 5th in the hierarchy for now, ahead of the teams that have not yet qualified, but there's a decent argument to be made that they'll be the worst performing playoff team in the league heading into the postseason when the seeds are set next weekend.
Last week: 3
4) Rams (9-7): Welp, we previously killed off the Rams when they started 3-6, but they won 6 of their last 7 games and clinched a playoff berth. So let's officially reanimate them:
The last time I brought a team back from the graveyard was in 2012, when Washington started 3-6, and then won their final 7 games.
Last week: Graveyard
3) Cowboys (11-5): You already know what happened in the Cowboys-Lions game on Saturday night, so I don't think it needs further explanation, right?
Maybe the Cowboys get a couple of big plays, get into field goal range, and kick a game winner in 23 seconds, but it's much more likely that they would be 10-6 right now with a three-game losing streak if the officials hadn't handed them a win.
Last week: 4
2) Lions (11-5): That wasn't the first time that the officials gifted the Cowboys a win in a Cowboys-Lions game. During the 2014 playoffs, the officials flagged Dallas for defensive pass interference, announced the penalty, and then decided to pick up the flag and say, "Nope, nevermind, not a penalty," on what was indeed very clearly defensive pass interference. That was a major win probability-shifting play that helped allow Dallas to come back and win.
The following week was the game in which the officials correctly determined that Dez Bryant did not survive the ground on a play that would be a catch in 2024, but not in 2014 when the rules were a little different. Obviously, Cowboys fans have bitched about that play for a decade when in reality they probably shouldn't have even participating in that game in the first place.
It's also funny to me that after their team had been handed a win on a platter on Saturday, "Micah Parsons" was trending on Twitter because their fans were complaining that he gets held sometimes.
Last week: 2
1) 49ers (12-4): After their win over the Commanders at FedEx Field on Sunday, the Niners watched Jalen Hurts and the Eagles try a Hail Mary for the win over the Cardinals, and then celebrated when he got picked off, thus clinching the 1 seed and getting two weeks off.
Dan Snyder had to buy that TV when he bought the Skins pic.twitter.com/32we2a6ZAc
— Tony Niehaus (@BigT44DFS) January 1, 2024
That TV is hilarious. I'm pretty sure I know exactly where that is, and I think I watched the Vikings lose to the Bears on that bad boy in 2018, thus clinching a playoff berth for the Eagles.
(Also, it's worth noting here that the officials' bunging of the Cowboys-Lions game allowed the Niners to clinch early and rest starters Week 18, which is a pretty nice advantage.)
Last week: 1
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