December 26, 2023
Eric Hartline/USA TODAY Sports
DeVonta Smith is seeing what Eagles fans are seeing from home.
Week 16 of the NFL season is in the books, and it's time to wonder if there are any great teams in the NFC (or even the NFL)... at all. There are no new obituaries this week.
Rams (8-7): We killed off the Rams after a bad 20-3 loss to the Packers which dropped them to 3-6. They have since won 5 of 6. Oops. I'm only bringing them back if they make the playoffs, which is looking likely at this point. Just thought I'd quickly define the terms. Until then, they remain buried.
10) Falcons (7-8): It's more fun when the NFC South teams lose, but the Falcons, Saints, and Bucs all won Week 16.
All of the following has to occur for the NFC South to be won by a team with a losing record:
So, it's possible, but very unlikely. 🥺
Last week: 10
9) Saints (7-8): After the Saints' loss to the Rams on Thursday night, Ian Rapoport reported that the Saints were likely to run it back with Derek Carr and Dennis Allen in 2024.
From The Insiders on #NFLPlus: A look at the #Saints and fallout from last night's loss... pic.twitter.com/CQvjJjhDjR
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 22, 2023
The Saints are low key one of the worst run franchises in the NFL, that only seemed to be competent because Drew Brees and Sean Payton hid so much for so long, but that report can't possibly be right, can it?
Like, if I'm a Saints fan and they try to subject me to another season of Derek Carr, I'm just not watching.
Last week: 7
8) Vikings (7-8): I kind of get Nick Mullens' decision to try to force a ball into Justin Jefferson with the game on the line. I mean, he's Justin Jefferson. But this is an awful throw, and it's hilarious how open No. 4 (Brandon Powell) is at the bottom of the screen. There isn't a defender within like 20 yards of that guy.
THE @LIONS PICK IT AND WILL CLINCH THE NFC NORTH. #DETvsMIN pic.twitter.com/EYMCu0ddkZ
— NFL (@NFL) December 24, 2023
Also, wait what?!? The Vikings have rookie Jaren Hall available and they were choosing to start Nick Mullens?!? WHY?!?
Vikings are taking a long look at whether to bench Nick Mullens, ride with rookie Jaren Hall. https://t.co/TB7xVefj2P
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) December 26, 2023
Last week: 8
7) Packers (7-8): The Packers narrowly edged out the Panthers Week 16, which, OK fine, a win is a win, I guess.
Tommy DeVito, Baker Mayfield, and Bryce Young have combined for 62 of 85 (72.9%) passing for 851 yards, 7 TDs, and 0 INTs against this Packers defense the last three games.
Last week: 9
6) Seahawks (8-7): In Week 15, the Seahawks drove 92 yards in 10 plays in 1:24 for a TD to beat the Eagles 20-17.
In Week 16, they drove 75 yards in 14 plays in 2:24 for a TD to beat the Titans 20-17.
In win probability form:
Last week: 5
5) Buccaneers (8-7): The Bucs' final two games are against divisional opponents. They host the Saints Week 17, and play in Carolina Week 18. If they win either game, they win the NFC South. If they beat the Saints Week 17:
I realize that this is more about the Eagles than it is the Buccaneers, but, like 90+% of my readers are Eagles fans, so... 🤷♂️. Anyway, Eagles fans should be huge Bucs fans Week 17.
If any Bucs fans read this, yes, your team is doing well recently.
Last week: 6
4) Cowboys (10-5): The Cowboys' loss to the Dolphins didn't matter much in terms of their chances to win the NFC East. It really only mattered in terms of their chances of maximizing their seeding in the NFC if they did win the division.
If the Eagles are able to take care of business against the Cardinals and Giants the next two weeks, the Cowboys will very likely be the 5 seed. Out of curiosity, I went back and looked at the records of all the 5 seeds since 1990, when the NFL moved to a 12-team playoff (6 in each conference). During that span, there were 66 teams that were 5 seeds.
• Overall record: 35-64 (0.354)
• NFC/AFC Championship Game appearances: 7 (10.6% got that far.)
• Super Bowl appearances: 2 (3% got that far)
• Both teams that made it to the Super Bowl won it. (2007 Giants, 2020 Buccaneers)
In other words, you don't want to be the 5 seed.
Last week: 2
3) Eagles (11-4): During the Eagles' postgame locker room session, DeVonta Smith gave a critical assessment of the way the offense has been playing:
“We’ve got two weeks to get it together.”
— Tim McManus (@Tim_McManus) December 26, 2023
DeVonta Smith with a blunt assessment of the state of the offense. pic.twitter.com/Y5WfomVDu3
Minutes before Smith spoke, Nick Sirianni was basically like, "Good job, offense."
Way to fight@novacare | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/RknTCEkFB6
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) December 26, 2023
That contrast is interesting. It feels to me like the player is seeing bad process, and isn't happy about it, while the head coach seems happy with the results. It's usually the other way around.
Last week: 3
2) Lions (11-4): The Lions clinched the NFC North, something they haven't done in 30 years.
| Year | NFCN winner | Year | NFC North winner |
| 1994 | Vikings | 2009 | Vikings |
| 1995 | Packers | 2010 | Bears |
| 1996 | Packers | 2011 | Packers |
| 1997 | Packers | 2012 | Packers |
| 1998 | Vikings | 2013 | Packers |
| 1999 | Buccaneers | 2014 | Packers |
| 2000 | Vikings | 2015 | Vikings |
| 2001 | Bears | 2016 | Packers |
| 2002 | Packers | 2017 | Vikings |
| 2003 | Packers | 2018 | Bears |
| 2004 | Packers | 2019 | Packers |
| 2005 | Bears | 2020 | Packers |
| 2006 | Bears | 2021 | Packers |
| 2007 | Packers | 2022 | Vikings |
| 2008 | Vikings | 2023 | LIONS! |
Before this past weekend the Buccaneers had more recently won the NFC North (or Central or whatever — whatever the one with the Packers, Bears, Vikings and Lions was called at the time).
In addition to clinching their first divisional title since 1993, the 49ers lost, the Cowboys lost, and the Eagles looked very shaky against the garbage Giants. Big day for Detroit.
Last week: 4
1) 49ers (11-4): In the fourth quarter of the 49ers' loss to the Ravens on Christmas night, Brock Purdy, who had thrown four interceptions, was injured.
Purdy is down with an injury. He is slow to get up and Sam Darnold is coming in. #BALvsSF pic.twitter.com/GbaMBw57Ew
— Rate the Refs App (@Rate_the_Refs) December 26, 2023
It was deemed an unserious stinger. He was replaced in the lineup by Sam Darnold, who finished off that drive by going 4 of 5 for 31 yards and a TD pass, narrowing the Ravens' lead to 14.
When the 49ers got the ball back again, still down 14, it was still a winnable game with 4:45 left to play. During the telecast, Joe Buck relayed that the Niners' medical staff had cleared Purdy to return to the game, but Kyle Shanahan opted to continue to roll with Darnold the rest of the way.
Do not get it twisted — If your starting quarterback is available to play in a winnable game and you choose to play a different quarterback instead of him, the injury provides some fake cover, but that is effectively no different than benching the starter.
Last week: 1
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