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January 14, 2025

NFC Hierarchy/Obituary: Divisional Round edition

How do the remaining NFC teams measure up with three rounds of playoff games to go?

Eagles NFL
011425JordanLove Bill Streicher/Imagn Images

Jordan Love winds up to overthrow a receiver by 10 yards.

The Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs is in the books, and the four NFC playoff teams remain alive. We have three obituaries, for the Green Bay Packers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Minnesota Vikings.

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Obituary: Packers

Jordan Love was a hipster NFL MVP pick for some before the season began. He played poorly down the stretch in the regular season, and he was abysmal in the Packers' loss in Philly. What could he have possibly seen on this throw that he ripped it with such confidence?

In addition to poor quarterback play, the Packers also simply got their asses kicked. I mean, literally. The following players got hurt against the Eagles and did not return:

  1. WRs Jayden Reed
  2. WR Romeo Doubs
  3. LG Elgton Jenkins
  4. C Josh Myers
  5. RB Josh Jacobs
  6. DT Devonte Wyatt

They were simply overwhelmed by a more physical team.

That's not the first time the Packers have gotten beaten up in the playoffs during the Matt LaFleur era. Remember in the 2019 NFC Championship Game when the 49ers' Jimmy Garoppolo only attempted eight passes and the Niners ran it down the Packers' throats all night like they were a 1980's Nebraska team playing Prairie View A&M?

The Packers are the youngest team in the NFL and Love is a talented player who is going to have a long career as an NFL starter, but this team simply was not yet ready to compete with the big boys. 

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Obituary: Buccaneers

With about five and a half minutes to play and a three point deficit, the Buccaneers faced 3rd and inches at the Commanders' 11 yard line. The Bucs tried to get the Commanders to jump offsides, but rookie center Graham Barton snapped the ball prematurely and Bucky Irving was dropped for a 2-yard loss. A breakdown of the Bucs' pre-snap nonsense:

They settled for a field goal and never got the ball back, as the Commanders bled out the rest of the clock and kicked a walk-off field goal.

Crazy idea here: Maybe just run a play (QB sneak, maybe?) and get an inch instead of trying to rely on the other team to give you a freebie.

For as good of a defensive schemer as Todd Bowles is, the Bucs always seem to experience late-game situational gaffes. Last season in the playoffs, for example, the Bucs could have called a timeout and made the Lions kick a game-sealing field goal:

But instead, Bowles was like, "Meh, you guys can just run out the clock, best of luck in the next round."

The Buccaneers won their fourth consecutive NFC South title this year. No team in the NFL has benefited more from playing in an otherwise atrocious division. The three other NFC South teams have a combined record of 78-126 (0.382) with a combined point differential of -724 during the Bucs' four-year streak. Those three other teams are likely to be bad again in 2025, so we'll be right back here writing the Bucs' obit after the Wild Card Round once again.

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Obituary: Vikings

There were some terrible quarterback performances in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs this year, but none was worse than Sam Darnold's, as he was sacked nine times by the Rams defense. The most damaging play of the game was of course the sack-fumble-score near the end of the first half.

Darnold's offensive line wasn't good, certainly, but all night I found myself almost sympathetically yelling, "THROW IT!" And he just didn't. It was like he was paralyzed in the pocket at times, afraid to let it rip.

The Vikings folded meekly a week ago in Detroit with the 1-seed on the line, and then basically no-showed in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. Their loss was a big win for the folks who wondered how this team won 14 games and stuck to their guns all season that an eventual collapse was inevitable. (I'll admit that the Vikings won me over at some point in the season. Oops!)

Kevin O'Connell is probably going to win NFL Coach of the Year honors, an award that is given based on regular season success. It has also become a curse heading into the playoffs.

Year  NFL Coach of the YearPlayoff results 
 2023 Kevin Stefanski, Browns14-45 loss to Texans 
 2022Brian Daboll, Giants 31-24 win over Vikings
7-38 loss to Eagles 
 2021Mike Vrabel, Titans 16-19 loss to Bengals as the 1 seed 
 2020 Kevin Stefanski, Browns48-37 win over Steelers
17-22 loss to Chiefs 
 2019John Harbaugh, Ravens 12-28 loss to Titans as the 1 seed 
 2018 Matt Nagy, Bears15-16 loss to Eagles 
 2017 Sean McVay, Rams13-26 loss to Falcons 
 2016Jason Garrett, Cowboys 31-34 loss to Packers as the 1 seed


O'Connell has now lost two playoff games to teams that had negative point differentials during the regular season (h/t Noah Becker).

My "Teams that made the playoffs in 2024 but won't in 2025" power rankings:

  1. Vikings
  2. Steelers
  3. Chargers

Darnold will likely be on some other team in 2025. My condolences to that team's fans.

Graveyard

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Hierarchy

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4) Rams (11-7): The Rams entered the playoffs as the 26th ranked defense by DVOA. BUT... they've been a lot better of late. If one were to throw out the Week 18 game during which the Rams sat their starters, they have held each of their last four opponents to single-digit points: 

• At 49ers: 12-6
• At Jets: 19-9
• Cardinals: 13-9
• Vikings: 27-9

Also, I owe Sean McVay and the Rams an apology. I questioned why they would rest starters instead of trying to improve their seeding, which would have helped them avoid a matchup with the loser of the Vikings-Lions game Week 18. Perhaps they saw how trash the Vikings were, assumed they'd lose to the Lions, and then felt confident they could beat them in the Wild Card Round? They'll never publicly admit that, if so, but kudos. 

Last week: 7

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3) Commanders (13-5): No matter what happens from here on out, the Commanders' season is an enormous success, having won 12 regular season games plus one in the playoffs. They have also had a lot of jubilant finishes: 

I'd have gone with the TV feed on those, not the All-22, but whatever.

Last week: 6

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2) Eagles (15-3): How many games have the Eagles played this year in which they won comfortably and Jalen Hurts either didn't play well or didn't need to so he wasn't asked to throw all that much? I can think of like a half dozen off the top of my head. They can survive that way for one more round, but it'll get real after that.

Last week: 2

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1) Lions (15-2): Heading into the weekend the Lions could have faced the Vikings, Rams, Commanders, or Packers, depending on the outcomes of Wild Card weekend. They're currently nine-point favorites, but if I'm the Lions, the last team I'd want to face of that group of teams is the Commanders. There's something about Jayden Daniels' unique talents that would worry me in ways that those other teams would not.

Last week: 1


MORE: Cowboys move on from HC Mike McCarthy: What does it mean for the Eagles?


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