November 02, 2020
While you were likely busy settling in for an utterly hard-to-watch Sunday Night Football game between the Eagles and Cowboys, MLB free agency officially opened for 2020 and, at least for the first night, all was quiet on the hot stove front.
About the only bit of news to come out of the baseball world on Sunday was the revelation of which players received qualifying offers. And while the Phillies had two such players you could argue were worthy of receiving the one-year, $18.9 million offer in J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius, it was only the former who actually received one. However, he's looking for a much more lucrative deal that would make him the highest-paid catcher of all time.
The Phillies could certainly still be the team to sign him — and should be, given not only Realmuto's talent level and contributions to the team, but also because of what they gave up to acquire the two-time All-Star. In fact, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, one of the outlets that have been linking Realmuto to the two teams in New York, believes that the Phillies will re-sign the veteran catcher. And not just that, they think they'll also sign two other Top 30 free agents, including Gregorius for a significantly less AAV than the qualifying offer would cost them.
2. J.T. Realmuto (C, Age 29)
After signing big-name, big-money free agents each of the prior three winters and failing to make the playoffs, can the fourth time be the charm for the Phillies?
Prediction: Phillies, four years, $100 million.
17. Didi Gregorius (SS, Age 30)
He rebounded impressively in his first full season back from 2018 Tommy John surgery.
Prediction: Phillies, three years, $36 million.
27. Mike Fiers (RHP, Age 35)
His first venture into the open market since he became best known for blowing the whistle on the Astros’ sign-stealing.
Prediction: Phillies, one year, $7 million. [nypost.com]
So first, there's a lot to break down there. Let's go player-by-player.
Realmuto: If that's the cost for Realmuto, you do that deal in a heartbeat. It's always been the years that worried me with a 29-year-old catcher who plays a ton of innings. But a four-year deal at $100 million would give Realmuto that record for AAV for a catcher ($25 million) and would allow the Phillies an out if age started to catch up on him in the later years.
Gregorius: Again, given what he contributed in his first season in Philly, this seems like it would be another great deal. The qualifying offer of $18.9 million, even if only for one year, just seemed a little too steep. And getting Gregorius for three seasons at a decent price tag of $12 million per year would certainly help the Phillies on the field, even if it might push them closer to (perhaps over?) the luxury tax threshold they've been trying so hard to avoid.
Fiers: The Phillies need starting pitching help, and while this would be a one-year rental, any sort of upgrades to the starting rotation would be helpful. They're getting Jake Arrieta's big contract off their books, so look at it as trading that AAV for a $7 million veteran starter who, let's be honest, probably can't be any worse. And even if he's not all that much better — he had an ERA a half-run lower than Arrieta in 2020 — it won't hurt as much because the price tag isn't nearly as high.
If the Phillies are able to retain Realmuto, catcher obviously no longer becomes a need for the Phillies. And bringing back Gregorius is more of a luxury than a true need, as the Phillies could always move Jean Segura back to shortstop.
But there are other areas that are in greater need of an upgrade, regardless of what happens with their top two free agents in Realmuto and Gregorius. As we mentioned, starting pitcher is obviously one. A bigger concern is their worst-in-baseball bullpen. And they could also use some help in the outfield, specifically in center field.
Over at Inquirer.com, Matt Breen took a look at those three positions specifically, and offered up some names for the Phillies if they want to land a big-name starting pitcher, like Trevor Bauer or Marcus Stroman, or a top reliever like Liam Hendriks or Shane Greene. He also took a look at centerfield, which was the fifth-worst in baseball offensively, where the Phillies could try for a big upgrade.
George Springer, arguably the best hitter available, should attract several suitors, so the Phillies can’t be thrifty if they want to land him. The 31-year-old hit .265 last season as Houston’s leadoff hitter with a 140 OPS+ in 51 games. His 15.8 WAR over the last four seasons is the 16th-best among all hitters and is roughly a win better than Bryce Harper and a win less than J.T. Realmuto. Adding Springer, a right-handed hitter, would give a boost at the top of their lineup.
If Springer’s price tag -- and length of contract -- scares away the Phillies, there’s another option. Boston’s Jackie Bradley Jr. hit just .234 with a .727 OPS from 2017 to 2019 before hitting .283 last season with a .814 OPS in 55 games. Bradley, a first-time free agent, has always been an elite defender and he may have shown last season that he’s still able to be the productive hitter he was early in his career. [inquirer.com]
Obviously, if the Phillies are able to re-sign Realmuto, that would change their approach here and elsewhere, but if they don't, it's clear they'll have other options to replace his production at the plate, even if they can't replicate his defensive play behind it.
As soon as the Phillies make a move — or there's any new rumors or breaking news relevant to Philly fans — we'll be sure to keep you updated. In the meantime, you can get all the latest right here in our live tracker...
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