June 14, 2023
Several weeks away from training camp, Eagles fans are starved for football. Aside from continuously wondering when the new Kelly green alternate uniforms are going to be available to buy, Philly wants to know how Jalen Hurts is going to follow up on his MVP-caliber, Super Bowl-bound 2022 season.
On the final day of OTAs, Hurts was a bit off at practice, but I imagine the quarterback himself forgot about that performance as soon as he left the field. I urge Eagles fans to do the same (only after you read my play-by-play observations though).
I'm expecting a full-throttle fourth NFL season from Hurts where he has the Birds back in the championship mix once again, but I don't think his stats are going to look quite like what we all saw last fall and winter. Taking a peek at Hurts' over/unders for the 2023 campaign, I'm going to predict four of Hurts' main stat lines.
(all over/unders taken from DraftKings SportsBook)
Hurts eclipsed this mark in 2022, but could've easily smashed through the 4,000-yards mark if the Eagles weren't just beating up on teams for most of the season and taking their foot off the gas pedal in a lot of second halves. The Eagles' schedule is much tougher this year after a first-place finish and an inter-confertnce matchup (and Super Bowl rematch) with the Chiefs on the way, so don't expect another 8-0 or 13-1 start that has Eagles fans throwing their recliners back in stress-free relaxation.
There will be some shootouts for the Birds in 2023.
OVER.
Prediction: 4,187 passing yards
My line of thinking is the same here. Last year, 14 of Hurts' touchdown passes came in the first half. Eight came in the second half, per pro-football-reference. That disparity won't be as great this year. As I'll get into with the rushing TDs, I do think the Eagles will run less with Hurts in the red zone, so I'm planning on seeing a jump in passing touchdown numbers, too.
OVER.
Prediction: 28 touchdowns
I'm expecting the Eagles to be more reluctant to utilize Hurts as a runner than they have during the first two years of the Nick Sirianni era. Hurts' big 2022 injury was a shoulder sprain that came on a run against the Chicago Bears in Week 15. The Eagles are lucky that things worked themselves out and Hurts had time to recover before the postseason came, but they were cutting it close for sure. The organization as a whole, fresh off the massive contract extension Hurts signed, is going to want to protect him as much as possible.
No, they're not going to ban him from running, of course. You don't have a player of Hurts' talent and just throw away his athleticism and decisive playmaking with the ball in his hands, but there's a middle ground where you mitigate some risk and let Hurts do his thing in high-leverage situations or the postseason. I'm assuming the designed runs will be cut down early in 2023 before seeing a spike come the stretch run and the playoffs.
UNDER.
Prediction: 598 rushing yards
Akin to the way my passing yards take informed passing TDs prediction, the same is true for Hurts in the running game. The Eagles were unstoppable in the red zone with their rushing attack in 2022. Despite cowardly teams' attempts to stop their "Tush Push" play, that formation lives on for the Eagles to utilize. Someone might say, "Well, the NFL has an offseason to figure out how to stop that," but how in the world do you stop Jordan Mailata, Landon Dickerson and Dallas Goedert from punching you in the mouth while Hurts grinds his way into the end zone?
Still, I'm leaning towards the Eagles' crew of running backs getting early red zone touches to keep Hurts as fresh for as long as possible. Hurts, of course, is still going to get his and put up some nice numbers, but going for double-digit rushing TD numbers for the third-straight year is so wild that it might just be hard to replicate. I'll go under on this one as well.
UNDER.
Prediction: eight rushing touchdowns
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