November 18, 2017
It's almost here.
After what feels like a month without Eagles football following their bye week, the Birds return to action Sunday night to take on division-rival Dallas in primetime.
The Cowboys are in desperation mode. The Eagles are sitting pretty. But when these two NFC East rivals meet up, fireworks are likely. So maybe it will be worth the wait.
All the talk that's led up to this one, especially with the extended break for the Eagles, will need to be backed up on the field as Doug Pederson's team looks to hold on to its place atop the NFC standings and improve to 9-1 on the season. More importantly, a win would put the Birds at 4-0 in the division and all but assure them a playoff spot heading into the final month and a half of the season.
We've already offered our predictions on the game – and rounded up a slew of different picks from around the country – but now it's time to look at five numbers worth following on Sunday night.
That's the current total being offered by Bovada, and if you take a look at our staff predictions, that's right around where we see it finishing up. Two of us have it hitting the over – Jimmy Kempski (50 points) and myself (51 points) – while only Kyle Neubeck (47) has the under, and barely at that.
With the Eagles averaging 36 points themselves over their last five games, it's getting tough to take the under in their games. The problem, however, is their defense, which is allowing just 17.4 PPG in that span. In other words, you never know when the Eagles are going to hit the over themselves, like they did against the Broncos in Week 9, or when they might hold the opposition to so few points that even a 33-point performance from the offense isn't enough to get them there, like when they beat the 49ers 33-10 in Week 8.
Being that this game is on the road, and the Cowboys offense, even without Ezekiel Elliott, is good enough to score some points, I think the 48.5 total is well within reach in this one.
OVER.
Dak Prescott was sacked eight times last week against the Falcons. EIGHT!
The Cowboys will likely make some adjustments to give a bit of help to that left side of their line, but the Eagles have one of the best defensive fronts in the game. And without the threat of Elliott beating them on the ground, look for Jim Schwartz to unleash a healthy dose of pressure on Prescott Sunday night.
OVER.
The Eagles are capable of shutting down running backs much better than Alfred Morris. On top of that, they've only given up more than 75 rushing yards in a game three times this season – and only more than 100 once.
Last week, in their first game without Elliott, Dallas ran for 107 yards, and 42 of them came from Prescott. If the Eagles are able to prevent Dak from getting lose and making plays with his legs, they should have no problem keeping Dallas under 70 yards on the ground. But if he breaks off a couple big runs on broken plays or even designed runs – don't be surprised to see that happen – and finishes with 40-plus yards again, it's going to be nearly impossible for them to hit the under.
Keeping Prescott in the pocket and not allowing him to extend plays with his legs will also be key for an Eagles' victory in this one.
UNDER.
This season, Wentz has the edge in passer rating, 104.1-96.3. And passing isn't going to get much easier for Prescott on Sunday. As we alluded to earlier, the lack of a running threat means the Eagles will be able to force the Cowboys quarterback to throw.
As we've seen with Wentz – and other young quarterbacks over the years – managing pass attempts is crucial. Wentz's total attempts are way down this year, and his numbers are way up. It works similarly for Prescott. He's thrown 30 or more passes in six of the Cowboys' nine games this season. They're 2-4 in those games and his passer rating is 89.8. However, they're 3-0 when he throws fewer than 30 times and his passer rating jumps nearly 20 points to 118.8.
I have a feeling Prescott will hit that 30-throw mark again on Sunday, and that bodes well for the Birds.
OVER.
Whether or not you want this to hit the over probably depends on what version of Cowboys owner Jerry Jones we'll be seeing...
Will it be the happy-go-lucky, Chris-Christie-hugging Jones?
Or will it be the down-and-out, get-me-another-drink Jones?
Either way, we're going to get plenty of close-ups.
OVER.
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