February 11, 2015
Think Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston are "no doubt about it" top 10 picks? They very well may be when the draft rolls around in late April, but they're certainly not top 10 picks because the draft experts say so.
I took a look back at mock drafts that were published in February of 2013 and 2014 to see where the experts projected Geno Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, and Johnny Manziel to be drafted.
For this exercise, I selected ESPN, NFL.com, CBS, FOX Sports, USA Today, and Sports Illustrated, which were the biggest football media outlets I could think of. To note, I'm not showing this to bust anyone's chops -- I'm just showing how a lot can change between now and the draft.
Ah, who am I kidding? I'm definitely just doing this to bust chops. Let's start with 2013, when Geno Smith was the QB flavor of the month in February. Here's where the experts projected Smith to be drafted:
Smith would eventually be drafted 39th overall by the Jets.
In 2013, the top QB names were Teddy Bridgewater and of course, Johnny Freaking Football. First, let's look at Bridgewater:
Teddy B. landed in Minnesota after the the Vikings traded up to get him with the last pick in the first round (32nd overall).
And of course, Manziel:
Manziel was drafted 22nd overall by the Browns. As it turns out, Blake Bortles wound up being the first QB taken, at 3rd overall by the Jaguars.
The moral of the story (and I'll include myself in this): We (the media) don't know crap.
Follow Jimmy on Twitter: @JimmyKempski
