A new poll bucking recent projections shows that Pennsylvania's contentious U.S. Senate race between incumbent Pat Toomey and Democratic challenger Katie McGinty could be leaning toward the Republican ticket.
Released Monday, an Emerson College poll found that Toomey held 45.5 percent of Pennsylvania voters while McGinty had 39.4 percent. Another 10 percent were undecided and five percent said "someone else," according to the poll results.
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From a favorability standpoint, 34.8 percent gave a positive score to Toomey, 37.6 percent gave a negative score and 24 percent remained undecided (3.6 percent never heard of him). For McGinty, it was 27.8 percent in favor, 39 percent against and 24.8 percent undecided (8.4 percent never heard of her).
The poll was the first since a string of others in late July and early August gave McGinty a lead of anywhere between one and seven points, as tracked and updated by RealClearPolitics. Toomey led by one point in Public Policy Polling's Pennsylvania Survey conducted between July 29-31, but McGinty holds an overall spread of 1.3 points.
The results of the Emerson poll instantly raised a red flag for PAPolitics Managing Editor Nick Fields. Data from the 800 participating Pennsylvania voters, polled from August 25-28, was collected exclusively using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines. That means the preferences of cell phone owners without landlines were not part of the poll. Fields points to The New York Times' Nate Cohn for an assessment of the usefulness of IVR polls.
Polling aside, Toomey has taken an aggressive approach in recent weeks to make up ground against McGinty. Between picking up endorsements from Gabby Giffords, Michael Bloomberg and Sarah Palin, he released a campaign ad with a cameo from Erica Smegielski, daughter of the late principal murdered at Sandy Hook Elementary School in 2012.
The race has increasingly focalized around the issue of gun-control policy and legislation. On Saturday, in an exclusive podcast interview with the Daily Item's Rick Dandes, McGinty suggested that Toomey's leadership on the issue is more an appearance than reality.
"I'm honored to have the endorsement of Ceasefire Pa. and I think — look, in terms of common sense, common ground gun safety, you know, I intend to help forge the consensus where we can address these issues. And it's not leadership that we've seen from Senator Toomey. He lent his name to one piece of legislation but otherwise has not been a person to bring Republicans and Democrats together."
McGinty carefully went on to connect her position on gun policy to her family's history of hunting, emphasizing the rational difference between preventing terrorists from acquiring weapons and upholding citizens' Second Amendment rights.
Toomey, whom Dandes notes holds a score of 92 from the National Rifle Association, has also repeatedly criticized sanctuary cities like Philadelphia that offer a safe haven to undocumented immigrants, shielding them from the intervention of federal law enforcement agencies.
Heading toward November, observers have argued that Toomey — at best a tepid supporter of Donald Trump — is effectively banking on split-ticket voting in Pennsylvania.
"Pennsylvania voters are really quite sophisticated and they know for sure that Donald Trump is in a category unto himself," Toomey told reporters on a conference earlier this month. "So they will make their decision about the presidential race, and then they will make a completely separate decision about the person they want representing them in the United States Senate."
In a strategic break from the party line, Toomey this month backed off his support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership package endorsed by President Obama, calling it a bad deal for Pennsylvania. Both McGinty and Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton have opposed the trade agreement
McGinty, who's been sidetracked at times by her own campaign statements and jabs at Toomey, has implied that her opponent is naive to think voters won't associate him with Trump's policies and values, particularly when he calls Hillary Clinton a "completely, permanently unacceptable" threat to national security. On the other hand, Toomey recently said he has "high regard and respect" for Clinton's running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine.
The Emerson College poll had a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent.