September 19, 2024
Colleen Claggett/for PhillyVoice
Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles returns to the locker room at halftime during a NFL football game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on September 16, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
The Eagles are heading to New Orleans to take on one of the most heavily bet teams to win the Super Bowl. That, folks, is a massive overreaction to the first two weeks of the NFL season. Nobody is taking away anything from the Saints, they demolished opponents including our beloved Dallas Cowboys. It’s just not sustainable and the biggest reasons are the quarterback and the head coach -- Derek Carr and Dennis Allen, respectively.
The Eagles desperately need to find an identity before this thing gets out of hand. They simply can’t afford to lose another game this early in the season. Meanwhile, the Saints have peaked far too early and are riding horrible math into this game. We found some value!
We hit our lock last week and although Hurts scored, he was not the first so we profited .75u on the night.
Dennis Allen is a money pit. In his career, Allen covers just 36 percent of the time as a betting favorite. That’s it. He’s just incapable of performing when the pressure is on the most.
Here's another look at the math of how poor Allen performs in the very situation he’s in come Sunday. If you bet 1 unit on all of the games Allen’s teams were favored -- yes, pre-dating New Orleans -- you would be down 16 units. The only two trends I ever pay attention to in sports betting are the QB and HC for NFL games.
The Eagles blew a late lead despite their defense holding the Atlanta Falcons off the scoreboard, until it was too late after so many offensive blunders. This is year one with Kellen Moore running the offense and I’m willing to bet that he’s going to figure out how to coach around AJ Brown’s absence after a game, versus knowing what to truly do beforehand.
The biggest concern here is the Saints running down the Eagles defense throat, something Alvin Kamara can easily do. I trust the battle of mistakes to go to Carr over Jalen Hurts. This isn’t a prime-time game, and I like Hurts in the dog role here. At some point, there will be a massive coaching or quarterback decision that will alter the state of the game. I’m going with the Carr/Allen ticket over Hurts/Moore, with Nick Sirianni’s third party endorsement!
Best Bet: Eagles +3 -120 BetMGM 1u
We got the lock, so let’s look deep. How do the Eagles cover and possibly even win this football game? Through the air. That’s where the Birds offense can find some gaps and keep putting pressure on the Saints to keep up. I don’t care how fast the points come, so long as they come. Philly has an established running game -- we saw it for two weeks with Saquon Barkley and the second quarter on Monday with Hurts. Keep the Saints honest, but the best way to beat New Orleans is continuing to force them in a shootout.
We want Carr to keep throwing the ball. We want New Orleans to have to rely on getting Kamara the football in the air, not just handing or screening it off in the backfield. There is going to be someone benefitting from the Eagles moving the ball in the air too, and it doesn’t have to be just DeVonta Smith.
Here’s a three-leg Same Game Parlay that pays out +2014 or just north of 20-1. We start with Britain Covey who was clearly the No. 3 receiver on Monday and should be until Brown returns. He’s going to see the ball in multiple levels and remains active on the goal line or red zone, which adds value.
Jalen Hurts should be in an aerial track meet with the Saints to force Carr into mistakes. Please note, this is not me pushing for them to pass every down then betting accordingly, but getting the alt total to 250+ Passing yards for Hurts seems reasonable. The Eagles offense should look better. Barkley should continue to be active in the passing game, Dallas Goedert -- coming off a milk carton -- should be more of a factor with Moore’s continued grasp of what life without Brown looks like. There will be a breakout play or two for someone else, maybe Jahan Dotson, maybe not.
Last one -- the Saints aren’t going to just hand it off either. They’ve seen the tape. Their best bet is pressing the Eagles deep, forcing their guys to make mistakes in coverage. Their best receiver in that is Rashid Shaheed and we get him at 50+ receiving yards. He’s crushed this number in each of the first two games, unsustainable blowouts, but remains a massive threat deep down field. He could easily get behind the Birds secondary and smoke this number off one grab.
Best Bet: Same Game Parlay +2014
Eytan Shander is a long time radio and TV personality in Philadelphia. In addition to his weekly column, you can currently listen and watch him on Fox29’s Good Day and other sports shows. He’s giving betting advice on OddsShopper. A lifetime Eagles fan, Eytan lives just outside the city with his wife.
Follow Eytan on Twitter: @shandershow
