November 03, 2022
The 7-0 Eagles, playing some of the NFL's best football, are in Houston to take on a pretty underwhelming Texans team in the basement of the AFC South.
Our writers have no reason to think the Eagles will have a problem in this one – take Kyle Neubeck, for example:
The Eagles are good and the Texans are bad. #Analysis. Here's hoping this is a game where the Birds put it away early so everyone can put their focus where it should rightfully be: On the World Series in South Philly. [PhillyVoice]
And the rest of the football world really doesn't either. Here's a look:
• Inquirer.com: You're not going to find any outright picks against the Eagles as you scroll down, it's just a matter of if they can cover the spread. The Philadelphia Inquirer beats picked the Eagles in a clean sweep and none of them see it being close. Wrote Josh Tolentino:
Defensively, the Eagles get another opportunity at a suspect quarterback in Mills, who has thrown eight touchdowns and six interceptions. If the defensive front is able to contain the explosive rookie running back Pierce, they’ll force the Texans to be one dimensional in the passing game, which will present opportunities for the secondary’s ballhawks.
Thus far, Hurts’ ability to take care of the football has been impressive. He hasn’t lost a fumble, and he’s thrown only two interceptions. If Hurts continues to prioritize ball security, he’ll have an opportunity to lead the Eagles to 8-0 for the first time in franchise history.
Prediction: Eagles 34, Texans 10. [The Inquirer, $]
• The Athletic: Senior writer Vic Tafur has the Texans against the spread, but only on the idea that the Eagles might be looking ahead to Washington. That's about all Houston really has going for them.
Running back Dameon Pierce is the rare bright spot for the Texans, but the Eagles play very good run defense. High-flying Philadelphia, on the other hand, will be able to run whenever it wants.
The Texans rank last in run defense DVOA and have surrendered a league-worst 33 runs of 10 yards or more on early downs. Even when they load the box with eight-plus defenders, they’re 28th in success rate vs. the run (52.7%).
You have to really stretch to find a reason to back the Texans, and here goes: The Eagles are 7-0 and have a “Monday Night Football” game against division rival Washington on deck. Everyone besides Houston native Jalen Hurts won’t be able to help looking past the hard-trying Texans, and the point spread being bet up from 9 all the way to 14 gives me just enough to take the bait.
PPP: We wanted to do more of these Player Props that Pop but most don’t get posted until closer to game day. Leonard Fournette under 50.5 rushing yards was a winner last week, and now we’re going with Eagles RB Miles Sanders over 91.5 yards rushing and receiving.
The pick: Texans (+14) [The Athletic, $]
• Gregg Rosenthal, NFL.com: The Texans can't stop the run, and if they can't stop the run, they can't hope to stop the pass either. The Eagles can do both, which is why Rosenthal sees them rolling, 30-10.
The Texans have been competitive for three quarters most weeks, but this is not most weeks, and the final score is determined after four quarters. Lovie Smith's defense has quietly taken a step back this season, especially against the run. Davis Mills' conservative approach wasn't working with Nico Collins healthy and Brandin Cooks happy, and now neither is true. Meanwhile, the Eagles don't even need to pass when they have a historically good running game rolling. But they can pass, and they will! [NFL.com]
• Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Yeah, the Eagles really shouldn't have a problem with this one.
The Eagles are undefeated and playing at a high level. The Texans are not playing close to that. But this is a short week, which can challenge the road team. The real challenge with the short week is for teams preparing for the Eagles offense. That's the difference here. Jalen Hurts keeps playing well.
Pick: Eagles 33, Texans 13 [CBS Sports]
• Sheil Kapadia, The Ringer: Eagles to cover. The Texans can't move the ball. The Eagles can and Jalen Hurts hasn't turned the ball over.
The Eagles are +14 on turnovers this season. That’s more than double any other team. On one hand, Jalen Hurts deserves a ton of credit for this. He has played 467 offensive snaps and has turned it over twice (and one of those was a fluky interception that bounced off a teammate’s hands). On the other hand, it’s fair to wonder if the Eagles defense will look as good against better opponents when it’s not producing takeaways.
We are unlikely to get an answer to that question this week. In their loss to the Titans last week, the Texans had 64 total yards through three quarters. That was the lowest total through three quarters for any NFL offense in a game this season.
I generally hate taking favorites to cover lines this big because so many random, unlucky things can happen in a football game. But this is just such a mismatch on paper, and the Eagles have not been susceptible to letdown games so far this season.
The pick: Eagles (-14) [The Ringer]
• Bill Bender, The Sporting News: How much damage can Hurts and A.J. Brown do this week?
That is a huge spread for a Thursday Night Football game, even for the Eagles, who are 5-2 ATS and have allowed more than 20 points just twice this season. Philadelphia also has just two turnovers this season, and Jalen Hurts will continue the connection with A.J. Brown, and the Eagles keep rolling in the NFC.
Pick: Eagles 31, Texans 17 [The Sporting News]
• Vinnie Iyer, The Sporting News: Again, the Eagles can move the ball. Houston can't. Eagles win and cover the spread.
The Eagles have the versatile offense to dominate either running or passing often with Jalen Hurts. The Texans cannot stop any kind of rushing attack and their cover-2 zone with Lovie Smith is rather predictable for Philadelphia's short-to-intermediate passing game. Davis Mills will be swarmed by another tough overall defense at home.
Pick: Eagles win 38-10 and cover the spread. [The Sporting News]
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