September 05, 2024
Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports
The Eagles have two elite wide receivers. Will DeVonta Smith go off in 2024?
You’ve studied the new draft picks, gone through the free agency signings, and went over every game with a “win” or “loss” on the schedule. It’s time for Eagles football.
The only thing missing is what to bet, specifically each week for Eagles games. Don’t worry – we have you covered.
Introducing the first of a weekly column: Eagles locks and long shots. It’s as simple as that – I’ll give you my favorite bet of the week for each Eagles game followed by a long shot that has a true chance of hitting. We won’t hit them all, but we will certainly track and have fun along the way!
This game screams under for multiple reasons. Opening the season on the road is never easy especially with new personnel all around. The fact we have two teams in a brand-new country with ridiculous protocol put in place to keep players safe is enough to disrupt. Anytime you have disruption around a football team it should lead you to ask how it impacts the total. Since we have it around both teams, it’s a play for me.
So, let’s look at it; the Eagles have two new coordinators with barely much to go on with the starters. Both Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio are charged with revamping their side of the ball, but it’s Jalen Hurts who needs the most attention. A new center, running back, and offensive scheme should help, but it’s still new. Adjusting in the comforts of a home stadium is one thing, in a foreign country to start the season is another.
Just look at Darius Slay and DeVonta Smith – do you think they are the only two players who are unhappy about this trip? Of course not. Players don’t want to be there, that’s just normal. It was the same with London, Germany, and Mexico. The Packers have a new defensive coordinator, and things may seem a bit jumbled on their side. Their offense behind Jordan Love is going to rely heavily on running the ball. It’s the easiest way to remove pressure from playing in Brazil. This is a massive disruption that should limit scoring, certainly in the first half.
If you are a recreational bettor (all are welcome here!) you may have missed the opening total at 51.5 points. It dropped all the way to 48.5 before inching back up to 49.5 with 49 still out there. The market has already indicated that people who bet for a living think this game is going under 51.5 points, most likely under 49 too.
I’d play the under down to 48.5 although 49.5 is even better.
The bet: Under 49.5 Eagles-Packers (FanDuel)
Let’s have some fun. The idea is to build something here that makes sense in game flow while having longer odds. We all want to hit a +19000 lotto ticket but that’s just not happening – at least not week to week. We have a better shot identifying something that works on the field and is mis-priced in the betting market. I’d rather find a matchup to exploit for a two TD day than build a nine-leg same game parlay that fails because the -500 leg missed.
As noted above, we played under the points total because of the disruption factor. It’s the unknown that should dominate at least early on in this game. I like to build longer shot tickets with at least something we know – the Eagles offense has incredible individual talent. They might not burst for points in every possession, at least not in this game, but they won’t be shut out either. Moore has multiple weapons including Saquon Barkley in both the run and pass game, so we should expect a few Eagles scores.
The best matchup that favors Philadelphia is Moore versus Jeff Hafley – the new Packers DC. The entire country of Brazil knows the Birds want Hurts to get AJ Brown the football, that’s the play. But it opens other areas of coverage to exploit with both Smith and Dallas Goedert. I’m going to stay away from the ground game as Hurts is the ultimate vulture of TDs, especially with the Brotherly Shove in action.
Instead let’s look at how Hafley’s hands are tied in looking to limit the Eagles passing game. Clearly the focus will be on limiting – or at least trying through coverage – Brown. He should see the majority of extra coverage right off the bat. The Packers can’t leave the middle of the field open either, so there will be designed coverages to limit Goedert and Barkley. This leaves Smith dealing with more 1 on 1 matchups, in positions where he can simply beat his man and not the coverage.
Between a big play and methodical red zone grabs, Smith should be all over the field as part of Moore’s new system. He has the speed and hands to make most defensive backs around the NFL pay for any mistake, we should see those multiple times in Brazil against the Pack.
A big night for Smitty is coming and I want in.
The long shot: DeVonta Smith 2 TDs +1200 (Caesars)
Eytan Shander is a long time radio and TV personality in Philadelphia. In addition to his weekly column, you can currently listen and watch him on Fox29’s Good Day and other sports shows. He’s giving betting advice on OddsShopper. A lifetime Eagles fan, Eytan lives just outside the city with his wife.
Follow Eytan on Twitter: @shandershow
