September 12, 2024
Denny Medley/USA TODAY Sports
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts did not score on the ground in Week 1.
Back on home soil, the Eagles are out to prove their offensive explosion in Brazil was no fluke. Vic Fangio and the defense may need more time, but they will get a favorable matchup with the Falcons on Monday night to wrap up Week 2.
The under last week did not cover, as both teams took turns torching our ticket. DeVonta Smith did not grab two TDs, so there’s truly nowhere to go but up. We bet the lock to win a unit and a .5u on the longer shot. So we went 0-2 last week, down 1.6u so let’s bounce back.
We get Kirk Cousins in prime time along with a home opener. This one is rather straightforward.
Here’s what we know: Cousins struggles under the bright lights and the Eagles offense can put up points in a blur. The Falcons are still dealing with new components all around, as people are either doing things for the first time or the first time with that team. Their head coach, QB, OC and DC all fit that bill. We saw how disastrous this offense can be in Atlanta after Mike Tomlin and JJ Watt turned up the heat in their ugly loss to the Steelers.
That should open some lanes for Fangio to pressure up front, knowing Cousins won’t have the mobility to outlast a game’s worth of harassment. On the other side, the Eagles should look to continue to rely on Saquon Barkley. Look to the team to open some more for him in the short and intermediary pass game.
I know we want our team to drop 50 each week but it’s hard to keep up that pace, especially coming back from a unique environment. We got burned last week but back again for the Under 47.5, and here’s why – both teams have consistently played to the under in this spot.
Over their last 15 primetime games the Under is 11-3-1 for the Eagles. The Falcons also like to keep things simple and get out by limiting damage. They’ve hit 11 straight unders in combined primetime games. We also see new QBs in different spots struggle in their first month, especially in larger spread games like 6.5 points. According to VSiN, they hit the under over 59% of the time in the first month, while accounting for 1.5 PPG less during that stretch. We take Under 47.5 at FanDuel as this is mostly 47 everywhere else.
The lock: Under 47.5 -110 FanDuel
Sure, Barkley ran all over the place in Brazil against the Packers, racking up three TDs in the process. One thing that won’t go away and has been dominant at home is the “brotherly shove.” The Eagles' nearly unstoppable play has become even more valuable. Defenses now have to sweat over who is getting the ball on the goal line, be it Hurts or Barkley – not an easy task for anyone to defend. The dual threat opens the potential for even more success for this play, fueled by the home crowd of course. We should see Hurts in a position for the opening score to get there, be it on a longer run – he rushed 13 times in Brazil – or someone pushing his tush.
That’s not all, folks. This is a longer shot play and we only get +550 on Hurts first TD. We add a second TD and bump up the return ticket to +1083, good enough for a .5u play here. We should see an aggressive run game because it will work, hopefully Kellen Moore has some sense, and they get out without needing to flash. From a betting standpoint, you just hope that Moore is the sense and balance of Nick Sirianni yelling with fans and going for it on 4th and 12.
I do think there’s going to be at least four scoring chances for Hurts on Monday night. Be it a bootleg, shove, or long run. Chances don’t mean scores, and a penalty or something worse could derail the play. I’ll take 2-for-4 from Hurts so long as one of them is the first!
The long shot: Jalen Hurts First TD AND Jalen Hurts 2 TDs +1083
Eytan Shander is a long time radio and TV personality in Philadelphia. In addition to his weekly column, you can currently listen and watch him on Fox29’s Good Day and other sports shows. He’s giving betting advice on OddsShopper. A lifetime Eagles fan, Eytan lives just outside the city with his wife.
Follow Eytan on Twitter: @shandershow
