January 20, 2024
Jay Biggerstaff/USA TODAY Sports
Can Josh Allen finally beat Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs?
For the gambling degenerates, here are my divisional round NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Texans at Ravens (-9.5): The Ravens are heavy favorites, but be warned that likely league MVP Lamar Jackson doesn't exactly have a sterling playoff history:
| Lamar Jackson | Comp/Att (Comp %) | Yards (YPA) | TD-INT | Rating |
| Chargers, 2018 (L, 17-23) | 14/29 (48.3%) | 194 (6.7) | 2-1 | 78.8 |
| Titans, 2019 (L, 12-28) | 31/59 (52.5%) | 365 (6.2) | 1-2 | 63.2 |
| Titans, 2020 (W, 20-13) | 17/24 (70.8%) | 179 (7.5) | 0-1 | 74.8 |
| Bills, 2020 (L, 3-17) | 14/24 (58.3%) | 162 (6.8) | 0-1 | 61.5 |
| TOTAL (1-3) | 76/136 (55.9%) | 900 (6.6) | 3-5 | 68.3 |
The Ravens are averaging 13 points per game in their four playoff games with Jackson at quarterback.
Many believe the Ravens are the best team in the NFL heading into the postseason, and for good reason. They were the No. 1 team in DVOA (4th in offense, 1st in defense, and 3rd in special teams), and they had the best point differential in the NFL, at +203, winning nine games by double-digit points. They are bullies who have had more their their share of highly impressive wins this season, most notably when they humbled the 49ers on the road Week 16.
Soon to be Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud and the Texans have been a very fun team to watch this season, and they're coming off a 45-14 blowout win over the Browns in the wildcard round, but this is probably where their promising season ends. I am tempted to take the 9.5 points, though.
Packers at 49ers (-9.5): If you're the 49ers, you'd probably much rather get to face the Buccaneers than this red hot Packers offense in your first playoff game coming off a first-round bye. And certainly, Jordan Love is dangerous right now, as he and this very young Packers team looked unfazed in snapping the Cowboys' 15-game home winning streak in the wildcard round last weekend. Love's last five games:
| Jordan Love | Comp/Att (Comp %) | Yards (YPA) | TD-INT | Rating |
| Buccaneers | 29/39 (74.4%) | 284 (7.3) | 2-0 | 111.5 |
| Panthers | 17/28 (60.7%) | 219 (7.8) | 2-0 | 109.1 |
| Vikings | 24/33 (72.7%) | 256 (7.8) | 3-0 | 125.3 |
| Bears | 27/32 (84.4%) | 316 (9.9) | 2-0 | 128.6 |
| Cowboys | 16/21 (76.2%) | 272 (13.0) | 3-0 | 157.2 |
| TOTAL | 113/153 (73.9%) | 1347 (8.8) | 12-0 | 126.5 |
However, the Niners are well rested. More specifically, Christian McCaffrey only had 14 carries Week 17 against the Commanders before getting the last two weekends off. They should have a major advantage in the run game against a Packers defense that finished 28th in run defense in 2023 and 26th in 2022.
It was interesting that the Packers won the coin toss last weekend in Dallas and chose to receive, a rarity these days in the NFL. They marched right down the field and scored, and then never took their foot off the gas. I kinda like that strategy against a Niners team this weekend that struggles to play from behind, but is deadly when playing with a lead.
Ultimately, I believe the Niners will rely heavily on McCaffrey, and that should be good enough to comfortably dispatch of the upstart Packers.
Buccaneers at Lions (-6): In three career games against Todd Bowles defenses, Jared Goff has put up huge yardage numbers:
| Goff vs. Bowles | Comp/Att (Comp %) | Yards (YPA) | TD-INT | Rating |
| Week 4, 2019 (with Rams) | 45/68 (66.2%) | 517 (7.6) | 2-3 | 80.3 |
| Week 11, 2020 (with Rams) | 39/51 (76.5%) | 376 (7.4) | 3-2 | 99.8 |
| Week 6, 2023 (with Lions) | 30/44 (68.2%) | 353 (8.0) | 2-0 | 107.5 |
| TOTAL | 114/163 (69.9%) | 1246 (7.6) | 7-5 | 93.8 |
The Lions had the No. 5 ranked rushing offense in 2023, and I imagine that Bowles will look to take that away, so it could be another game in which Goff puts the ball in the air 40+ times. If he does, the Lions will no doubt rack up a lot of yards once again. The question is whether the Bucs defense can force Goff into devastating mistakes.
I would expect Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson to have a better plan for Bowles' blitzes than the Eagles did. (I mean, I'd expect my cat Butters to have a better plan than the Eagles did for the Bucs' blitzes, but whatever.)
This game could be a shootout. Both teams have legitimate playmakers on offense, but I like the Lions' offensive line a lot more.
Chiefs at Bills (-2.5): When the Bills and Chiefs last met in the playoffs, they produced one of the wildest football games ever, with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes playing beyond elite levels. It's really worth reliving here if you have seven minutes.
If you're thinking about picking the Bills in this matchup, this stat from Sheil Kapadia might give you pause:
Historically, betting against Mahomes as an underdog has been one of the worst wagers in football. The Chiefs have been underdogs 10 times in his career. They are 8-1-1 against the spread in those games. The only time he didn’t cover? A Week 6 loss to the Bills in 2022.
Certainly, betting against Mahomes and Andy Reid in the playoffs is risky. However, this Chiefs team has looked mortal all season long, and the Bills — not the Ravens — are the best team in football right now, in my opinion, having roared back from a 6-6 start to finish 11-6 and earning the 2-seed in the process.
It just kinda feels like their year.
• Last 9 years, ATS: 392-337-19 (0.537)
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