September 05, 2024
Joe Rondone/USA TODAY Sports
We're predicting that one of these guys will be back in the Super Bowl.
The 2024 NFL season begins tonight, so it's time to lay out our predictions on who will be good, who will be bad, who will win the Super Bowl, and which individual players will shine.
Let's start with playoff seeding.
1) 49ers: The Niners still have the best roster in the NFC, though Brock Purdy isn't special.
2) Eagles: The Birds bounce back after their epic collapse and win the NFC East, which hasn't been won by the same team two years in a row in two decades. I'm thinking 11-6, with a tiebreaker over the Lions.
3) Lions: To be clear, I think the Lions are better than the Eagles, but the Eagles get the 2-seed because they play in a weaker division.
4) Buccaneers: I have more trust in the Buccaneers than the other teams in the awful NFC South to at least be competent. Nine wins will probably be good enough to win that division.
5) Packers: The Packers are young and spry, but the Lions have the far better offensive line.
6) Seahawks: The Geno Smith-led Seahawks are in purgatory, in that they're good enough to earn a wildcard spot, but their ceiling is capped.
7) Cowboys: The Cowboys have had atrocious vibes all offseason and they have an objectively worse roster than they did a season ago, but they still have enough talent to sneak into the playoffs in what very well might be Dak Prescott's last season in Dallas.
1) Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes is a very fun player to watch and he's not an objectionable person off the field, but hate for him is growing because it's super hard to beat him.
2) Bills: It seems that folks are predicting the Bills to fall off this season because of the loss of several key players to injury or other teams, but they still employ the second best football player in the world, so they should still be taken seriously as Super Bowl contenders.
3) Bengals: The NFC North will very likely be won either by the Bengals or Ravens, who have far better quarterbacks than the Browns or Steelers. The Bengals managed to go 4-3 with freaking Jake Browning last season, which speaks to the roster they've assembled around Joe Burrow.
4) Colts: Indy is the official #JimmySleeperPick of 2024. Good offensive line, good front four on defense, potentially good rushing attack, and an exciting young quarterback who showed promise as a rookie last season.
5) Ravens: The Bengals have had a bad offensive line over the last few years, but this season it's the Ravens' O-line that is more concerning, in my opinion. They have three shaky starters at LG, RG, and RT, and LT Ronnie Stanley hasn't been able to consistently stay healthy.
6) Texans: Not yet. One more year.
7) Dolphins: Mike McDaniel is personable, but exactly what has he done to deserve unending praise?
I'm envisioning a scenario in which Jalen Hurts has a good season but suffers an injury late in December, can't play in the playoffs against the Cowboys, the Eagles offense gets absolutely nothing going with Kenny Pickett at quarterback, and it's a miserable home loss to their most hated rival.
As for the Chiefs winning it all again, yeah, sorry. It's boring, but, I mean, it's hard to bet against Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.
• MVP: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: (Yawn.)
• Offensive Player of the Year: CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys: There have been years in which the MVP was also the Offensive Player of the Year, making this sort of a dumb category. The NFL should do "Best Quarterback," "Best Offensive Non-Quarterback," and Defensive Player of the Year," and then vote on the MVP between those three guys. But whatever, nobody listens to me.
Last year we correctly pegged Christian McCaffrey for this award. This year, give me Lamb, who is going to get like a million targets this season in a pass-happy Cowboys offense that doesn't have a good running back situation or other scary options in the passing game.
• Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt, Steelers: I picked Watt last year, and he had 19 sacks, four forced fumbles, an INT, eight batted passes, and three fumble recoveries (one for a TD). He finished second in voting, behind Myles Garrett, who had 14 sacks, four forced fumbles, three batted passes, and one recovery.
Let's go with Watt again.
• Offensive Rookie of the Year: Jayden Daniels, Commanders: Caleb Williams has better offensive weapons to work with in Chicago, but I liked Daniels more as a prospect, and he's going to make a lot of plays with his legs.
• Defensive Rookie of the Year: Quinyon Mitchell, Eagles: The first defensive player taken in the 2024 draft went 15th overall! Throughout training camp, I watched as Mitchell earned a starting role at corner. He's tough, instinctive, and he has ideal size/athleticism traits. I think he'll be good right away, and he'll likely stay on the field all game. He should have plenty of opportunities to make plays as opposing quarterbacks will test him.
• Comeback Player of the Year: Joe Burrow, Bengals: Burrow battled through tough injuries for the games he played in during the 2023 season, before he was finally knocked out for good in November. He feels like a pretty safe bet — proven player, injuries wrecked his previous season and his team didn't make the playoffs.
• Breakout Player of the Year: Anthony Richardson, Colts: I still find it funny that Geno Smith won "Comeback Player of the Year" a couple years ago even though he didn't come back from anything. A more accurate description of that type of player would be "Breakout Player of the Year." Anyway, we'll add it here even if it's not a real NFL award. I'll go with Richardson, who showed promise as a rookie, but suffered a season-ending injury in September.
• Coach of the Year: Shane Steichen, Colts: This award typically goes to the coach of the team that exceeds expectations and also goes to the playoffs. Last year it went to Kevin Stefanski, whose offense finished 28th in DVOA, but his team made the playoffs because of Jim Schwartz's defense, which finished 2nd in DVOA. So, you know, I don't think many of the voters of this award (or any of the others for that matter) go much beyond the surface level when casting their ballots. Anyway, based on my above playoff predictions, let's go with Steichen to fit the typical Head Coach of the Year parameters.
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