January 13, 2024
For the gambling degenerates, here are my wildcard round NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Browns (-2) at Texans: Quarterbacks scheduled to make their first playoff starts this postseason include C.J. Stroud (Texans), Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins), Mason Rudolph (Steelers), and Jordan Love (Packers).
37 active NFL quarterbacks have started at least one playoff game. Only 13 won their first playoff start. That would be an overall record of 13-24, or a winning percentage of 0.351.
• Guys who won their first playoff starts: Blake Bortles, Joe Burrow, Joe Flacco, Jimmy Garoppolo, Daniel Jones, Case Keenum, Trevor Lawrence, Patrick Mahomes, Marcus Mariota, Baker Mayfield, Brock Purdy, Ryan Tannehill, and Russell Wilson.
Bortles, Burrow, Lawrence, Purdy, and Wilson all beat opposing quarterbacks who were also making their playoff starting debuts.
• Guys who lost their first playoff starts: Josh Allen, Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Andy Dalton, Jared Goff, Taylor Heinicke, Justin Herbert, Brian Hoyer, Tyler Huntley, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Mac Jones, A.J. McCarron, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Geno Smith, Matthew Stafford, Tyrod Taylor, Skylar Thompson, Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, and Carson Wentz.
Is that just trivia? I lean toward thinking it's not, and that players can be legitimately affected by the pressure of a first playoff game start.
Stroud has had a fun rookie season, but Jim Schwartz's defense has been awesome, and the Texans have a lot of important players on their injury report.
Dolphins at Chiefs (-4): The four longest playoff win droughts in the NFL are as follows:
| Team | Years | Last playoff win |
| Lions | 32 | 1991 divisional round, 38-6 vs. Cowboys |
| Dolphins | 23 | 2000 wildcard round, 23-17 vs. Colts |
| Raiders | 21 | 2002 conference championship, 41-24 vs. Titans |
| Commanders | 18 | 2005 wildcard round, 17-10 at Buccaneers |
The Dolphins and Lions have a chance to end those long droughts.
With two games to play in the regular season, the Dolphins needed one win to secure their first AFC East title since 2008. However, they got destroyed by the Ravens 56-19 Week 17, and they lost at home to the Bills 21-14 Week 18. Barring an extremely unlikely Dolphins-Steelers AFC Championship Game, any Dolphins path to the Super Bowl will have to come exclusively on the road.
The Dolphins are now 1-5 against teams with winning records this season. They got outscored 197-106 (-91 point differential) in those six games.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have looked mortal this season, especially over their last 10 games, a span during which they were just 5-5. They were also only 5-4 at home this season.
Ultimately, I trust Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes to figure things out in the playoffs, as they always have. They're 9-2 at Arrowhead in the playoffs since the Mahomes era got underway in 2018. It's also going to be frigid. 🥶
While snow is not expected, kickoff temperatures near zero are forecast, and lingering northwest winds will send wind chills well below zero.
This will be the coldest game the Miami Dolphins have ever played... It could also threaten the record for the coldest game the Kansas City Chiefs have played. When they hosted the rival Denver Broncos on the afternoon of Dec. 18, 1983, the daytime high was only 1 degree above zero, according to Pro Football Reference.
The Dolphins have a big advantage when they play at home early in the season in the extreme Miami heat, but most of their players are not used to playing in these kinds of cold conditions. Give me the Chiefs, who rested starters Week 18 and are much healthier than the Dolphins.
Steelers at Bills (-9.5): The weather could be awful in Buffalo, too.
Intense winter weather is expected in Western New York during Sunday’s Bills vs. Steelers Wild Card game at Highmark Stadium.
The forecast includes high winds, frigid wind chills and blowing lake-effect snow – including the possibility for whiteout conditions before, during, and after the game.
While the overall snow totals are not extraordinary by Buffalo standards, high winds could create near-blizzard conditions in parts of the region. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has declared a State of Emergency for Western New York.
While the bad weather conditions are clearly an advantage for the Chiefs over the Dolphins, the bad conditions in Buffalo could serve as something of an equalizer in the Bills-Steelers matchup, in that the Bills are the much better team and would probably just prefer clean weather.
Still, the Bills have looked like one of the best teams in the NFL over the last couple of months, while the Steelers are starting Mason Rudolph at quarterback. We probably don't have to overthink this one.
Packers at Cowboys (-7): Jordan Love has had some games this season in which he has gotten hot and the Packers' offense was very difficult to stop, like on Thanksgiving in Detroit, for example.
Their season is already a success, having made the playoffs and finding out that Love could be their long-term answer at quarterback. At this point they're playing with house money, but they're the youngest team in the NFL (or at least they were to start the season) and I just trust the more playoff-tested (and more talented) Cowboys to take care of business.
Rams at Lions (-3): As we showed above, the Lions have to longest playoff win drought in the NFL. However, this has been a breakthrough season for them already, as they won their first division title in 30 years.
| Year | NFCN winner | Year | NFC North winner |
| 1994 | Vikings | 2009 | Vikings |
| 1995 | Packers | 2010 | Bears |
| 1996 | Packers | 2011 | Packers |
| 1997 | Packers | 2012 | Packers |
| 1998 | Vikings | 2013 | Packers |
| 1999 | Buccaneers | 2014 | Packers |
| 2000 | Vikings | 2015 | Vikings |
| 2001 | Bears | 2016 | Packers |
| 2002 | Packers | 2017 | Vikings |
| 2003 | Packers | 2018 | Bears |
| 2004 | Packers | 2019 | Packers |
| 2005 | Bears | 2020 | Packers |
| 2006 | Bears | 2021 | Packers |
| 2007 | Packers | 2022 | Vikings |
| 2008 | Vikings | 2023 | LIONS! |
Unfortunately, the Rams' premier offensive weapons are a bad matchup for the Lions' porous secondary. Give me L.A. in a fun shootout.
Eagles (-3) at Buccaneers: All season long it has felt like whoever won the NFC South would be a mere speedbump for whichever of the Eagles or Cowboys didn't win the NFC East and instead had to settle for the 5 seed. Now? Ehhhh, not so much.
On paper, the Eagles have the better quarterback, running backs, wide receivers (if A.J. Brown plays), tight end, offensive line, and pass rush in this matchup.
Unfortunately, the Eagles' schemes, both offensively and defensively, are a mess.
The Bucs are not a very good football team, but at least they're organized.
• Last 9 years, ATS: 389-336-19 (0.536)
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