January 11, 2025
For the gambling degenerates, here are our Wild Card Round NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Chargers (-3) at Texans: This is sort of the "Who cares?" game of Wild Card weekend, as neither team has good odds of winning the Super Bowl.
The Texans are an almost perfectly average team that was ranked 16th in DVOA, finished with a point differential of 0, and had a 5-6 record outside of the atrocious AFC South. C.J. Stroud was a rookie phenom, but he took a step in the wrong direction in his second season. Their offense simply didn't put many points on the board in 2024, at least compared with the NFL's other playoff teams:
The Chargers gave up the fewest points in the NFL this season.
Steelers at Ravens (-9.5): The Steelers got out to a 10-3 start to the season, but they're trudging into the playoffs on a four-game losing streak. The only teams with losing streaks longer than the Steelers to close the season are the Browns and Titans. Worse, they haven't even been the likely team to win at any point during their four-game slide:
Meanwhile, the Ravens are heading into the playoffs on a four-game winning streak during which they've won every game by three or more scores and have outscored their opponents 135-43.
Broncos at Bills (-9.5): The Broncos went 10-7 with a +114 point differential with the sixth quarterback selected in the 2024 draft. Their season is already a success, no matter what happens in the playoffs.
But they're going to get smoked in Buffalo by the Bills, who are playoff tested and in my opinion the best team in the AFC.
Packers at Eagles (-4.5): Some people like Jordan Love more than Jalen Hurts, and some people like Jalen Hurts more than Jordan Love. Those two guys aside, the Eagles have the better running back, the better receivers, the better offensive line (by far), the better secondary, and the best defensive lineman. They're just better, and they're healthier, and they're playing at home.
They also played earlier this season in a game won by the Eagles in which Hurts played like crap, the Eagles lost the turnover battle 3-1, and their defense was a more than a month away from finding their footing.
The Packers are very tough draw for a 7 seed, but we probably don't need to overthink this one too much.
Commanders at Buccaneers (-3): The 14 playoff teams, by overall DVOA, offensive DVOA, and defensive DVOA:
| Team | DVOA | DVOA - O | DVOA - D |
| Ravens | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Lions | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Packers | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Bills | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| Eagles | 5 | 13 | 1 |
| Broncos | 6 | 16 | 4 |
| Vikings | 7 | 15 | 2 |
| Chiefs | 8 | 8 | 12 |
| Chargers | 9 | 12 | 9 |
| Commanders | 10 | 6 | 23 |
| Buccaneers | 11 | 7 | 16 |
| Steelers | 15 | 19 | 8 |
| Texans | 16 | 26 | 3 |
| Rams | 17 | 10 | 26 |
According to DVOA, the worst ranked units in the playoffs are the Texans' offense, the Rams' defense, and the Commanders' defense.
Jayden Daniels could do it on his own at times against some weaker opponents during the regular season, but as a team the Commanders are undermanned in the playoffs. Talk to me about the Commanders as Super Bowl contenders in 2026.
As for the Bucs, after years of having a dreadful rushing attack, they've been one of the best teams on the ground in the NFL, and Baker Mayfield threw for a ton of yards down the stretch. I just don't like the Commanders' chances of consistently stopping the Bucs' offense.
Vikings (-2.5) at Rams: The Rams are the only team in the playoffs this season with a negative point differential, at -19. Since the NFL moved to a 14-team playoff in 2020, 8 teams have made the playoffs with a negative point differential:
Excluding the Giants-Vikings game, in which somebody had to win that game, teams with negative point differentials have a 1-8 playoff record with a playoff point differential of -94.
The Vikings were a good team all season that happened to save its worst game for a huge national audience in Week 18. Unsurprisingly, people are down on them at the moment. Too much recency bias is at play here, I think. Expect them to bounce back and take care of business against this weak Rams playoff team.
This line was only 1 point earlier in the week. I loved it then. It has since moved to 2.5 points after the venue was moved from L.A. to Arizona. I don't love it quite as much after that development, especially since the Rams don't have a home field advantage in L.A. anyway, but I'll still take the Vikings as one of my spread picks.
Also, I'm straight chalk this week, which is no fun, but the favorites are all significantly better than their opponents and I'm not risking my 2024 straight up record. 🤷♂️
• Last 10 seasons, ATS: 448-377-22 (0.542)
MORE: Mailbag: Will the Eagles' window for success still be open in 2025?
Follow Jimmy & PhillyVoice on Twitter: @JimmyKempski | thePhillyVoice
Like us on Facebook: PhillyVoice Sports
Add Jimmy's RSS feed to your feed reader
