August 11, 2015
The Phillies got shelled in Arizona on Monday night by a score of 13-3, as Aaron Harang was essentially throwing batting practice. No matter, though. Even with a slight hiccup in the desert, national writers are starting to take notice of the hottest team in baseball since the All-Star break. A 16-6 stretch is especially noteworthy when the team in question was on pace to lose 110 games before flipping the switch in late July.
For example, Grantland’s Jonah Keri wrote a little about the Phils in his weekly column dubbed “The 30.” Keri mainly decided to focus on the three 25-and-under players wreaking havoc at the top of the lineup: Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera, and Maikel Franco. In case you went to bed early, Franco doubled and drove a ball all the way to Tucson against the Diamondbacks. In fact, check out this little tidbit:
Maikel Franco hit a career-best 455-foot homer tonight, longest by a Phillies player since Jim Thome in 2012 (459'). pic.twitter.com/M4VuFdK9TK
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) August 11, 2015
The Daily News’ Ryan Lawrence also tweeted out some numbers that show where Franco stands in comparison to some of the National League’s other top rookies statistically. Not bad at all:
Why isn't Maikel Franco on NL ROY radar? Ripped from my game story, numbers that support his strong candidacy: pic.twitter.com/TiOrjbnQlG
— Ryan Lawrence (@ryanlawrence21) August 11, 2015
Regardless of whether Franco wins the award or not (he likely won’t), the Phillies have to be pleased with the 22-year-old third baseman’s performance. Speaking of third base, Franco makes some pretty sick barehanded plays fairly frequently. The problem? His defense grades out terribly in most of the advanced metrics. Keri mentions Franco’s defensive difficulties when writing about his rookie season:
The last of the offense-boosting trio of 25-and-under Phillies is Maikel Franco. By far the most highly touted prospect of the three, the 22-year-old nonetheless arrived with question marks of his own, as observers wondered how his free-swinging approach might translate to the big leagues, and if he could hack it defensively at third base. So far, Franco is 1-for-2. He’s walking more often in his rookie season than he has since playing at low-A ball, and he’s striking out less than one-sixth of the time. Franco’s second-half numbers are actually down a hair, but that’s mostly because he’s been so dangerous for much of the season, delivering a 2015 line of .274/.336/.476. Whether he’ll stick at third long-term remains an open question, though: According to Baseball Info Solutions, Franco has been nine runs worse than the average MLB third baseman this year, ranking 33rd at his position. The good news is Howard has only one year left on his excruciating $125 million contract, meaning Franco is a good bet to shift to first base by Opening Day 2017 — if not sooner.
Another national scribe, FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan, wrote a post aptly titled “The Phillies Are on Fire for Some Reason.” He touches on subjects like the young guns producing at the plate and baseball being just the darndest game, but I want to focus on something we often talk about in regard to the local basketball team: tanking. Let this be a lesson that Hinkie is everywhere.
Think back to a month ago. The one positive of the Phillies stinking up the joint night in and night out was that they were on a collision course with the top overall selection in next June’s amateur draft. Now that they’ve caught fire, the Florida Marlins currently hold the league’s worst record by a half-game. Is this a disaster? Are the Phillies screwing up? The answer is probably not.
Having the first pick is great! It’s better than having literally any other pick (hard-hitting analysis, I know). Still, it’s probably fair to say selecting first in baseball isn’t generally as important as it is in basketball or football when an elite quarterback is available. From what we know, Bryce Harper 2.0 likely isn’t in the 2016 draft class, either. Sullivan argues that the young players winning games for the Phillies could be considered more important than draft position:
Then, think about what tanking involves. Tanking requires consistent losing. Winning comes along with good performances. Losing comes along with bad performances. If a team loses a lot, the players on the team are doing poorly. That includes veterans, and that includes young potential up-and-comers. If the Phillies were to lose a bunch and end up with baseball’s worst record, odds are, that would mean worse performances from guys like Nola and Franco and Herrera. And that would give them worse projections. If the Phillies were to stay hot, though, then the young players probably would’ve done pretty well, so that strengthens the Phillies’ future position. The draft pick gets worse, but the players already in house look better, and that’s at least as important. The worst a team does, the worse its players do, and that’s bad for the short-term and the long-term.
Plus, winning is, you know, fun:
Chase Utley smile: CONFIRMED. pic.twitter.com/nGw9wb1dZ5
— Danger Guerrero (@DangerGuerrero) August 9, 2015
Trade candidate Chase Utley looks sharp as scouts continue to watch: Jim Salisbury, CSN Philly
Since coming off the disabled list on Friday, Pete Mackanin has found a way to get Chase Utley at-bats. He even played some first base in Arizona. Salisbury says this is all by design:
It all smells like a showcase for potential trade partners. Three clubs that could be potential trade fits for Utley -- the Giants, Yankees and Cubs -- had scouts at Monday night’s game. The Giants have watched Utley four straight games, following him from San Diego to Phoenix.
The Dodgers are another team that could be a fit for Utley. They had interest in him early last offseason and on Monday placed starting second baseman Howie Kendrick on the disabled list with a hamstring injury.
Phillies acquire infielder Tyler Pastornicky from the Rangers: Jake Kaplan, Philadelphia Inquirer
Ruben and Jon Daniels must talk on the phone quite a bit. Some potential insurance for Utley if he’s traded?
Pastornicky, 25, will report to triple-A Lehigh Valley, which opens a three-game series Tuesday night in Syracuse, N.Y. The former Atlanta Brave has not played in the major leagues this season. He hit .281 in 303 at-bats between double-A Frisco and triple-A Round Rock.
Pastornicky has experience at second base, third base, shortstop and in the outfield. A fifth-round draft pick of the Toronto Blue Jays in 2008, he spent almost five years in the Braves organization. He hit .243 for Atlanta over 239 at-bats between 2012 and 2014.
Who To Dream On — Hernandez Or Herrera? Corinne Landrey, Crashburn Alley
Of the two young players having similarly strong seasons, Landrey makes the case the Herrera could (key word there) be a regular going forward. El Torito has some surprising pop in that bat of his:
With Odubel Herrera, though, it’s okay to dream a little. Still just 23 years old, his continued development this year demonstrates an as of yet unrealized ceiling. His upper-deck blast at Citizens Bank Park hinted that his newfound power is not a mirage, but instead a skill he can continue to build on. The contact he makes is impressive and, like Hernandez, his speed adds a valuable component to his tool set. With that said, there is one thing that absolutely must improve if Herrera is to take another step forward: his plate discipline. A 3.4 BB% and 23.0 K% is unplayable. Ben Revere hardly ever walks, but he also hardly ever strikes out. Ryan Howard strikes out at prodigious rates, but he also walked frequently in his prime. If Herrera is to be an everyday player, the plate discipline must improve.
Just How Good is Maikel Franco's Rookie Season? David S. Cohen, The Good Phight
Very good, especially offensively:
How does all this compare to other great Phillies rookie seasons? Pretty damn good. For rookies with 300 or more plate appearances, Franco's OPS+ is 13th in Phillies' rookie history (first is Dick Allen at 162; Ryan Howard's rookie season is 5th at 133), better than Richie Ashburn (122), Scott Rolen (121), Pat Burrell (106), and Jimmy Rollins (93).
Follow Rich on Twitter: @rich_hofmann
