July 14, 2015
Ever since the Sixers selected Joel Embiid third overall less than 13 months ago, it was billed as a “risk or reward” pick. Some of the tools he showed as a freshman at Kansas were otherworldly, and aspects of his game (along with a similar backstory) were compared to Hakeem Olajuwon, one of the game’s true greats. On the other hand, big men with foot trouble are, in a word, terrifying.
The news broke on Saturday afternoon that Embiid would require a second surgery and likely miss the upcoming season, which Sam Hinkie confirmed later that evening. There is no acceptable way to characterize the turn of events besides a devastating blow, especially from a morale standpoint. Like Nerlens Noel the year before, the Sixers were willing to proceed with extreme caution to hopefully reap the rewards of being patient. Taking their medicine, to put it another way. Now they have to wait another year, and even then, Embiid’s long-term health status is extremely questionable.
Oh yeah, the takes. Let’s get to the takes.
How will another year off the court affect Embiid? Mike Sielski, Philadelphia Inquirer
Good one from Sielski, who raises two questions: One, does Embiid possibly have a metabolic disorder like a vitamin deficiency that makes it difficult for the bone to heal? And two, how are the Sixers going to keep a 21-year-old kid who has dealt with a lot of hardship engaged in his rehab so this year’s mistakes aren’t repeated?
None of what has happened here is good, for the Sixers or Joel Embiid. That is the icy, sharp truth. And if he's to have any hope of taking the floor in a basketball game again, he will have to overcome a body that continues to betray him and the fears and demons that might haunt his mind and heart. Here's hoping he can - not for the Sixers, not for Philadelphia, just for him.
Latest Joel Embiid news a setback to Sixers' 'Process’: Bob Cooney, Philadelphia Daily News
Cooney addressed what is probably the most asked big picture question after Embiid’s setback: After there is a legitimate worry that a key cog can’t make it on the floor, where does this leave “The Process?”
Is there promise for the future? Sure, if the moves made over the next couple of years are home runs - like getting a point guard and striking it rich in free agency.
Should there be concern about the way "The Process" is now playing out? Absolutely. Saturday's statement from the team ensured that. The "wait" has become a lot further away than the "see."
Joel Embiid’s Latest Setback Is Not the End of the World: Derek Bodner, Philly Mag
Bodner makes a point he and I have discussed on our podcast before: Unless one of them turns into a superstar (which is still possible, mind you), forget about passing on Aaron Gordon, Dante Exum, Julius Randle, etc. This news is most disappointing from the Sixers standpoint because, in my opinion, Embiid would be that superstar if he were healthy. Nerlens Noel is an elite defender. Jahlil Okafor is an elite post scorer. Embiid is the guy who could potentially do it all:
The real devastation for Sixers fans is not what the team could have missed when selecting No. 3 overall in 2014, but that the team could have had a generational talent in their hands, only to have it slip away. It's the kind of missed opportunity that haunts fanbases.
The Need for Embiid: Is Sam Hinkie's plan wrecked? Andrew Unterberger, The 700 Level
Good stuff from Unterberger, who is roughly thinking along the same lines as I am:
It's not a death blow to our rebuild — while Jahlil Okafor is toasting dudes in Summer League and while Philly is still basking in the glow of one of the most lopsided asset-collection trades of recent NBA history, it's even possible to still feel a little positive about our current direction — but it's the biggest hit Hinkie has taken yet, for sure. Does that mean he'll start wagering conservatively and maneuvering the Sixers for short-term gain, though? I certainly wouldn't bet on it.
Time for the Philadelphia 76ers to Flip the Switch? A Scenario: Seth Partnow, Hardwood Paroxysm
While I tend to agree with Unterberger that Hinkie will keep moving along the organization at a methodical pace, Partnow brought up an interesting counter scenario. Basically, his point is that after the outrageous Nik Stauskas trade, you could argue the Sixers should also be looking at the 2017 draft (which looks very strong at the top) when it comes to positioning for a potential pick swap with the Sacramento Kings. And maybe that means (gulp) winning more games in the short term. That’s optionality, boys and girls:
Clearly, if the Kings get off to a slow start, Philadelphia has less reason to outright tank; Sacto’s pick will likely be higher. Examined with slightly more care, maximizing their own win totals possibly increases their chances of that One True Superstar in 2017. If it becomes clear Sacramento will finish badly, a swap is going to happen in 2016. The 76ers reducing the value of their own pick ensures a worse selection for the Kings. This in turn creates a lower talent level going into 2016/2017 for the Kings, and thus the likelihood of another high-end pick for Philly in the 2017 draft. By which point that unprotected first will be in range to convey in 2019.
After Joel Embiid's injury, where are the Philadelphia 76ers going? Matt Moore, CBS Sports
Moore touches on a point we frequently have emphasized here: It’s possible to credibly argue almost any viewpoint about the Sixers, which is why the arguments never seem to end0. If you don’t like they were doing, the Sixers are screwed and the Embiid pick was a mistake. If you’re on board, it was a risk worth taking and the sky isn’t falling:
Another way to think of it: If the Sixers intended the Embiid pick to be a swing for the fences with a high chance of a strikeout, drafting Gordon, Exum or Randle (or Payton with the No. 10 instead of Saric at No. 12) would have gotten them a man on base for when they went for the home run this season. Had Embiid been the home run they were looking for, it would have been worth it. That injury risk is part of the equation when we look at the value of the swing. That's what makes the entire ordeal such a maddening rabbit hole of hypotheticals and paradigm justification.
The Philadelphia 76ers missed a great opportunity, and it didn't matter: Michael Pina, Fox Sports
This piece has more to do with the Kings trade than Embiid. Pina thought the Sixers should have been more aggressive in extending offer sheets to top-tier free agents, but ended up loving the Stauskas trade from the Philly perspective:
It was arguably the most lopsided deal of the past 10 years; a transaction so unfair and shortsighted that NBA commissioner Adam Silver's first reaction should've been to enact a mercy rule to keep Kings owner Vivek Ranadive from harming himself in the future.
For Philly, though, it was Christmas. Their decision to sit out free agency and wait for another team to unload bad contracts (and highly coveted assets) on their lap paid off in a huge way, allowing them to land last year's No. 8 overall draft pick and a bag full of ping-pong balls from one of the most incompetent organizations in professional sports.
1. A post on Richaun Holmes, who unfortunately fractured the elbow the day this ran.
2. A recap of Jahlil Okafor’s struggles in Utah, before he bounced back in Vegas over the weekend.
Follow Rich on Twitter: @rich_hofmann
