April 25, 2016
Tim Sharp/AP
What if the Rams take Carson Wentz -- not Jared Goff -- with the No. 1 pick?
On Thursday night in Chicago, the Philadelphia Eagles are expected to draft quarterback Carson Wentz of North Dakota State with the second-overall pick -- a pick they acquired, along with a fourth-rounder, from the Browns last week in exchange for a handful of their own picks.
Their intentions of drafting a quarterback were made instantly clear by Howie Roseman and the plan is -- or at least was until Sam Bradford reportedly requested a trade -- to have their rookie QB spend a season or two behind Bradford while he learned the offseason and got used to seeing NFL defenses.
They have to be taking Wentz, right? He's the guy all signs, reports, rumors, tea leaves seem to be pointing towards. Right? RIGHT?
We won't know for certain until the minute Roseman and the Eagles are put on the clock, in large part because the team that picks before them, the one with which they swapped QBs just last offseason, is also planning on drafting their future franchise quarterback.
Given Jared Goff's California roots and the Rams impending move to Los Angeles -- not to mention that he faced tougher competition in college and is seemingly the more NFL-ready of the two -- there's a good chance he'll be their pick. Roseman even mentioned that he reached out to the Rams before pulling the trigger on the deal with the Browns.
So that's it -- Goff goes No. 1 to the Rams and Wentz goes No. 2 to the Eagles. Right? RIGHT?
Not so fast.
A lot can change between now and 8 p.m. Thursday night. And according to one reputable NFL reporter -- one who specializes in covering the teams out West -- Wentz, not Goff, will be the first overall pick.
Even before the Eagles traded up to second-overall, ESPN's John Clayton has been putting this idea out there.
I do believe the Rams will draft Carson Wentz
— John Clayton (@ClaytonESPN) April 14, 2016
On Monday, he went on 97.5 The Fanatic with Rob Ellis and Harry Mayes and further explained why he thinks the Rams would prefer Wentz.
"I still feel like Jeff Fisher could take Wentz because he is big and mobile like QBs he's had before like McNair and V Young" @ClaytonESPN
— 975TheFanatic (@975TheFanatic) April 25, 2016
Here's Clayton's full answer from the Fanatic midday show but first, a disclaimer:
Keep in mind that Clayton isn't reporting that the Rams are definitely going to Wentz -- trust me, you'd know if that was the case -- but he does admit that some within the organization have told him that Wentz is their guy. Could that be misinformation? Sure, but for now let's just take it as some indication that Goff isn't the No. 1 lock we all thought he was.
And now, back to Clayton:
“I still do [think the Rams will take Wentz] — I mean, maybe I’m losing some of that conviction — because I go to history, particularly with somebody who’s been in the game as long as Jeff Fisher. I mean, Jeff Fisher’s always taken the bigger, running quarterback. And they both have equal throwing ability. Maybe Goff’s a little more polished thrower and all that stuff, but you’ve got 6-5, 237 — which matches Steve McNair, which matches Vince Young. You know, those are the types of quarterbacks [he’s historically taken].
“But if you’re the Rams in Los Angeles, you’re going to try the tactic of, ‘We’re going to keep everybody guessing. Because, why not? We’ve got to keep this thing a little interesting.’ There’s still some people in the organization that tell me it’s going to be Wentz, but there’s no guarantee on that.
“I can’t say with certainty who is going to be the No. 1 quarterback. From Howie [Roseman]’s perspective, I don’t think he really cares. He’s going to take one of the two of them because he’s likely looked at the next three years of quarterback classes like I do. And you can make the argument these two guys are significantly better than anybody coming out in the next three years, unless you’re a big fan of Deshaun Watson down at Clemson.”
The most interesting part of that answer, at least to me, is that last paragraph. According to Clayton -- and in mind, Howie -- the difference between Goff and Wentz is negligible.
The scary part is, he could be dead right about the difference between the two and also stupendously wrong about where they stack up against current (and future) NFL quarterbacks. And that's where we'll start in this version of "What They're Saying."
The history is especially daunting in the few years when quarterbacks have gone first and second, suggesting that it is likely that either the Rams or Eagles will be disappointed, if not devastated, by the aftermath of this draft. Including last year, when Jameis Winston went first, followed by Mariota, there have been just six years since the common draft began in 1967 in which quarterbacks went in the top two picks. In only one of those years (excluding Winston and Mariota, since it's too early to deduce anything conclusive there) could both of the quarterbacks be considered to have had successful careers: Jim Plunkett and Archie Manning from the 1971 draft, and Plunkett's success in Oakland came only after seven mediocre seasons in New England and San Francisco. The other pairings have seen success, so far at least, by just one of the quarterbacks: Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III (2012), Tim Couch and Donovan McNabb (1999), Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf (1998), Drew Bledsoe and Rick Mirer (1993).
Even more pointed is the limits of their success. Plunkett and Peyton Manning won two Super Bowls each. McNabb started a Super Bowl for the Eagles. Bledsoe started the 2001 season for the Patriots, but his injury launched Tom Brady's career and the Patriots won the Super Bowl that year with Brady starting.
Count NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock among those who think Wentz would be this desired any year. He said Wentz and Jared Goff are “every bit in the conversation” with Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota from last season. He also thinks Wentz is a better prospect than Sam Bradford was in 2010, when Bradford went No. 1 and had a college career at Oklahoma that included a Heisman Trophy. ...
"[Wentz only made 23 starts and needs more reps] but that's part of the normal developmental pattern of just about any college quarterback, and I think he has the intelligence and work ethic to get that done. So if you ask me today who I'm more excited about as a first round quarterback, it would be Carson Wentz over Bradford from back in the day.”
Adams, a quarterback from the University of Oregon by way of Eastern Washington, is trying to temper his expectations. ... He’s seen other quarterbacks in this draft class up close, in Pac-12 games against Jared Goff of Cal, and Cody Kessler of USC and Kevin Hogan of Stanford – Adams’ Ducks won each of those games, he’ll point out – and watched more North Dakota State film of Carson Wentz than many draft analysts have thanks to years’ worth of studying common Big Sky Conference opponents.
“I feel like I'm as good as everybody else, or better than everybody else in this draft,” Adams told USA TODAY Sports.
If Adams were the one putting together quarterback rankings, he’d put himself second, behind only Wentz, because he believes the pro-style offense Wentz ran at North Dakota State makes Wentz the most pro-ready quarterback in this class.
Adams also shared that sentiment during an interview on the Dan Patrick Show:
And finally, let's hear from Carson Wentz himself, who wrote a piece for The Players' Tribune on Monday about why he's not worried about transitioning from a small school to the bright lights of the NFL.
Going through the draft process, you find yourself answering a lot of the same questions over and over. I get it. This is basically a very long, very public job interview. But the question that seems to come up the most is one that almost makes me laugh at this point:
Carson, coming from North Dakota, are you worried about playing against tougher competition in the NFL?
There’s this belief that I’m at some sort of disadvantage coming into the league because of where I’m from. But if you get to know me, you’ll understand that being from North Dakota isn’t a disadvantage. Not even close. In fact, having been raised in North Dakota is probably one of my greatest strengths.
Wentz also talked about looking up to Brett Favre:
I grew up a Vikings fan. Jerseys, hats, posters on my wall — all of that. But despite that, I always loved watching Brett Favre. I just admired the way he played football. Nobody ever questioned how serious or competitive he was, and the way he showed off those qualities is what made me love him. The guy would get licked and then get back up, throw a 40-yard bomb and run around the field jumping and laughing like a little kid. He wasn’t out there to manage the game. He was a gunslinger. The guy flat out made plays. That’s the quarterback that I wanted to be.
And about how he used to be the Ron Dayne of peewee football:
When I started out in the Bismarck youth football league, I was a running back. Now, I wasn’t a shifty, finesse running back. I was an up-the-gut, everyone-knows-where-the-ball-is-going, punch-you-in-the-mouth running back. Since I was a kid, I’ve had the mentality that if you’re going to tackle me … well, I’m going to make sure it hurts. I was pretty skinny — lanky even — but you can get away with that when you play hard and aren’t afraid of contact. And contact was always my favorite part of the game — still is. It was kind of funny, honestly. I was this crazy, string-bean kid trying to truck kids into the end zone. And a lot of the time, I did.
Wentz also claims to have played quite a bit of Wiffle Ball while growing up in North Dakota. If the Eagles draft him, I'd like to challenge him to a game after practice. But maybe Goff is better. Nah, Wentz.
Definitely, Wentz.
Are we still talking about Wiffle Ball?
Follow Matt on Twitter: @matt_mullin
