Week 9 NFL picks

Chargers (-1.5) at Browns: A 1.5-point spread would have been a no-brainer pick a couple weeks ago, but the Browns are at least functional now with Jameis Winston taking over as the starter for Deshaun Watson. I'll take the Chargers to win, but I can't lay the points.

Saints (-7.5) at Panthers: The Saints have lost six straight games by a combined score of 177-94, and I actually considered laying 7.5 points on the road in Carolina. That's how bad this Panthers team is.

Dolphins at Bills (-5.5): The Bills destroyed the Dolphins in Miami Week 2 when the Dolphins still had Tua Tagovailoa, and they're going to do the same to them Week 9 in Buffalo.

Broncos at Ravens (-9): The Broncos are one of the NFL's surprise teams this season at 5-3, but this matchup will serve as a reminder that they are nowhere close to contending in the AFC.

Raiders at Bengals (-7): The Bengals have gotten a reputation this season for their offense playing well, but being let down by their defense. I think that was true earlier in the season, but their offense has scored 48 combined points in their last three games, and is far too dependent on Ja'Marr Chase making otherworldly plays. I'm certainly not picking this trash Raiders team, though.

Patriots at Titans (-3.5): Other than draft dorks, who cares?

Jaguars at Eagles (-7.5): The Jaguars are the Eagles' fourth opponent during their four-game anti-gauntlet.

• Browns (2-6): W
• At Giants (2-6): W
• At Bengals (3-5): W
• Jaguars (2-6): TBD

The Jags have the 32nd-ranked defense in DVOA, their two best receivers are hurt, and they have already signaled they are waiving the white flag on their season after trading their starting LT to the Vikings.

We probably don't have to go too deep here. The Eagles are playing better and should handle the Jags.

Bears at Cardinals (-1): I'm rather proud of my Cardinals outright pick in Miami last week, and have decided that Arizona is my official "Fraudometer™️ team of the 2024 season. What's the Fraudometer™️? Well, if you can beat the Fraudometer™️ team, you might not be frauds. If you can't, you are. Put me down for the Bears being frauds.

Rams (-1.5) at Seahawks: The Rams are getting healthier and have a chance to get to 0.500 after a 1-4 start, with wins over the 49ers and Seahawks in their pocket. This is a sneaky important game in the NFC playoff race. I'd much rather have this on SNF than Colts-Vikings.

Lions (-3.5) at Packers: All eight of the Lions' games this season have been played indoors, and they have a three-game losing streak outdoors going back to last season, so I'm kinda curious to see if their offense still looks like an unstoppable juggernaut in Green Bay that it has been during its last four games. I'm not about to pick against them, though.

Colts at Vikings (-5.5): When Eagles-Jaguars got flexed out of Sunday Night Football, I was so happy that I didn't even bother caring about what got put in there instead. Apparently it's this crappy matchup. The Vikings got out to a hot start before cooling off, while the Colts have a base level of competency because of their offensive line, but they have benched second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco. 

Give me the Vikings to win, but I kinda like the Colts better with Flacco than I do with Richardson and I'll take the 5.5 points.

Buccaneers at Chiefs (-9): It's just going to be too hard for the Buccaneers to compete with good teams without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. The Chiefs should cruise to 8-0.