November 04, 2015
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 9 picks. To note, the helmets indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Browns at Bengals (-12.5): Johnny Football is starting! Johnny Football is starting! Someone alert ESPN! One of Manziel's three career starts came against Cincinnati a year ago, and here were his numbers:
10 of 18 (55.6 percent), 80 yards (4.4 YPA), 0 TD, 2 INT, 3 sacks, 27.3 QB rating. The Bengals won 30-0, and taunted Manziel with his dumb money rub crap all game:
Packers (-3) at Panthers: Awesome game. Last week in Denver, Aaron Rodgers was human, when he managed just 77 yards on 22 pass attempts against an outstanding Broncos defense in Denver. This week, Rodgers will have his second very difficult challenge against a really good Panthers defense on the road in Carolina. The Panthers are a legit "old-school" team, with a strong run game and physical defense, but Rodgers will make enough throws to put points on the board, and the underrated Packers defense will do enough defensively to allow the offense to outscore them.
Dolphins at Bills (-3): In Week 3, the Bills put in on the Dolphins 41-14 in Miami. Since then, the Bills have dropped three of four. They got man-handled by a Giants team with a historically bad defense, they squeaked out a 1-point win against a terrible Titans team, they were easily handled by the Bengals and lost in London to an awful Jaguars team. Conversely, the Dolphins played their worst football early in the season and have shown more recently that they can be competent. Take the Phins. 
Rams at Vikings (-2.5): The hype leading up to this game is real Adrian Peterson against #NextAdrianPeterson, Todd Gurley, who has been an absolute beast through his first four starts in the NFL. As we noted in this week's hierarchy/obituary, here's what Gurley has done:
| Todd Gurley | Rushes | Yards | YPC | TD |
| Cardinals | 19 | 146 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Packers | 30 | 159 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Browns | 19 | 128 | 6.7 | 2 |
| 49ers | 20 | 133 | 6.7 | 1 |
| TOTAL | 88 | 566 | 6.4 | 3 |
Meanwhile, the Vikings have played one of the softest schedules in the NFL. Here are the Vikings' opponents, and where they rank in Football Outsiders' DVOA:
| Opponent | DVOA |
| 49ers | 32 |
| Lions | 31 |
| Chargers | 23 |
| Broncos | 6 |
| Chiefs | 11 |
| Lions | 31 |
| Bears | 29 |
Jaguars at Jets (-2.5): The Jaguars have a 12-game road losing streak, in which they've been outscored by a total of 358-181, or an average of 14.75 points per game. Here are their last 12 road games, dating back to the 2013 season:
| Jaguars on the road | Opponent | Jaguars |
| Colts | 30 | 10 |
| Eagles | 34 | 17 |
| Redskins | 41 | 10 |
| Chargers | 33 | 14 |
| Titans | 16 | 14 |
| Bengals | 33 | 23 |
| Colts | 23 | 3 |
| Ravens | 20 | 12 |
| Texans | 23 | 17 |
| Patriots | 51 | 17 |
| Colts | 16 | 13 |
| Buccaneers | 38 | 31 |
| TOTAL | 358 | 181 |
I don't care who's playing quarterback for the Jets. Just take them at 2.5.
Raiders at Steelers (-4.5): Hey look, the Raiders might be good again. In the last two weeks they blew out the Chargers and Jets in games in which the final score did not match the way Oakland dominated. These are the games I hate picking. Do you trust what you think you see in a team currently, or do you let what they've been over the last decade mess with what you see now? I wouldn't touch this game with a 10-foot pole, but for the purposes of making a pick, picking the Steelers at home is usually a good idea.
Giants (-1) at Buccaneers: As we noted earlier this week, the Giants defense is on pace to be historically awful. They are on pace to allow 6892 yards (2nd worst ever), 392 first downs (again, second worst ever), 47.7 percent first down conversion rate (eighth worst ever), and they're only on pace for 18 sacks (seventh worst ever). Still, it's the Bucs.
Falcons (-7) at 49ers: The Falcons might be the most overrated team in the NFL while the Niners might be the worst team in the NFL. A lot of people are going to say that the 49ers are doubly screwed because they replaced Colin Kaepernick in the starting lineup with freaking Blaine Gabbert. There are some who think that move was a mercy benching:
Finally watched Rams-49ers. Kaepernick was genuinely painful to watch. I believe Tomsula truly sees it as a mercy benching.
— Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal) November 5, 2015
Broncos (-5) at Colts: I am stunned by how terrible the Colts look this season. Luckily for them, the AFC South as a whole is 9-21 with a point differential of -155. The Colts have turned the ball over 19 times this season (second-worst in the NFL), while the Broncos have forced 17 turnovers (third-best in the NFL). Meanwhile, Peyton Manning is finally beginning to wake up a little. Broncos all day.
Eagles (-2.5) at Cowboys: Offensively, the Eagles "just have to clean up some things." Or they "just have to execute better." Or they just have to catch the ball. Or block better. Or just clean up some timing and rhythm issues with their offense. Or Sam Bradford just has to be more accurate. That what bad teams say they have to do when they're just... bad. The Eagles defense should have another good showing against a Dallas offense that is still missing Tony Romo, but I have no confidence that the offense has suddenly figured things out during a bye week.
Bears at Chargers (-4): Ew, this is the Monday night game? What was ESPN thinking on this one before the season began? The Bears were quite clearly going to be bad, and the Chargers find a way to be mediocre every season. San Diego has lost four straight, but, you know, Bears.
Byes: Lions, Chiefs, Cardinals, Seahawks, Ravens, Texans
Picks against the spread: Rams (+3), Jets (-2.5), Giants (-1), Broncos (-5), Cowboys (+2.5).
Last week, straight up: 9-5
Season, straight up: 77-42
Last week, ATS: 2-3-1
Season, ATS: 20-18-1
Follow Jimmy on Twitter: @JimmyKempski
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