October 29, 2020
For the gambling enthusiasts, here are my Week 8 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread. All the below spreads are courtesy of the consensus Week 8 odds at TheLines.com.
Falcons at Panthers (-2): A recap of the Thursday night games so far this year:
Week 1 was of course the NFL kickoff game, and they went Deshaun Watson vs. Patrick Mahomes, which makes sense. Since then, there's been one interesting matchup all season (Bucs-Bears). Are they just like, "Screw it, they'll watch whatever we put on?"
Patri*ts at Bills (-3.5): In their last 12 games going back to last season, the Patri*ts are 4-8. They have also lost three straight games, in which they have averaged fewer than 300 total yards per game. The Patri*ts had an extremely long, sustained period of dominance (helped by cheating, of course), and it's going to take some time to get used to viewing them as a bad team, which is what they now are.
In the meantime, bet against them until the rest of the population catches up, because there's no way that this line should only be 3.5 points.
Titans (-5.5) at Bengals: Derrick Henry vs. one of the worst run defenses in the NFL feels like a pretty easy call.
Raiders at Browns (-2.5): Both of these teams look like legitimate playoff contenders one week, and like trash the next. I don't trust either of them.
Colts (-3) at Lions: If the Lions can somehow beat the Colts on Sunday, they'll have a stretch of easy games thereafter:
Could they be surprise playoff contenders?
Nah.
Vikings at Packers (-6.5): The Packers beat the Vikings handily Week 1, and swept them in 2019. The Vikings have already begun selling off assets, and we eulogized them on Tuesday.
Jets at Chiefs (-19.5): Hm, the best team in the NFL vs. the worst team in the NFL? Tough choice here. Actually, if you haven't used the Chiefs yet in your survivor pool, it's not the best week to play hero and pick anyone else, in my opinion. Actually, this will be my third straight week picking against the Jets, which I don't like to do, but, I mean, come on.
Rams (-4) at Dolphins: Are the Dolphins kinda good now, or am I crazy? When you look at their roster, there aren't many recognizable names, but they are well coached, and they have smoked their last two opponents (the 49ers 43-17, and the Jets 24-0). Tua Tagovailoa will make his first NFL start on Sunday, and I'm in for the ride. Give me Miami to win, oh and sure, I'll take 4 points too.
Steelers at Ravens (-4): I got a good look at both of these teams preparing for their matchups against the Eagles (and in the actual Eagles games), and I think it's just as simple as saying that I think the Steelers are better. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Also, the Steelers are good at stopping the run, which matches up nicely against what the Ravens do best (run the ball).
Chargers (-3.5) at Broncos: For my Giants fan readers: Would you rather have Josh Allen (the pass rusher) and Justin Herbert, or Daniel Jones and Andrew Thomas?
I mean, we all know the answer. Just, lol.
Saints (-4.5) at Bears: Nick Foles isn't good right now. Sorry. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
If I know Nick Foles, however, he has one more really bad performance in him before Chicago fans completely turn on him, he gets benched, and then improbably wins a couple of games to close the season and make the playoffs after Mitch Trubisky gets hurt.
49ers at Seahawks (-2.5): The Seahawks haven't played a bad game all year. The Niners have played several. Give me the team that hasn't played any bad games. #Analysis.
Cowboys at Eagles (-7.5): This line opened at 6.5 points, is up to 7.5, and I suspect it'll jump even higher once Andy Dalton is ruled out and the Cowboys have to start Ben DiNucci. Get your bets in before that happens, because this Cowboys team is straight garbage.
If the Eagles can't smoke this train wreck of a team, then what are we even doing?
Buccaneers (-10.5) at Giants: The Giants' margins of defeat this season:
At 10.5 points, the Giants would have covered 6 of 7 games. Are we thinking the Bucs are such a juggernaut that they should be double-digit road favorites? I'll take the 10.5.
• Picks against the spread: Bills (-3.5), Steelers (+4), Dolphins (+4), Eagles (-7.5), Giants (+10.5).
• Eagles picks: 3-3-1
• 2020 season, straight up: 67-35-1 (0.655)
• 2020 season, ATS: 19-16-1 (0.542)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
• Last 6 years, ATS: 222-179-10 (0.552)
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