October 24, 2024
Eric Hartline/Imagn Images
The Eagles have had some ugly performances against the Bengals over the last two decades.
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 8 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Vikings (-2.5) at Rams: Colleen Wolfe made an interesting observation on the NFL Daily podcast that teams that face the Lions one week often get blown out the next week. So I went and looked, and yeah, sure enough:
| Week | Lions opponent | Opponent's next game |
| 1 | Rams | Lost to Cardinals 41-10 |
| 2 | Buccaneers | Lost to Broncos 26-7 |
| 3 | Cardinals | Lost to Commanders 42-14 |
| 4 | Seahawks | Lost to Giants 29-20 |
| 5 | None | |
| 6 | Cowboys | None |
| 7 | Vikings | ??? |
In the four games teams played the Lions and then had a game the next week, they're 0-4 with a point differential of -87, including a home loss to the freaking Giants.
Before I heard that nugget, I kinda loved laying the -2.5 points with the Vikings, but that trend is scaring me off a bit, especially with the Vikings having to travel out to the west coast on a short week. (I'll still take them to win.)
The Bengals were outgained in those two games collectively by 118 yards. The Eagles outgained those 2 teams by 348 yards. So by that logic, I guess I'll take the Eagles.
Titans at Lions (-11): The 1-5 Titans are already sellers, as they sent DeAndre Hopkins to Kansas City. The Lions were the obvious top team in my Hierarchy this week, but here's what that would look like if we included the entire NFL and not just the NFC:
In other words, I think the Lions are very good, but 11 points is a little too rich for my blood.
Ravens (-8.5) at Browns: The Ravens' offense is a juggernaut. Their last five games:
| Ravens opponent | Points | Yards |
| Cowboys | 28 | 456 |
| Bills | 35 | 427 |
| Bengals | 41 | 520 |
| Commanders | 30 | 484 |
| Buccaneers | 41 | 508 |
| AVERAGE | 35.0 | 479.0 |
Packers (-3.5) at Jaguars: The Packers are one of the best teams in the NFL and the Jaguars are one of the worst. Why is this line only 3.5 points? What am I missing?
Colts at Texans (-5): I liked this line for the Colts when it was 6 points. I don't like it as much at 5. Don't get cute and take the Texans as your survivor pick this week. These teams are probably a little more evenly matched than is perceived, in my opinion.
Cardinals at Dolphins (-3.5): The Dolphins looked like one of the worst team in the NFL after they lost Tua Tagovailoa with a concussion. However, they also looked bad before Tua got hurt. Picking the Cardinals to win outright on the road feels like calling someone's bluff with a pair of deuces, but that's how convinced I am that the Dolphins are simply frauds, healthy Tua or not.
Falcons (-2.5) at Buccaneers: I like this Buccaneers team quite a bit and I think the Falcons are an average team, at best, but the losses of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans changes everything for the Bucs, whose offense is powered by those two players.
Jets (-7) at Patriots: This is a matchup between the second-worst team in the NFL and a team led by a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers whose 2024 season is reminding me a bit of Tom Brady's "Why the hell did I come back" 2022 season. I guess the difference between Brady and Rodgers is that Brady was still kinda good that year, and Rodgers has kinda stunk this year.
This should be a win for the Jets, though, and the people who never learn will talk themselves into them maybe contending in the AFC.
On a side note, oh hey, we're going to start putting something other than zeroes in the Haason Reddick sack and snap count tracker!
Bills (-3) at Seahawks: As noted above, I think the Bills are one of the four best teams in the NFL, and their acquisition of Amari Cooper last week was an immediate hit. They're just a really good, balanced team with a top 3 quarterback, while the Seahawks are wildly inconsistent.
Saints at Chargers (-7.5): I don't love this Chargers team, but the Saints have lost each of their last five games by a combined score of 151-86, including three straight losses by at least two scores.
Bears (-3) at Commanders: Jayden Daniels will miss this game for Washington, thus ruining the "Jayden Daniels - Caleb Williams Bowl."
After watching Marcus Mariota in training camp last year, I can't make this one of my picks against the spread, but I also think that this overrated Bears team shouldn't be 3-point road favorites over a much improved Commanders roster. And sure, why not, let's just take the Commanders to win outright.
Chiefs (-10) at Raiders: Next.
Panthers at Broncos (-10): I'm actually kind of tempted to lay 10 points with the Broncos here because the Panthers are just that bad, but I don't want this meaningless game affecting my record on some BS backdoor cover.
Cowboys at 49ers (-4): As noted in the Hierarchy this week, the Niners have owned Dak Prescott in recent years, and Prescott's performances have gotten progressively worse against this defense:
• 2021, Wildcard round: 23 of 43 for 254 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT. 17-23 loss.
• 2022, Divisional round: 23 of 37 for 206 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT. 12-19 loss.
• 2023, Week 5: 14 of 24 for 153 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT. 10-42 loss.
The Niners are kind of a mess at the moment, with injuries and other issues, but the Cowboys' vibes are even worse. I like the Niners' chances of getting out of their rut more than I trust the Cowboys.
Giants at Steelers (-6.5): The Steelers' pass rush is going to annihilate the Giants' offensive line.
Bye week: None.
• Last 10 seasons, ATS: 417-353-21 (0.538)
MORE: Eagles power ranking roundup
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