October 18, 2019
Each Friday for PhillyVoice, Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games this weekend. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com.
(Games 473 & 474 on the sports betting screen)
The Line: Cowboys minus-2.5/Total: 47.5
What is the line telling you: Oddsmakers opened up Jason Garrett’s team as 3-point home favorites over the Eagles with a combined total set at 47.5. Since then, there has been some early money enter the market on the Eagles at plus-3, which forced oddsmakers to adjust their price below that key number down to Dallas -2.5. The total has also seen a small one point uptick and currently sits at 48.5.
This game isn't easy to handicap with all the injuries on both teams, but as more and more information enters the market, it seems like the Cowboys are the more wounded animal of the two NFC East squads headed into Sunday Night.
So when there's a ton of injuries, you throw all the metrics and analytics and rely more on game theory to try and identify an edge.
The Cowboys could be without both of their starting cornerbacks, it looks like they will also be missing two huge components on their offensive line in tackles Tyron Smith and La’el Collins for the second straight game. It looks like wide receiver Amari Cooper for Dallas has also been ruled out.
We’re not sure if the Eagles are the better team when both teams are at full strength, but heading into this game, Philly is the healthier of the two squads. After getting blown out in Minnesota, the Eagles at plus-3 does offer some value. The Eagles catch a break getting back some key players on the defensive side this week with Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby.
If DeSean Jackson can go, then the Eagles become a much larger wager, and the Birds could blow them out.
Bottom line: Since the game is on the road, it's a coin flip. Anytime you're getting plus money on a coin flip, you have to take the points every time. Bet the Eagles plus-3.
(Games 459 & 460 on the sports betting screen)
The Line: Packers minus-6/Total: 46
What is the line telling you: Oddsmakers offshore opened this game with the Packers being 7.5-point favorites over the Raiders with the total set at 46 and we immediately saw an influx of sharp money attack the screen here on the dog and the over. The bet splits are slightly top heavy for now with Derek Carr and his 3-2 Oakland squad garnering right around 55% of all tickets punched offshore and in Vegas.
Here's another game where injuries are a problem for the home team. Eight players didn't practice on Thursday for Green Bay.
On offense, Davante Adams, Geronimo Allison and Marquez Valdes-Scantling all missed practice on Thursday, as did tight end Jimmy Graham. Backup tight end Robert Tonyan also sat out. The cheese in Green Bay has some big holes in it this week and they’re going up against an Oakland team that ranks five spots better in the yards-per-play metric, almost 10 spots better in yards-per-rush attempt, and has a top-five offensive line in pass protection. And on the defensive side, Oakland gives up more than a half-a-yard less per play on the road than the Packers do at home.
Bottom line: Take the dog Oakland Raiders at plus-6.
(Games 451 & 452 on the sports betting screen)
The Line: Giants minus-3/Total: 50
What is the line telling you: The books opened up the Giants as short 1-point home favorites over the Cardinals with the total set at 50. Since the news that Saquon Barkley is likely to play, the market reacted quickly. As of right now, New York is painted 3-point favorites across your sports betting screen.
We have two teams here who both rank in the basement in the opponent yards-per-play metric and overall defensive efficiency, and with the weather not looking to be a problem, expect a ton of points in this one.
The Giants averaged 7.6 yards per carry and 140 yards on the ground in the first two games with Saquon Barkley. Since Week 3, when he injured his ankle, their rushing totals unsurprisingly dropped to 3.8 yards per carry and 88 yards per game.
Expect the Giants to run the ball down the Cardinals throats, (Arizona gives up the sixth-most yards-per-rush attempt in the NFL) control the time of possession battle, and win the game.
Bottom line: The sharp money is on the Giants, whose offensive dynamics change dramatically when Barkley was on the field.
The Philly Godfather is 14-7 over the last five weeks.
(Betting lines are subject to change.)
The Philly Godfather can be followed on twitter @Phillygodfather & his website is www.thephillygodfather.com.
Follow Joe on Twitter: @JSantoliquito
Like us on Facebook: PhillyVoice Sports
