Week 6 NFL picks

For the gambling enthusiasts, here are my Week 6 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Commanders (-1) at Bears: On Monday, Ron Rivera had some disparaging words for his quarterback, Carson Wentz.

Rivera later tried to walk back those comments, explaining that Wentz was new to the team, while quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts, Daniel Jones, and Cooper Rush have all been with their teams for longer periods of time. Of course, Jones is in a new offensive system himself, and Rush is, well, a freaking backup who didn't even make the Cowboys' initial 53-man roster.

So that's how things are going in Washington. 

I do think that this is a game that Eagles fans should be rooting for the Commanders to win, by the way. The longer Wentz plays, the better, for a lot of reasons, most notably that the Commanders come to Philly Week 10, and I'd honestly rather face Wentz than Taylor Heinicke if I'm Jonathan Gannon.

49ers (-5.5) at Falcons: All five of the Falcons' games this season have been decided by 6 or fewer points, but the Niners' defense is simply choking out of their opponents so far. They're the No. 1 defense in points allowed, yards allowed, yards allowed per play, and first downs allowed.

Patri*ts at Browns (-2.5): I liked Bailey Zappe during the last draft cycle. He gave me some Gardner Minshew vibes. He is a player who made a big jump from Houston Baptist (an FCS school), where he put up video game numbers, to Western Kentucky, where he broke a buttload of FBS single-season passing records, to the NFL, where he has played well in his first two appearances with the Patri*ts. I think he can play a little bit, and I'm hopeful to be able to laugh at a competition between Zappe and Mac Jones for the right to be New England's mediocre quarterback.

Jets at Packers (-7.5): The Packers will almost certainly be back in the playoffs and they very well may rally and win enough games to win their division, but this isn't a team that is blowing out its weaker opponents. The public doesn't seem to want to admit that the Packers just aren't as good this season as we're used to seeing, hence this touchdown+ line. I love picking against these types of teams.

The Jets have some talent and should at least keep it close. Give me the Packers to win, but I'll take the 7.5 points.

Jaguars at Colts (-2): I don't know what to make of either of these teams. The Jaguars are legitimately talented, but are young and inconsistent, while the Colts have played like utter trash this season, but have somehow managed to stay competitive at 2-2-1. I'll take the young, feisty team, I guess, but with no confidence.

Vikings (-3.5) at Dolphins: Lol:

Yeah, too much ping pong made the Dolphins give up 40 points to the Jets.

Bengals (-1.5) at Saints: After a slow start, the Bengals have looked better the last three weeks, even if they lost Week 5 in Baltimore. The Saints got a crazy Week 5 performance out of Taysom Hill against an awful Seahawks defense, but I'm actually more down on New Orleans after that game, even with the win. The one thing that the Saints theoretically had going for them was their defense, which has given up 27 points per game, and at least 20 points in every game.

Ravens (-6) at Giants: If the Giants somehow win this game, it might be time to acknowledge that they're good. Or not. We'll see.

Buccaneers (-8) at Steelers: The Steelers are a sneaky No. 1 overall pick possibility.

Panthers at Rams (-10.5): The Panthers finally pulled the plug on Matt Rhule, and the Panthers are obviously a mess right now. Of course, so are the Rams, who look absolutely nothing like a team coming off a Super Bowl win. Their offensive line is a disaster and Matthew Stafford is clearly hurt. And they're laying 10.5 points?

Cardinals (-3) at Seahawks: The Cardinals have a better roster than the Seahawks, but they are poorly coached and I don't believe Kyler Murray will ever get the most out of his talent.

Bills (-3) at Chiefs: Eagles-Cowboys is a huge game, and locally it's the biggest Eagles October matchup in a long time, but Bills-Chiefs is the game of the week. The Chiefs were my preseason Super Bowl pick, and I'm sticking with them.

Cowboys at Eagles (-6): I thought the Eagles were better than the Cowboys when both teams were at full strength during training camp, and that thinking has only been fortified further by (a) the potential season-ending injury to LT Tyron Smith, (b) the short-term loss of Dak Prescott, and (c) the Eagles' 5-0 start.

Give the Cowboys credit. It looked like their season was going straight down the toilet after a Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers during which the Cowboys' offense looked atrocious for more than three quarters before Prescott injured his thumb, but they have rallied behind their defense to win their next four games, even with Cooper Rush at quarterback.

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Rush hasn't been good, as the Cowboys' offense is mostly impotent. They only have 12 plays of 20+ yards, and they're averaging just 8.8 passing first downs per game. They are bottom five in the NFL in both of those statistical metrics. On the other hand, Rush also hasn't been bad. He has 0 INTs and 0 lost fumbles in his four starts. In this matchup, he's going to have to do more than simply not giving the game away, so we'll see how that goes.

The Cowboys have been able to beat their last four opponents by abusing overmatched Bengals, Giants, Commanders, and Rams offensive lines with strong performances from Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. The Eagles' offensive line, when healthy, will not be overmatched by anyone. There is some concern with the health of the Birds' O-line, as four starters are on the injury report, but it feels likely that their five starters will be good to go for Sunday night.

If the Cowboys' pass rush is neutralized, as I suspect it will be, at least in comparison to their recent opponents, the Eagles should finally be able to put this team away.  

Broncos at Chargers (-4.5): The Broncos have arguably been the ugliest, most boring team to watch so far in the NFL this season, and this is now their fourth primetime game in six weeks. It's just hard to imagine why the schedule makers thought this team was going to have wide national appeal. 

Teams on their bye week: Lions, Titans, Raiders, and Texans.

• Last 8 years, ATS: 313-258-13 (0.547)

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