October 10, 2024
Scott Galvin/Imagn Images
If Nick Sirianni and the Eagles can't handle the woeful Browns on Sunday...
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 6 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
49ers (-3.5) at Seahawks: Even after all the bad vibes throughout the offseason, injuries to a bunch of their best players, and a frustrating 2-3 start, the Niners will be back atop the NFC West if they can beat the Seahawks, who they have beaten in five straight matchups. Credit to the NFL where it's due (or perhaps better stated, good job crying for better games, Amazon Prime) — the Thursday Night Football matchups have been better this year.
Jaguars vs. Bears (-2) in London: In 11 games since 2013 when they started playing games in London, the Jags are 6-5 (0.545). They are 53-120 (0.306) in America during that span. So I do think that they have a "familiarity" advantage playing overseas every year, while their opponents have to adjust to a weird schedule leading up those games.
Commanders at Ravens (-6.5): The Commanders' offense has been one of the more impressive units so far this season, but the four teams they have beaten have a combined record of 6-14 (0.300). Should they beat a tried-and-true team like the Ravens on the road, I think we have to start considering them an actual contender in the NFC. I don't think we're there yet. Their defense simply has way too many holes, and the Ravens can exploit them. This is a fascinating matchup, though. I'm curious to see if the Commanders can go toe-to-toe with an annual Super Bowl contender.
Cardinals at Packers (-5): The Packers overcame a shaky day from Jordan Love and still picked up a win on the road in L.A. last week. They haven't yet gotten a standout performance from Love this season, and yet they have still played well enough to win in every game so far. The Cardinals are coming off an unlikely (and kinda lucky) road win in San Francisco, but they are clearly the inferior team in this matchup.
Texans (-7) at Patriots: I'm not sure why the Patriots waited until Week 6 to start Drake Maye, but he'll make his NFL starting debut against Houston. I don't think that'll go so well for him behind a brutally bad offensive line, and against a Texans defense that has been good against the pass through the first five games.
Buccaneers (-3.5) at Saints: Remember when the Saints were the toast of the NFL after Week 2? Well, they've lost three straight, and their Wednesday injury report looked like this:
Derek Carr is out with an oblique injury, and Spencer Rattler will get the start. I wasn't a Rattler fan when he was in college, and I'm certainly not now against a Todd Bowles defense.
Browns at Eagles (-9): The Eagles are coming off of their bye and will benefit from the returns of A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson. They are about as healthy as a football team can reasonably be heading into Week 6. The Browns, meanwhile, listed 19 players on their initial injury report, including four of their five offensive line starters, a few of their OL reserves, and a bunch of key players in their secondary.
But more importantly, serial sexual assaulter Deshaun Watson has been abysmal.
Deshaun Watson is averaging -0.30 EPA per dropback, the lowest number for any Browns QB in Weeks 1-5 since at least 2000.
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) October 6, 2024
The second-worst performance? Deshaun Watson last season (-0.20).
The Browns have had some truly awful starting quarterbacks over the last 24 years. Guys like Tim Couch, Kelly Holcomb, Trent Dilfer, Charlie Frye, Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn, Brandon Weeden, Brian Hoyer, Johnny Manziel, Robert Griffin III, Cody Kessler, DeShone Kizer, etc. So it's no small feat to out-awful other awful Browns quarterbacks of yesteryear.
If the Eagles can't find a way to win this home game against this putrid, injury-ravaged team, especially after the Phillies pathetically no-showed in the playoffs, there are going to be a whole lot of angry calls from Philly fans for Nick Sirianni's head.
Colts at Titans (-2.5): This line suggests that these two teams are evenly matched. But even with all their injuries, I just like this Colts team more than the sucky-ass Titans. From a matchup perspective, the best parts of this Titans team (their defensive line) should be neutralized by the Colts' very good offensive line.
Chargers (-3) at Broncos: The Broncos' defense is fourth in DVOA, and their special teams are second. They have held each of their last four opponents to under 20 points:
• Steelers: L, 13-6
• At Buccaneers: W, 26-7
• At Jets: W, 10-9
• Raiders: W, 34-18
That would be an average of 11.8 points allowed per game during that span. Neither of these offenses are all that scary, so I expect a low-scoring game. Give me the home team that is playing with confidence, and the points.
Steelers (-3) at Raiders: Justin Fields is bad, but I'll take my chances with the Steelers' defense against Aidan O'Connell, a quarterback who couldn't beat out Gardner Minshew in training camp.
Falcons (-6) at Panthers: The Panthers are ranked 29th in offensive DVOA and 30th in defensive DVOA. My #analysis: They're a bad football team.
Lions (-3) at Cowboys: The Lions look very much like Super Bowl contenders, and they're healthy coming off of their bye. Meanwhile, the Cowboys' defense will be without DeMarcus Lawrence, Sam Williams, and Marshawn Kneeland. They'll also likely be without Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland. Even if Parsons plays, he will not be close to 100 percent. This game is a mismatch. I'll lay the 3 points.
Bengals (-3) at Giants: Every time Daniel Jones has a good game people lose their minds. He's 1-14 in primetime games. Bengals, please.
Bills (-2.5) at Jets: This Jets team is a mess at the moment, with the firing of Robert Salah, whose defense has been far less concerning than the play of Sandy Hook skeptic Aaron Rodgers. But working in the Jets' favor is that they are facing a Bills team that is playing their third straight road game, and I never bet against the "fired head coach bump." Give me the Bills to win, but not with enough confidence to make them one of my picks against the spread.
BYES: Vikings, Chiefs, Rams, Dolphins.
• Last 10 seasons, ATS: 408-350-21 (0.537)
MORE: Eagles power ranking roundup
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