October 03, 2024
Robert Deutsch/Imagn Images
The Cowboys will very likely be without star pass rusher Micah Parsons, and a bunch of other linemen, too.
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 5 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Buccaneers at Falcons (-2): As noted repeatedly here, the Buccaneers are the most competent and balanced of the NFC South teams. It's why they have won the division each of the last three years. If you're going to give me 2 points in this matchup, sure, I'll take them.
LONDON: Jets "at" Vikings (-2.5): This line suggests that the Jets and Vikings are closely matched teams, which if you've seen each of them play this season. you know that couldn't be farther from reality. The Vikings have legitimately been the best team in the NFL through the first four weeks, while the Jets have been a middle-of-the-road team, at best. This line made me look up the Vikings' injuries, and, nope, nothing super alarming there. What am I missing? Why is this line only 2.5 points? Let's go ahead and make this a #JimmyLock.
Panthers at Bears (-4): This crappy Bears team might be 3-2 after Week 5.
Ravens (-2.5) at Bengals: At first glance this looked like a tasty Ravens line at (-2.5), but their inconsistency worries me. The Bengals, meanwhile, are out to a 1-3 start this season, but Week 1 aside their offense has actually played really well. I'll pick the Ravens to win the game, but I can't pull the trigger on laying the 2.5 points.
Bills (-1) at Texans: The Bills got smoked in Baltimore last week, but they're still one of the best teams in the NFL. The Texans are 3-1. Their three wins were close contests against weak opponents, and they got blown out in their loss. The Texans are a fun team on the rise, but the Bills just feel a little more tried and true to me.
Colts at Jaguars (-3): How are the Jaguars favored over anybody right now? They're ranked 21st in offensive DVOA, 32nd in defensive DVOA, 25th in special teams DVOA, 30th overall in DVOA, and they're 0-4 with a point differential of -49, third-worst in the NFL.
Dolphins at Patriots (-1): I can't believe I'm picking the Patriots to win a game, but the Dolphins might be the worst team in the NFL.
Browns at Commanders (-3): On my walk from Raymond James Stadium back to my hotel after the Eagles' loss to the Bucs on Sunday, I stopped at a sports bar to catch the endings of the late afternoon games. There were a bunch of Browns fans there, oddly, all tuned in to their matchup against the Raiders. On the final play of the game, Deshaun Watson took a sack instead of at least trying some kind of desperation throw.
Is it time for the Browns to go to Jameis Winston?
— PlayerProfiler NFL (@Profiler_NFL) September 30, 2024
Deshaun Watson can't get right!pic.twitter.com/D6ce9VDVbE
Raiders at Broncos (-3): The Broncos' defense is allowing fewer than 10 points per game over their last three games, and the Raiders soon might not have a disgruntled Davante Adams.
Cardinals at 49ers (-7): The Niners cruised to an easy win over an inferior Patriots team last week, and I imagine they'll do the same against the Cardinals, who they have swept each of the last two years, by a combined score of 156-68. I don't normally like laying 7 or more points, but I'll make an exception here.
Packers (-3) at Rams: The Packers got off to a nightmare start in Jordan Love's return to the field last Sunday, as the Vikings got out to a 28-0 lead due to a couple of Packers missed field goals, and two Love INTs. But once he settled in, the Packers made a furious comeback that came up just short. The way they played in the second half of that game perhaps bodes well for Love and the Packers going forward. Meanwhile, the Rams remain extremely banged up.
Giants at Seahawks (-6): The Seahawks are ranked 4th in DVOA (5th offense, 8th defense). The Giants are the Giants.
Cowboys at Steelers (-2.5): Yes! What a great Sunday Night Football game. A look at the Cowboys' defensive line:
• Micah Parsons: Likely out with a high ankle sprain.
• DeMarcus Lawrence: On IR with a Lisfranc injury.
• Sam Williams: Torn ACL, season over.
• Jordan Phillips: IR, wrist injury.
And this is after they lost Dorance Armstrong, Dante Fowler, and Johnathan Hankins in free agency.
On the back end, they're still without DaRon Bland, and guys like Andrew Booth are filling in and getting cooked.
Malik Nabers making guys touch grass 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/OEshvF2TSc
— NFL (@NFL) September 27, 2024
Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb are going to have to win this game on their own. I don't see it.
Saints at Chiefs (-5.5): The shine is off this Saints team that came out super hot, but has since dropped a couple of games to the Eagles and Falcons. The Chiefs have exclusively played heartburn games that they've eked out in the end. I'll take them to win, but I'm not laying 5.5 points. I'd beware this matchup in survivor leagues, for the 0.5% of you who are still alive.
• Last 10 seasons, ATS: 406-347-20 (0.538)
MORE: Eagles power ranking roundup
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