October 05, 2017
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 5 NFL picks. To note, the helmets indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Patriots (-5.5) at Buccaneers: It's hard to imagine a scenario in which the Patriots begin the season at 2-3. The Pats will find a way to spread MRSA into the Bucs' locker room or something, if need be.
Bills at Bengals (-3): The Bills are playing well, and have allowed just 13.5 points per game so far this season. However, they had to put Colt Anderson on IR this week, which means their season is basically over.
Jets at Browns (-1): I still can't understand how the Browns are favored over anyone. Why do people think this is an improved team?
Panthers at Lions (-2.5): These are two teams that I like quite a bit this season, so it's tough to pick between the two. I'm going to ride the Lions, who have a very underrated quarterback and coaching staff.
49ers at Colts (-1.5): Gross.
Titans at Dolphins (-1): Yes, the Titans lost by 43 last week, and yes, Marcus Mariota might not play this week. However, after stupidly talking myself into the Dolphins twice this season, I've come to the conclusion that they're trash.
Chargers at Giants (-3.5): The Chargers will leave Los Angeles to play in front of a less hostile crowd at MetLife Stadium. The Giants are in a free fall, and will continue to be, I think. From the Eagles fan perspective, it's probably more ideal if the Giants win a game like this. Their chances of landing a franchise quarterback in the draft are a lot better if they go 3-13 instead of 6-10.
Cardinals at Eagles (-6.5): As we noted in our five matchups to watch, the Cardinals' offensive line is an absolute mess, and they are going to have their hands full trying to block an Eagles defensive line that might be getting Fletcher Cox back this week. (Update: They probably won't be getting Cox back this week -- doesn't change the pick.)
Jaguars at Steelers (-8.5): The Jaguars look good one week, garbage the next. I guess that's a step up from garbage every week. Also, survivor pick alert (we'll keep this going until I fail you).
Week 1: Bills
Week 2: Raiders
Week 3: Patriots
Week 4: Seahawks
Week 5: Steelers
Seahawks at Rams (-1.5): This feels like the time of year when the Seahawks begin to break out of their yearly early season funk. The Rams are the the surprise team of the NFL so far, which has to annoy Seattle's competitive players. I'm not big on intangibles, but I think the Seahawks will really want this game.
Ravens at Raiders (-2.5): The Raiders have been one of the early disappointments so far this season, whereas the Ravens have just stunk. Still, the Raiders will be without Derek Carr on Sunday, and I just can't get myself to pick a team led by backup E.J. Manuel.
Packers at Cowboys (-2.5): Let's just re-live this for a moment:
Advice: Expand that video to full screen, and watch it over and over, picking out one individual person in the crowd each time, and watching their reaction as the ball appears to be wide left, then straightens out and goes through. You can see their split second of hope, only to be crushed in an instant.
Anyway, I think the Cowboys get a small measure of revenge, too little, too late.
Chiefs (-1.5) at Texans: I won't be picking against the Chiefs anytime soon.
Vikings (-3.5) at Bears: The Vikings may be without Sam Bradford (the horror!), but the Bears are still the Bears. I don't like the chances of a rookie quarterback (in this case, Mitchell Trubisky) making his NFL debut against Mike Zimmer's double A-gap blitz package.
• Picks against the spread: Jets (+1), Chargers (+3.5), Seahawks (+1.5), Ravens (+2.5)
• 2017 season, straight up: 39-24 (.619)
• 2017 season, ATS: 8-8 (.500)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
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