Week 4 NFL picks

Todd Bowles has had Jalen Hurts' number over the years, but I like the Eagles' chances of running the ball against an injury-weakened Bucs defensive line, even if the Bucs have historically had a very stingy run defense. I also like the Eagles' chances of winning in the trenches in this game, specifically along the interior of the line, where the Bucs have shaky guards and a rookie center.

Saints at Falcons (-2.5): Folks who cover the Eagles have a little bit of a unique perspective on this game in that the Saints and Falcons were the Eagles' last two opponents. Although the Eagles lost at home to the Falcons and won on the road against the Saints, there is no question in my mind that the Saints are better. This line suggests that they are more or less even. Give me the Saints outright, and yeah I'll gladly take some points on top. I just don't see whatever it is people like about this Falcons team.

Steelers (-1.5) at Colts: The 3-0 Steelers are the surprise team in the AFC, as their defense has put the clamps on all three of their opponents so far this season. Their results so far:

1. At Falcons: 18-10
2. At Broncos 13-6
3. Chargers 20-10

They're averaging 8.7 points allowed per game.

The Colts present an interesting challenge for the Steelers, in that they have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, however, Anthony Richardson (49.3% completion percentage, 3 TDs, 6 INTs) isn't playing well coming off his 2023 injury. I like the Steelers' defense's chances of making plays against him.

Jaguars at Texans (-6.5): Trevor Lawrence has now lost 8 straight starts, and the Jaguars have averaged 17.1 points scored in those games. The Jaguars have the second-worst point differential in the NFL:

I would have to think that Doug Pederson's job is in serious peril. There's nothing Jacksonville can do with Lawrence, who they just signed to a five-year extension worth $275 million. That contract is looking like it might be a disaster.

Vikings at Packers (-3): Jordan Love's recovery from a Week 1 knee injury is progressing faster than expected, and he reportedly has a decent shot of starting this game. I think I like the Vikings either way. Malik Willis has played well in relief of Love, but he's young and inexperienced and I don't like his chances against Brian Flores' hyper-aggressive scheme. If Love starts, again, he too is young and kinda inexperienced, and I'd be worried if I'm a Packers fan that he is returning too soon.

The Vikings are among the hottest teams out of the gate this season, and dare I say I'm beginning to trust Sam Darnold?

Bengals (-4) at Panthers: The Bengals are reeling at 0-3, but they're not a bad team. They nearly knocked off the Chiefs at Arrowhead Week 2, and they didn't punt or turn the ball over in their loss to the Commanders Week 3. In that game, their offensive possessions went like so:

1. TD
2. Missed FG
3. FG
4. FG
5. TD
6. TD
7. TD

They have to get their act together defensively at least a little bit at some point, right?

Meanwhile, the Panthers had a surprise offensive explosion Week 3 in Las Vegas, but let's not pretend that they are anything other than a bottom 3 team. Give me the Bengals, and alright, I'll lay 4 points, which feels like a reasonable bargain.

Rams at Bears (-3): It feels like the Bears are a team that people want to believe are good, but all the evidence so far this season points to them still being pretty bad. The Rams have a ton of injuries — most notably WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, OG Jonah Jackson, S John Johnson III, OG Steve Avila, and OT Joe Noteboom — but I just trust Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford more than Matt Eberflus and Caleb Williams. Give me the Rams to win outright, and sure, I'll take 3 points.

Broncos at Jets (-7.5): The Broncos will come back down to Earth after their surprising 26-7 road win over the Bucs Week 3. It's perhaps worth noting that this is their second straight long-distance road trip.

Commanders at Cardinals (-3.5): Before the season began, this looked like a game on the schedule that could be completely ignored, but after three games both of these teams have shown some life. The Cardinals have a good rushing attack and some playmakers on the outside, while the Commanders seem to have finally found their franchise quarterback in Jayden Daniels, you know, as long as he can stay healthy. Both of these teams' defenses stink, particularly the Commanders', who rank dead last in defensive DVOA.

Still, I'm buying Daniels as a future household name, and the Commanders are heading into the desert with confidence for the first time in a long time.

Patriots at 49ers (-10): The Niners have a slew of injuries, and they're still double-digit favorites over the Pats. The Patriots somehow beat the Bengals on the road Week 1 and they took the Seahawks to OT again on the road Week 2, but I think we saw in Week 3 against the Jets what they'll likely look like this season, which is a team that can't protect its quarterback.

Browns at Raiders (-2): Who cares?

Chiefs (-7.5) at Chargers: This line is 7.5 points because Justin Herbert likely won't play. Because backup quarterbacks move from team to team like nomads, it's hard to remember who the No. 2 is on every team. I knew they had added someone instead of rolling with Easton Stick, but I couldn't remember who. Answer here.

Bills at Ravens (-2.5): The Bills faced a 17-3 deficit against the Cardinals Week 1. Since then, they have outscored their opponents 109-31. They look very much like Super Bowl contenders, just as they have each of the last few seasons.

The Ravens' defense has been one of the more disappointing units in the NFL so far this season. In 2023, they gave up 25 or more points twice in 19 games. In 2024, after losing Mike Macdonald to the Seahawks, they've given up at least 25 points in all three games.

Titans at Dolphins (-1): This is one of two Monday Night Football games this week, and oof, both of theses teams are a mess. The Dolphins were always frauds, at least in terms of being Super Bowl contenders. They lost Tua Tagovailoa, and they somehow don't have a good backup despite his obvious durability concerns, and their defense sucks. Meanwhile, the 0-3 Titans lost their their first two games because of bonehead decisions by Will Levis, who has thrown 5 INTs and fumbled so far in every game. 

The Titans have looked more functional to me, and maybe Levis will stop doing dumb things? Give me Tennessee with zero confidence.

Seahawks at Lions (-3.5): This line suggests that the Lions and Seahawks are close to equals as teams. The Seahawks are 3-0, mainly because they got to play Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett, and Skylar Thompson. But in my opinion, the Lions are a significantly better team, and I'll lay the 3.5 points. Even in the game they lost, the Lions outgained the Bucs 463-216.