Week 3 NFL picks

Meanwhile, the Eagles' pass rush sucks. Bryce Huff looks disinterested, Josh Sweat looks more like the player he was during the back half of 2023 than the one he was in 2022 and the first half of 2023, Nolan Smith doesn't seem ready to make plays in an elevated role, and Jordan Davis has been a non-factor. If you're an opposing offensive coordinator, scheming protections is pretty straightforward — double Jalen Carter, and dare everyone else to win their one-on-ones.

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The problem for the Eagles is that there really shouldn't be much realistic hope that their pass rush is going to substantially improve. Huff was invisible in training camp, so it's not as if his no-show for the first two games should come as a huge surprise, and let's not forget that the Eagles tried to trade Sweat this offseason but found no enthusiastic takers.

Give me the Saints. They're the hottest team out of the gate this season, and the Eagles' defense hasn't shown that they are ready to cool them off. 36-27.

Chargers at Steelers (-1.5): The Steelers have only scored one touchdown so far this season, but they're 2-0 because their pass rush was able to take advantage of an immobile Kirk Cousins Week 1 and a not-yet-ready rookie in Bo Nix Week 2. In Week 3 they'll face a Chargers offense that has a more balanced attack, and thus won't be able to play as conservatively on offense as they have with Justin Fields at quarterback. This is the week we see Fields make some big mistakes. 

The Chargers have the second-best point differential in the NFL, by the way, at +35.

Bears at Colts (-1): I'm not giving up yet on the Colts as my undervalued team, even at 0-2. I love their offensive line, and trust that they'll make enough plays defensively against a struggling Caleb Williams.

Texans (-1.5) at Vikings: This line opened at Texans (-3.5) but is down to Texans (-1.5) because they have a lot of important players who did not practice on Wednesday. The Vikings are one of the early surprise 2-0 teams this season, but to me, the Texans look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders with an overlooked defense and quality depth that can win in a variety of ways. A 1.5-point spread feels like a bargain, even with some injuries.

Giants at Browns (-6.5): This is a matchup between two teams that made massive quarterback signing mistakes that were pretty obviously bad at the time they made them. Neither team is going anywhere as long as those mistakes remain in place. But in "bad vs. bad" matchups, the Browns still employ Myles Garrett, and the Giants still have issues along their offensive line.

Broncos at Buccaneers (-6.5): The knock on Bo Nix coming out of college was that he didn't have good arm strength, and that he would have to succeed in the NFL by throwing with good timing and anticipation. Well, throwing with anticipation is something that takes some time to master in the NFL, so Broncos fans can expect a lot of frustrating performances early in Nix's career, and Todd Bowles is certainly capable of putting together a game plan to exploit him.

Packers at Titans (-2): This line was Titans (-3) at one point, and I was going to be all over the Packers, but it's down to Titans (-2). I like the Packers' chances of relying on their quality rushing attack and just waiting for Will Levis to do something dumb. Eh, screw it... I'll still bite at Packers (+2).

Panthers at Raiders (-5): This line was originally Raiders (-7), but it dropped two points when the Panthers announced they were benching Bryce Young for an almost 37-year-old Andy Dalton. That's a bad look for Young.

I do think the Panthers have a better chance of winning a game at some point with Dalton at quarterback, and this will be one of their better opportunities, but it would be dumb to pick them when they've looked like they're some DII team playing Oklahoma.

Dolphins at Seahawks (-4.5): The Dolphins were frauds before they lost Tua Tagovailoa, and they're in even worse shape now with Skylar Thompson starting at quarterback.

Lions (-3) at Cardinals: The Cardinals are one of the surprise teams through the first two weeks of the season, with Kyler Murray playing well and the Cardinals' rushing attack churning out long drives. 

In their loss last week, the Lions outgained the Bucs 463-216, and they had 26 first downs to the Bucs' 14. The Bucs just made plays in crucial situations. I like the Lions' chances of bouncing back after a frustrating loss.

Ravens (-1) at Cowboys: Fun matchup. The Ravens are desperate for a win after starting 0-2, while the Cowboys are trying to rebound from a blowout loss Week 2 to the Saints. This feels like one of those seasons where the Eagles and Cowboys keep losing, and each teams' fans go, "Well, we're still tied for first place in the division."

49ers (-7) at Rams: Both of these teams are banged up, but the Rams will be without both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, which is the equivalent of the Eagles being without A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The Niners have better depth to survive their injuries.

Chiefs (-3.5) at Falcons: The Falcons came into the 2024 season with unwarranted hype and their road win over the Eagles on Monday night will only serve justify misguided optimism about their season outlook. But make no mistake, the Eagles lost to a downright bad team Monday night. There were several different moments that the Eagles could have buried them, but just didn't, and not because the Falcons did anything special to stop them. I'm surprised the Chiefs are only 3.5-point favorites. I'll lay that with the Chiefs over this overrated Falcons team all day.

Jaguars at Bills (-5): Josh Allen is who people want to believe Trevor Lawrence will be, but they aren't remotely close. The Bills look like the Super Bowl contenders they usually are, while the Jags look like a team likely to miss the playoffs for the second straight season.

Commanders at Bengals (-7.5): The Bengals are desperate for a win after turning in a stinker Week 1 against the Patriots and a heartbreaker Week 2 in Kansas City. They should be able to score on a woeful Commanders defense that even Daniel Jones played well enough against last week.

There are two Monday night games this week, by the way. Jags-Bills, 7:30 p.m., Commanders-Bengals, 8:15 p.m.