September 22, 2022
Geoff Burke/USA TODAY Sports
Will Sunday be the first Philly takeover of a stadium this season?
For the gambling enthusiasts, here are my Week 3 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Steelers at Browns (-4.5): I was excited when I woke up this morning and realized, "Oh hey it's Thursday, there's a football game tonight," until I realized it was Mitch Trubisky vs. Jacoby Brissett. Give me the Browns, I guess. They've at least been able to put points on the board, while the Steelers' offense isn't threatening at all.
On a side note, I'm surprised more wasn't made of Kevin Stefanski having his kids with him on the sidelines before the Browns choked the game away to the Jets last Sunday. I think the phrase, "If that happened in Philly" gets thrown around a little loosely, but if that happened in Philly...
Eagles (-6.5) at Commanders: The Eagles looked a whole lot like legitimate Super Bowl contenders on Monday night, and they'll try to carry that positive momentum over into their first NFC East matchup of the season. This will be the first of four games that the Eagles have to play on the road on short rest this season, which really shouldn't happen, but whatever.
I believe that a lot of the matchups favor the Eagles, notably:
The X-factor is Carson Wentz, who as we know has talent and the ability to make highlight reel throws. Of course, he also has a penchant for devastating mistakes, whether that be via inaccuracy, bad ball security, or horrendous decision making in the pocket. If he can string together four quarters of quality play while avoiding "the big mistake," the Commanders have the firepower offensively to beat good teams. Can Wentz control himself and play smart football against his former team, or will he play hero ball? The latter feels like a pretty good bet.
Oh, and there should be plenty of Eagles fans at Fed Ex Field, as always.
Chiefs (-5.5) at Colts: The Colts were set up to start this season 2-0 with games against the Texans and Jaguars Weeks 1 and 2. Instead, they're 0-1-1, after they tied Houston and got shut out 24-0 in Jacksonville. Offensively, they have an incredible running back in Jonathan Taylor, a decent young receiver in Michael Pittman, and an All-Pro LG. That's it. Otherwise, they have major holes on their offensive line and at wide receiver. This was a good roster at one point. Now... not so much, and Matt Ryan isn't a guy at this stage of his career who is remotely capable of carrying a team with a bad line and one decent receiver.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs just keep chugging along, and Andy Reid has an extra three days of preparation after playing on Thursday last week.
Ravens (-2.5) at Patri*ts: I would recommend that Bill Belichick and the Patri*ts try drawing up some tackle eligible-like nonsense like they did in the 2014 playoffs against the Ravens, because a traditional offense isn't going to score many points with their sucky players.
Texans at Bears (-2.5): Who cares?
Raiders (-1.5) at Titans: The Raiders only have one sack so far this season. I expect that to change on Sunday, as Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones should be able to take advantage of a Titans offense starting Dennis Daley at LT and rookie Nicholas Petit-Frere at RT.
Bills (-6) at Dolphins: The Bills have a +55 point differential so far this season after facing the Super Bowl champs and last year's 1 seed in the AFC. The next closest team at at +26. They very much look like a juggernaut. It'll be interesting to see how their defense matches up with Miami's speed.
Lions at Vikings (-6): The Lions have had the benefit of playing in front of very loud crowd at home in each of their first two games. They were 0-8-1 on the road last season. I'm buying that they're a significantly improved team from last season, but I'd like to see them get a road win before I predict one.
Bengals (-5) at Jets: The Bengals are desperate for a win after starting 0-2, but that offensive line is trash. They're probably going to finish this season with a losing record. I'm very tempted to pick the Jets outright here, but I can't do it.
Saints (-3) at Panthers: Baker Mayfield vs. Jameis Winston with four fractures in his back. Hmmm... Whatever the under is, give me that.
Jaguars at Chargers (-7): This is a tough week for survivor pools, as this 7-point spread is the largest of the Week 3 slate of games. I don't think I like picking against Doug Pederson and the Jags in a survivor pool because he's so open to using analytics in high leverage decision-making moments, which makes him dangerous in terms of upset potential. But ultimately, the Chargers are just so much more talented. Plus, I said it Week 1 and I'll say it again — the Jaguars haven't won a road game since 2019. This is the best survivor pool pick of the week, I think, but only because there's little else to choose from.
Update: Justin Herbert is questionable for Sunday with injured ribs, so mayyyybe don't take the Chargers as your survivor pick this week. I don't switch picks against the spread one they're made here, but I'll be switching my survivor pick to the Chiefs.
Packers at Buccaneers (-1.5): This is a matchup that Aaron Rodgers would definitely lose in the playoffs, but he's a beast in the regular season. He'll put up enough points to outscore the Bucs' depleted offense, with Chris Godwin injured and Mike Evans suspended. Give me the Packers in a low-scoring game.
Rams (-3.5) at Cardinals: These are two of the most unpredictable teams in the NFL right now. The Rams have talent all across their roster, but streaky Matt Stafford is running cold at the moment, and who the hell knows what you'll get out of Kyler Murray and the Cardinals from week to week. Just stay away.
Falcons at Seahawks (-1.5): I should know better than to pick this loser Falcons team to win outright on the road against anyone, but this Seahawks team is very bad. I'm killing Atlanta off in next week's Hierarchy out of spite if they let me down.
49ers (-1.5) at Broncos: If Russell Wilson were sitting on the bench and yelling my number, telling me to yell "run or pass," I'd be quietly praying that a piano fell out of the sky on him.
Hahahahahahahahahahahaha pic.twitter.com/Sv1N5g33MH
— Leader with cable (@SullyChiefs) September 20, 2022
Cowboys at Giants (-1): Don't let the 2-0 record fool you. The Giants are still a bad team. They've certainly been upgraded from "laughingstock" status under Dave Gettleman and Joe Judge / Pat Shurmur to at least a competently managed/coached team. But it's going to take time to undo the badness that remains on that roster. The Giants don't have much on either side of the ball, while the Cowboys have demonstrated over the first two weeks that their defense is very good. That should be enough to carry them against the Giants in New Jersey, even if led by Cooper Rush.
This line was originally Giants (-2.5) and I couldn't wait to jump all over the Cowboys on this picks post. It's now down to Giants (-1), which isn't quite as big a bargain, but I'll still bite.
By the way, there appears to be some debate on the better outcome of this game for the Eagles. There's no debate. We'll get into this further in the rooting guide on Sunday, but it's definitively better for the Eagles if the Giants win.
• Last 8 years, ATS: 297-244-13 (0.548)
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