Week 2 NFL picks

For the gambling enthusiasts, here are my Week 2 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Chargers at Chiefs (-4.5): If you saw my NFL predictions a week ago, you know that I like the Chiefs to get back to (and win) the Super Bowl this season. That said, the Chargers are really freaking talented, too, and while I think the Chiefs are more likely to win this game, it's hard to pass up getting 4.5 points. Give me the Chiefs to win, but the Chargers to cover.

Dolphins at Ravens (-3.5): The Ravens had a weird Week 1 game in that they only had 274 yards and 13 first downs (on 13 drives), and yet they owned the Jets from wire to wire. Meanwhile, the Dolphins' defense completely dominated the Patri*ts. These are two playoff-worthy teams with good defenses. I'll take the tried-and-true Ravens, but without much confidence.

Jets at Browns (-6.5): You know you're like the No. 8 announcer team at CBS when you draw Joe Flacco vs. Jacoby Brissett.

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Commanders at Lions (-1.5): Because the NFC is absolutely loaded with bad teams in 2022 (and we can maybe add Dallas to that list now), there's going to be a bad team that somehow wins enough games to earn the right to get smoked by the 2 seed in the playoffs while also hurting their chances of landing a blue chip quarterback prospect. The Commanders and Lions feel like decent bets to be that team.

Ford Field was really loud last Sunday, and if their fans can sustain that intensity a while longer it's a legitimate advantage. So that's worrisome for my Commanders pick here, but in my opinion Washington has the better roster.

Carson Wentz and Jared Goff are a wash, and both teams have good offensive lines. Otherwise, give me the trio of Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Curtis Samuel, who finally showed up last Sunday against Jacksonville. 

Colts (-4) at Jaguars: Lol...

Buccaneers (-2.5) at Saints: The Saints swept the Bucs during each of the last two regular seasons, including a 9-0 shutout of them in 2021, though the Bucs did beat the Saints when it counted, during the 2020 playoffs. Still, the perception remains that the Saints own the Bucs, or something. Do I have that right?

Ultimately, I look at these two rosters, and the Bucs are very clearly the better team, that oh by the way has a defensive coach who knows how to expose flawed quarterbacks. I'll gladly lay 2.5 points in this matchup.

Panthers at Giants (-2): If the Giants can win this game, there's a decent enough chance that they'll start 4-0, with home games against the Cowboys and Bears looming in Weeks 3 and 4. 

The Panthers have the longest losing streak in the NFL, at eight games, and for the second straight week Baker Mayfield is involved in a revenge game. Last week it was Mayfield against his former team. This week, Daniel Jones has a beef to settle, after Mayfield said during a 2019 interview with GQ, "I cannot believe the Giants took Daniel Jones." I mean, me neither, Baker, but you can't say that.

By the way, if you're involved in a lot of grudge matches, there's a pretty good chance you're just a jerk.

Patri*ts (-2.5) at Steelers: The Steelers almost lost on two separate would-be game-winning kicks last Sunday in a game that was mostly dominated by the Bengals: 

But... they sacked Joe Burrow seven times and won the turnover battle 5-0, and so, they won the game.

Mitch Trubisky stinks, but Pittsburgh's defense gets after opposing quarterbacks. The led the NFL with 55 sacks last season, and they're tied for first with those aforementioned seven sacks so far in 2022.

Mac Jones and the Patri*ts offense were frustrated all day last Sunday against the Dolphins' defense. I expect more of the same, even with T.J. Watt out.

Falcons at Rams (-10.5): Matthew Stafford's elbow is a concern, but the Rams sill feel like a pretty safe survivor pick against this loser Falcons team.

Seahawks at 49ers (-8.5): Beware of this game in your survivor pool. The Niners obviously have a better roster than the Seahawks and their backs are against a wall after losing to the trash Bears last week, but they've also been swept by Seattle in each of the last two seasons.

Bengals (-7) at Cowboys: Even if the Cowboys hadn't lost Dak Prescott in their Week 1 matchup against the Bucs, they'd likely still be underdogs in this game, given how shockingly bad their offense was even before Prescott got hurt. The offensive line couldn't pass protect, Ezekiel Elliott had a long rush of seven yards, and CeeDee Lamb had two catches on 11 targets.

I normally don't like big lines like this, but I'll lay the 7.

Texans at Broncos (-10): The Texans had a chance to pull off a big upset Week 1 against the Colts, but Lovie Smith made what will likely be the most cowardly call of the NFL season. Facing a 4th and 3 from the Colts' 49 yard line with 24 seconds left in overtime, Smith opted to punt (!), settling for a tie instead of trying to win the game.

Anyway, the tie remained something of an upset, I guess, but this Texans team is still terrible, and they're not going to win many games this season.  

Cardinals at Raiders (-5.5): I'm tempted to take the Raiders and lay the points against this fraudulent Cardinals team, but 5.5 is too rich for my blood. The Chiefs' passing offense shredded Arizona Week 1, and the Raiders are perfectly capable of doing the same. Davante Adams had 10 catches for 141 yards and a TD in his Las Vegas debut, by the way.

Bears at Packers (-10): Aaron Rodgers has won six straight games over the Bears, throwing 16 TDs vs. 0 INTs. He has also won six straight games over the Bears at Lambeau, throwing 19 TDs vs. 0 INTs.

Titans at Bills (-10): A season ago, the Titans were at their best when they faced good teams. They beat the Bills, Chiefs, Rams, and 49ers. In 2022, they're playing without A.J. Brown on offense and Harold Landry on defense. Both of those losses are going to be devastating to this team. They're not beating the Bills this year.

Vikings at Eagles (-2): Say what you will about Kirk Cousins, but he's the exact type of quarterback who can shred this Jonathan Gannon soft coverage defense, and he has premier playmakers around him in Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and Dalvin Cook. Even the Vikings' offensive line, once the Kryptonite of this offense, seems to be improved, after the team has spent heavy draft resources on that group over the last half decade.

The Eagles' offense should score points, as the Vikings' best defensive feature — the pass rushing duo of Danielle Hunter and Za'Darius Smith — should be neutralized by Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson. But it won't be enough. I'll believe that Gannon's defense can slow a competent offense when I see it, and I haven't seen that yet.

Survivor pick

1. Week 1: Ravens ✔️
2. Week 2: Rams

• Last 8 years, ATS: 297-244-13 (0.548)

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