For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 1 picks. To note, the helmets indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Broncos at Chiefs (-3): Peyton Manning might be done. We saw glimpses of his decline a year ago when the Broncos rightfully became a running team. In their first game against the Ravens, Manning not only displayed a lack of arm strength, but his short to intermediate throws weren't accurate. The Chiefs, meanwhile, do a great job getting after the passer defensively. Offensively, they have a nice skill position trio in Jamaal Charles, Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce. The Andys might be solid picks to win the AFC West in 2015.
Texans at Panthers (-3): For some reason the Texans are thought of as a potential playoff contender. Uh, their quarterbacks are Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett, people! Hoyer is already benched, and in will come Mallett. The Panthers' D should feast for the second week in a row. In Week 1 against the Jags, Carolina held Jacksonville to 3.0 yards per carry and 4.8 yards per pass attempt.
49ers at Steelers (-6): I am very tempted to ride the 49ers bandwagon (population: me), but the Steelers showed me enough offensively against the Patriots that I don't think the Niners can keep up with their sledgehammer run game. Expect Ben Roethlisberger to find Antonio Brown and company all day against the Niners' suspect secondary.
Buccaneers at Saints (-10): It's going to be a really long season for Jameis Winston, who is playing behind an offensive line comprised of two rookies and a bunch of over-the-hill vets. The Bucs are in contention to have the #1 overall pick for the second consecutive draft. This game is an obvious choice for those of you in survivor pools.
Lions at Vikings (-3): Wait, the Vikings are giving three points here? I am thoroughly confused with what people see in this team. The defense is getting better, I suppose, and Teddy Bridgewater gives them some hope for the future, but how are people of the belief that this team is a serious contender in 2015? Give me the Lions, outright.
Cardinals (-2) at Bears: Again, as I noted last week, I think the Cardinals are among the most overrated teams in the NFL, but they're probably on their way to a 2-0 record. The Bears are straight garbage, although give them credit for hanging around with the Packers into the fourth quarter a week ago. Chicago will have their hands full matching up with Arizona's talented trio of receivers.
Patri*ts at Bills (pick 'em): Wow, a pick 'em? I like the Bills' defense, and their run game certainly got off to a good start with the speedy Tyrod Taylor in at quarterback for Buffalo. But are we really putting them in the same class as the Pats already? Offer me a "pick 'em" with Tom Brady vs the Bills, and I'll take Brady 100 times out of 100. Also, the Patri*ts are cheaters, so that always helps.
Chargers at Bengals (-3): When I look at these two teams, Philip Rivers is just so much better than Andy Dalton. Is the rest of the Bengals' roster really that much better that it offsets the difference between the two quarterbacks? In my opinion, no. The Bengals are 13-2-1 at home the last two seasons, however, which is difficult to ignore, so I'll begrudgingly ride with the Bengals.
Titans (-1) at Browns: For the first time in the history of the NFL (probably), a Titans-Browns game is interesting. It'll be Johnny Football vs. Marcus Mariota, a pair of Heisman winners drafted in the first round. One guy is coming off a perfect 158.3 QB rating in his first ever game in the NFL. The other is a jackass who his own teammates don't respect. I'll take the former.
Falcons at Giants (-2): I don't think I've ever seen such awful game management as we saw from the Giants last Sunday night, and that is coming from someone who watched Andy Reid-coached teams for over a decade. Otherwise, my biggest gripe about the Giants in that game was the complete lack of a pressure from their woeful pass rush personnel. Matt Ryan should have all day to stand back, scan the field, and connect with Julio Jones and Roddy White like he did against the Eagles.
Rams (-3.5) at Redskins: Do the Redskins play the Buccaneers this year? Because really, that's the only way I can ever see myself picking the Redskins to win a game this season. Maybe against the Giants? We'll see. Even when they play reasonably well (for the Redskins) like they did Week 1 at home against an average Dolphins team that did not look good, they still find a way to lose. The Redskins are indeed
a dumpster fire.
Dolphins (-6-5) at Jaguars: Jeez, the Dolphins get to start their season with consecutive road games against the Redskins and Jaguars? Talk about an early season gift from the schedule-makers. They should emerge 2-0 from that, with all eight home games still on their slate. That said, the Dolphins looked bad last Sunday, as they were outplayed by the Redskins for the better part of the day. They simply made just enough plays to survive. But that "unblockable" Dolphins defensive line was blocked with ease all day by the Redskins' OL.
Ravens (-6) at Raiders: Hey look. Terrell Suggs took a cheap shot on Sam Bradford's knees, and then Suggs goes out with a torn Achilles Week 1. How's that for karma? (Not that I'm one to take glee in the misfortune of accused women-beaters). Anyway, the Raiders got pummeled Week 1 at home by the Bengals, and they very much still look like the Raiders.
Cowboys at Eagles (-5): The Cowboys will be without Dez Bryant, Greg Hardy, Rolando McClain, Randy Gregory, and possibly starting LG Ronald Leary. If the Eagles can't take of business against the Cowboys Sunday afternoon, you can hold off thinking of them as "Super Bowl contenders" for a while. This is a must win, in my opinion. 0-2 would be an enormously difficult hole to climb out of, with the Cowboys having essentially a 2.5 game advantage on Philly.
Seahawks at Packers (-3.5): The Packers HAD THEM in the NFC Championship Game, until they botched an offsides kick recovery. This will be a huge revenge game, with the Seahawks already on the ropes to some degree after playing terribly defensively against a below-average Rams team Week 1. Outstanding Sunday night game.
Jets at Colts (-7): The Colts looked anemic Week 1 against the Bills, and they'll face their second consecutive opponent with a new coaching staff in the Jets Week 2. Luckily for the Colts, they play in the trash AFC South, so they can afford an early season hiccup or two. I suspect they'll bounce back at home against the Jets.
Picks against the spread: Pats (pick 'em), Titans (-1), Falcons (+2), Lions (+3), Cowboys (+5)
Survivor pick: Saints. Teams used already: Cowboys.
Last week, straight up: 11-5
Last week, ATS: 3-3
Follow Jimmy on Twitter: @JimmyKempski
