December 28, 2023
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 17 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Jets at Browns (-7.5): There are so many backup quarterbacks playing in Week 17 of the 2023 season:
• Jets: Trevor Siemian (QB3)
• Browns: Joe Flacco (QB4)
• Falcons: Taylor Heinicke (QB2)
• Jaguars: (Maybe) C.J. Beathard (QB2)
• Raiders: Aidan O'Connell (QB2)
• Colts: Gardner Minshew (QB2)
• Giants: Tyrod Taylor (QB2)
• Patriots: Bailey Zappe (QB2)
• Commanders: Jacoby Brissett (QB2)
• Steelers: Mason Rudolph (QB3)
• Bengals: Jake Browning (QB2)
• Chargers: Easton Stick (QB2)
• Broncos: Jarrett Stidham (QB2)
• Vikings: Nick Mullens (QB2) or Jaren Hall (QB3)
That's almost 45 percent of the league.
On the one hand, there were a lot of atrocious roughing the passer calls this past weekend. On the other hand, there are a lot of unwatchable games because the backup quarterbacks suck.
Lions at Cowboys (-6): This game will be played on Saturday night, and it has big implications for the Eagles, but we'll have more on that later in the week.
I'll try to keep this matchup simple. The Cowboys have a good offense, a good defense, and good special teams. The Lions have a good offense, a mediocre defense, and shaky special teams. Therefore, I will take the Cowboys.
Cardinals at Eagles (-10.5): The Cardinals' Week 1 defensive starters, with players on IR in red, players on the injury report in orange, and players no longer on the team or who have lost their starting jobs crossed out:
• DL: L.J. Collier (IR)
• NT: Leki Fotu (IR)
• DL: Jonathan Ledbetter (injury report)
• OLB: Victor Dimukeje (injury report)
• LB: Kyzir White (IR)
• LB: Josh Woods (IR)
• OLB: Zaven Collins (injury report)
• CB Marco Wilson
• CB Kei'Trel Clark
• S Budda Baker
• S Jalen Thompson
That defense was never good to begin with, and now they're also extremely depleted. They have been especially bad against the run in recent weeks:
| Opponent | Rushes | Yards | YPC | TD |
| Bears, Week 16 | 39 | 250 | 6.4 | 2 |
| 49ers, Week 15 | 26 | 144 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Steelers, Week 14 | 31 | 130 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Rams, Week 13 | 33 | 228 | 6.9 | 1 |
That would be 188 rushing yards allowed per game.
The Cardinals' offense isn't awful. They have a talented quarterback and some decent offensive weapons. But they have arguably the worst defense in the NFL.
Falcons at Bears (-3): Taylor Heinicke is 13-13-1 as a starter during the regular season the last three years with the Commanders and Falcons, both bad teams, so I trust him more than Desmond Ridder.
But the Bears have won three of four, and have given up just 14.8 points per game during that span. If they had played all season the way they have played of late they'd be competing for the playoffs right now.
Panthers at Jaguars (-6.5): A month ago, the Jaguars were 8-3, and held the 1 seed spot in the AFC, with a two-game cushion in the AFC South. Four straight losses later, and they're now tied with the Colts and Texans at 8-7. There isn't a team in the NFL that needs a win more desperately than them.
Raiders at Colts (-3.5): The New York Times has the Colts as 54% likely to make the playoffs. That rises to 72% with a win. The Raiders are currently at 15% to make the playoffs. That rises to 36% with a win.
So, you know, both of these teams' playoff hopes are still alive. I think I like the Raiders' roster more, so give me them with no conviction whatsoever.
Rams (-4.5) at Giants: Hmm. Why is this line only 4.5 points? Even with two gift touchdowns on Christmas, the Giants still lost by 8 to an Eagles team that still isn't playing all that well. On the season, only one of their losses has been by fewer than 5 points.
Meanwhile, the Rams are playing really good football right now, having won five of six, with the one loss coming to the Ravens in overtime in Baltimore. This feels like Vegas is baiting us into a Rams pick here, but I'll still bite.
Dolphins at Ravens (-3.5): This is the best game of the week. This time last week the 49ers were thought of as the big bad bullies of the NFL, and then the Ravens (figuratively) punched them in the mouth. Now they have the juice.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, are once again fighting back against what they are calling "narratives" about their team:
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel on any outside narrative that his team isn't tough and is "cute":
— David Furones (@DavidFurones_) December 27, 2023
"I haven't checked lately, but I think we're pretty good at stopping the run and running the football. That's not generally associated with cuteness."
Last week they fought against the idea that they couldn't beat good teams, before they finally got a win over the Cowboys. So, we'll see. I trust the Ravens more than I trust the Dolphins.
Patriots at Bills (-13): Next.
Saints at Buccaneers (-2.5): If the Buccaneers beat the Saints, then they will clinch the NFC South, and the Saints will be eliminated, creating a couple of meaningless games Week 18 between the Bucs-Panthers and Saints-Falcons. So, uh, maybe some weird things go against the Bucs in this game.
49ers (-12.5) at Commanders: The Commanders benched Sam Howell for Jacoby Brissett, which means that there's a pretty good chance that they will have a new Week 1 starter in 2024. If so, it will be their eighth different Week 1 starter in as many seasons:
• 2017: Kirk Cousins
• 2018: Alex Smith
• 2019: Case Keenum
• 2020: Dwayne Haskins
• 2021: Ryan Fitzpatrick
• 2022: Carson Wentz
• 2023: Sam Howell
• 2024: ???
The 49ers also benched starter Brock Purdy last week, but he'll be back starting in this matchup.
Titans at Texans (-5): I'd rather see C.J. Stroud in the playoffs than Gardner Minshew, Mason Rudolph, or Jake Browning. I'm just picking the Texans on pure entertainment value.
Steelers at Seahawks (-3.5): The Steelers got back in the win column Week 16 against the Bengals, but in the three games before that they lost to the Colts, Patriots and Cardinals by a combined score of 75-41. 🤢
Bengals at Chiefs (-7): This game looked like a Week 17 banger before the season began, but with Joe Burrow out and the Chiefs looking mortal, not so much, even with the Bengals still playing for their playoff lives and the Chiefs trying to close out the AFC West.
Chargers at Broncos (-3.5): If Russell Wilson can't pass a physical in March, then he will be guaranteed $37 million in 2025. The Broncos do not want to be on the hook for that money, so they have decided to shut him down for the season. You can check out that whole sitch, via Dianni Russini here, if interested.
The Eagles were interested in trading for him or Deshaun Watson during the 2022 offseason. Neither wanted to play in Philly, so it never materialized. Wilson preferred Denver, which now has the second longest playoff appearance drought in the NFL. That was a big mistake by him, IMO, and a huge bullet dodged by the Eagles. (Personal accountability — I thought the Eagles should have traded for him. I mean, not at the cost that Denver paid, to be clear. I wouldn't have done that. But I did think he'd be a better option than Jalen Hurts. Oops.)
Anyway, this will be Easton Stick vs. Jarrett Stidham. Wooo!
Packers at Vikings (-2): If Nick Mullens starts this game, I love the Packers in this matchup. If Jaren Hall starts, I merely like them a little. Either way, give me Green Bay, and sure, I'll take a couple points.
Also, who thought this would be a good Week 17 Sunday Night Football game before the season began? And why was it not flexed out?
• Last 9 years, ATS: 384-332-19 (0.535)
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