December 28, 2016
Charles Rex Arbogast/AP
Matt Barkley can redeem his crappy tenure with the Eagles by delivering them a better draft pick on Sunday.
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 17 NFL picks. To note, the helmets indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Ravens at Bengals (-2.5): Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis was reportedly going to retire, although that highly flimsy source was Washington moron Chris Cooley. According to Ed Werder of ESPN, however, Lewis intends on returning. Have I successfully distracted you from providing actual analysis for this meaningless game? Yes? Good.
Texans at Titans (-3): For the second straight year, the Texans will be the worst team in the playoffs, after having clinched the God-awful AFC South with a point differential of -42. They're locked in as the four seed. I'll like the Titans here to come out and show Houston that they intend on not allowing them to win the division again next year, even without Marcus Mariota.
Panthers at Buccaneers (-6): The Buccaneers are still mathematically alive for the playoffs, but they need a ton of help. First, they need to win this game, and then hope the Lions beat the Packers. That would tie them with Green Bay for the final wildcard spot.
That's where the tie-breaker process gets fun. OK, maybe not "fun" so much. Tedious, maybe?
The fourth tie-breaker would be "strength of victory," which is determined by taking the teams the Bucs and Packers beat and totaling up those teams' win-loss records. Whoever has the better "strength of victory" gets in. Currently the Packers have the advantage there, but the Bucs could overtake them if the following results occurred:
Acme Packing Company has a far more detailed and impressive breakdown of the above if you want to waste a half hour of your life.
Anyway, the Bucs are still mathematically alive, so give me them.
Jaguars at Colts (-4.5): I'm actually tempted to take the Jaguars, who looked like a competent football team last week after firing Gus Bradley, but I just can't get myself to do it.
Patri*ts (-9.5) at Dolphins: Both of these teams are in, with the Patriots having slightly more to play for. The Patri*ts still need this game to get home field advantage throughout the playoffs, while the Dolphins are playing for the right to face the crappy Texans instead of the Steelers in the first round, if they win and the Chiefs lose. I'll take Deflatey McGee and Filmy McFilmerson to lock down home field advantage, where it is easier for them to cheat.
Bears at Vikings (-5): If the Vikings lose, the Eagles' first-round pick can be as high as ninth overall. If they win, it can be as low as 18th overall. The Bears beat the Vikes earlier this season, but this time around they're starting Matt Barkley.
Bills (-3.5) at Jets: The Bills fired their head coach this week, while the Jets may do the same at the conclusion of the season.
Cowboys at Eagles (-4): The Cowboys say they're playing their starters this Sunday. Based on the point spread for this game, Vegas disagrees. Personally, I think the Eagles will see a healthy dose of Mark Sanchez in the second half of this game, and maybe sooner. The Eagles ride off into the sunset with a 7-9 record, same as last year. Eagles 29-24.
Browns at Steelers (-5.5): The Steelers are locked into the No. 3 seed, and have nothing to play for. Meanwhile, THE BROWNS WON A GAME, and with the 49ers winning last week, they still keep the No. 1 overall pick. Mission accomplished. Pack it in, Brownies.
Saints at Falcons (-6.5): The Falcons aren't discussed much when we think of the teams that could represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. It's usually the Cowboys and Seahawks that get the most pub. However, Atlanta has outscored their last three opponents 116-43, and they'll secure the No. 2 seed with a win over the Saints.
Giants at Redskins (-8): The Giants are locked in as the No. 5 seed, and they have said that they'll play their starters this week in Washington. Again, Vegas disagrees based on the spread.
Cardinals (-6) at Rams: Unlike the Jags, the Rams didn't get that "new coach energy" after firing Jeff Fisher. Instead, they lost at home to the dreadful Niners.
Raiders at Broncos (-1.5): Both Super Bowl participants last season are out of the playoffs. Obviously, the Broncos are favored here because the Raiders are starting Matt McGloin in place of the injured Derek Carr. I'm picking the Raiders to rally behind McGloin on the strength of an outstanding run-blocking offensive line.
Chiefs (-5.5) at Chargers: The Chiefs can still secure a first-round bye with a win and a Raiders loss. Meanwhile, the Chargers lost to the Browns last week.
Seahawks (-9.5) at 49ers: The Hawks can still get a first-round bye with a win and a Falcons loss. Could this be Chip Kelly's last game in the pros as a head coach?
Packers (-3.5) at Detroit: This is the main event, as the winner of this game takes the NFC North. The Packers have won five straight and looked impressive in doing so, while the Lions have dropped two straight as Matthew Stafford injured the middle finger on his throwing hand.
BYE: All byes complete.
• Picks against the spread: Steelers (-5.5), Falcons (-6.5), Packers (-3.5).
• 2016 season, straight up: 149-89-2 (.625)
• 2016 season, ATS: 37-31 (.544)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
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