December 21, 2023
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 16 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Saints at Rams (-3.5): The Rams have won four of five, with their one loss coming via an overtime punt return against the Ravens.
The Saints' games against teams with a 0.500 record or better this season:
Also, holy crap, those are the Saints' hardest games this season?!?
Bengals (-2) at Steelers: As noted the last few weeks, this Bengals roster is very good, and they have responded in the wake of losing Burrow for the season. I don't love the matchup of the Bengals' offensive tackles against the Steelers' edge rushers, but otherwise the Bengals are the much better team.
Bills (-12) at Chargers: It's been clear for a while that Brandon Staley was a fraud, and he was mercifully let go after one last defensive meltdown last Thursday night against the Raiders.
The Bills are rolling, and have two easy games against the Chargers and Patriots before their season finale in Miami, which (maybe?) could be for the AFC East title?
Commanders at Jets (-3): Oh my God, this video is pathetic:
From The Insiders on #NFLPlus: #Jets QB Aaron Rodgers will be activated. A pretty cool move for NYJ. We dove into why... pic.twitter.com/xSuSPCM0PR
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 20, 2023
Transcribed:
"Aaron Rodgers did it, right? He did become the fastest player to ever tear his Achilles and then come back in the same season. He is officially activated... I think for him as far as personal goals, this is very cool. It's not what he imagined. He's not leading the team into the playoffs, but he is at least active. And if you wondered what impact Rodgers has to his teammates, this really shows it."
Rodgers didn't do a damn thing. He's not ready to play, and even said so himself. He was only activated to the 53-man roster, because, um, ego? And his activation meant that someone had to be waived to make room for him. That poor bastard was FB Nick Bawden. Merry Christmas, Nick! 🎅🎄
And Ian Rapoport thinks his teammates will respect him for this?!? 🤯
Aaron Rodgers is a scumbag who would rather whore for attention than allow a teammate keep his roster spot.
Also, shame on the Jets for activating this loser.
Update: Bawden was re-signed to the practice squad and is expected to be activated on gameday. Jets fans are apparently taking victory laps as a result of this development, as if Rodgers' elevation to the 53-man roster is somehow now fine and normal and not ego-driven. Of course, all Bowden's addition to the practice squad means is that someone some other guy on the practice squad will get unnecessarily whacked instead.
Browns (-2.5) at Texans: Joe Flacco vs. Case Keenum, huh? I think I'm picking the Texans here for no other reason than that they'll be more entertaining to watch in the playoffs with C.J. Stroud (when healthy again) than the Browns, but to be clear I have no strong opinion who will win this game.
Lions (-3) at Vikings: I don't think the Lions are special by any stretch but laying 3 points with them feels like a no-brainer bargain against Nick Mullens.
Packers (-4.5) at Panthers: The Panthers' two wins this season came by scores of 15-13 and 9-7. The Packers have kinda choked the last two weeks, but I expect them to at least put some points on the board in Carolina.
Colts at Falcons (-1): Desmond Ridder started the first 8 games of the season, before being benched in-game for Taylor Heinicke. Heinicke then started the next two games, before he was injured against the Cardinals and replaced by Ridder. Ridder wasn't awful to close out that game (even if it was only against the 32nd ranked defensive DVOA Cardinals), so the Falcons gave him his job back. Ridder then started the next four games, stunk, and has now lost his starting job in favor of Heinicke for the second time this season.
As a reminder, the Falcons drafted a running back 8th overall.
Seahawks (-2.5) at Titans: The Seahawks are obviously the more talented team here, but they've lost five straight on the road, while the Titans are 4-3 at home.
Jaguars at Buccaneers (-1): Like the Eagles, the fighting Dougs have lost three straight, and looked bad in the process. BUT... I like their chances of rebounding on the road, where they have beaten a bunch of middling teams like the Colts, Saints, Steelers, and Texans.
Baker Mayfield had a monster performance Week 15 (21-28-381-4-0), so now feels like a good time to let the suckers overvalue him.
Cardinals at Bears (-4): The Bears should be favored by more than 4 in this game, in my opinion, but they hold the No. 1 overall pick via the 2-12 Panthers, and the Cardinals are only one game "behind" at 3-11. A Cardinals win would benefit them.
But ultimately, the GM and the head coach are fighting for their jobs, so I can't imagine they'll be interested in tanking.
Cowboys at Dolphins (-1.5): The Dolphins are 0-3 against teams with winning records (BUF, PHI, KC), and their offense only scored 44 points combined in those three games. The Cowboys are 3-4 on the road, with their three wins coming against a trio of teams (NYG, CAR, LAC) with a combined record of 12-30. One of these teams is going to have to hear a negative narrative about them grow after this weekend.
The Cowboys' ability to win on the road is concerning, but they are very clearly the better team in this matchup, and it's probably not really all that close, right? Give me the Cowboys outright, and sure, I'll take a point and a half.
Patriots at Broncos (-6.5): The Patriots reportedly complained that kicking balls were underinflated during their matchup against the Chiefs last Sunday. (You can fill in your favorite example of irony here.)
As for this game, who cares?
Raiders at Chiefs (-10): The Raiders scored 0 points Week 14 and 63 points Week 15, so I don't normally like picking (or picking against) wildly inconsistent teams like that.
But, the Chiefs have scored at least 30 points against the Raiders in 8 straight games, so I do trust that.
Giants at Eagles (-12): The Eagles really couldn't ask for a more ideal "get right" opponent in the NFL than the Giants.
• Run game needs a boost? The Giants' run defense stinks.
• Passing game stagnant? The Giants' corners are bad, and their blitz-heavy defense rarely ever gets to the quarterback.
• Pass defense can't stop anyone? The Giants' receivers are as unthreatening as it gets.
• Pass rush disappointing? The Giants are on pace to give up the second-most sacks in a season in NFL history.
The Eagles have absolutely owned the Giants over the last 15 or so years, and they should win this game comfortably, but, you know, we'll see.
Ravens at 49ers (-4.5): The 49ers are significantly better than every team in the NFL.
• Last 9 years, ATS: 382-329-19 (0.536)
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